Estimating cannabinoids sold from marijuana sales data in Washington state Watch me pull a number out of my hat Jason Williams1 with assistance from Caleb Banta-Green1 & Dan Burgard2 1Alcohol & Drug Abuse Institute University of Washington 2Chemistry Department University of Puget Sound 20 March 2018 / ADAI Brown Bag Jason Williams (ADAI) Measuring THC 1 / 42 Acknowledgments Thanks to: The Washington State Dedicated Marijuana Fund for research at the University of Washington for funding support Looking Glass Analytics for flattening the database Jason Williams (ADAI) Measuring THC 2 / 42 Today’s outline 1 Problems Why would we want to know how much THC or other cannabinoids are being sold? How it should work So what’s the problem? 2 Solutions What do we need? Our approach 3 Results! King County, June 2016 Pierce County, June 2016 Jason Williams (ADAI) Measuring THC 3 / 42 Outline 1 Problems Why would we want to know how much THC or other cannabinoids are being sold? How it should work So what’s the problem? 2 Solutions What do we need? Our approach 3 Results! King County, June 2016 Pierce County, June 2016 Jason Williams (ADAI) Measuring THC 4 / 42 Why measure cannabinoids? Important questions Policy analysis To what extent does the THC sold via licensed stores account for the THC metabolite found in wastewater, implying displacement of the illegal market? Marketing studies To what extent is the market in Washington moving to higher potency products? Microeconomics What is the price elasticity of THC potency? Public health How much THC is out there, and where? Jason Williams (ADAI) Measuring THC 5 / 42 This should be easy We have the data... Washington state Liquor and Cannabis Board (LCB) mandates use of a seed-to-sale database to Track every plant Follow each plant as it is refined and turned into products Track testing results for every product All to demonstrate products are not being diverted. Also, to facilitate excise tax collection, etc. Jason Williams (ADAI) Measuring THC 6 / 42 This should be easy We have the data... Washington state Liquor and Cannabis Board (LCB) mandates use of a seed-to-sale database to Track every plant Follow each plant as it is refined and turned into products Track testing results for every product All to demonstrate products are not being diverted. Also, to facilitate excise tax collection, etc. Jason Williams (ADAI) Measuring THC 6 / 42 Outline 1 Problems Why would we want to know how much THC or other cannabinoids are being sold? How it should work So what’s the problem? 2 Solutions What do we need? Our approach 3 Results! King County, June 2016 Pierce County, June 2016 Jason Williams (ADAI) Measuring THC 7 / 42 How it should work Alcohol example Item Packages Sold Package Count ABV% Volume Per Count (L) Alcohol (L) Goodstuff Vodka 1 1 40 1.75 0.7 Sawbuck Red 2 1 15.2 .75 0.228 Lily White 1 1 13.8 .75 0.1035 Crusher Lager 1 6 5.2 .355 0.11076 Jason Williams (ADAI) Measuring THC 8 / 42 How it should work Alcohol example Total liters of pure alcohol sold = L of Alcohol For each product i, L of Product × L of Product = Pn ABVi i=1 Packages Soldi × Package Counti × Volume Per Counti × 100 Jason Williams (ADAI) Measuring THC 9 / 42 How it should work THC example With marijuana, you have to: Account for different measures of size: Grams Servings per container, or package count Volume Match potency unit of measure to product measure Percent by weight mg per serving Percent by volume Jason Williams (ADAI) Measuring THC 10 / 42 How it should work THC example Determined by: Manufacturer Lab LCB Store Item Package Count (L THC Potency Packages/ THC (mg) for liquids) Potency UOM Grams Sold HazyNut Brownies 1 5.05 mg/unit 2 10.1 HazyNut Brownies 10 5.05 mg/unit 3 151.5 VapoRide Concentrate 0.1 75 mg/L 3 22.5 Hop No Hop Infusion 0.25 10 mg/L 2 5.0 Jumbo Java K-Cups 6 4.85 mg/unit 1 29.1 Slow Dive Sativa 1 24.56 % by 0.5 122.8 weight Emotion Lotion 5oz tube 0.148 300 mg/L 1 44.4 UOM: unit of measure Jason Williams (ADAI) Measuring THC 11 / 42 Outline 1 Problems Why would we want to know how much THC or other cannabinoids are being sold? How it should work So what’s the problem? 2 Solutions What do we need? Our approach 3 Results! King County, June 2016 Pierce County, June 2016 Jason Williams (ADAI) Measuring THC 12 / 42 So what’s the problem? Solid edibles PackagesSold TotalTHC THC CBD THCA RetailProductName WholesaleProductName 5 4.58 4.36 4.43 0.24 Oakor 1:1 Slips 1:1 Slips Jason Williams (ADAI) Measuring THC 13 / 42 So what’s the problem? Solid edibles PackagesSold TotalTHC THC CBD THCA RetailProductName WholesaleProductName 5 4.58 4.36 4.43 0.24 Oakor 1:1 Slips 1:1 Slips Assuming this is 4.58mg of THC per slip, did this sale amount to 22.9mg, or 458? Jason Williams (ADAI) Measuring THC 14 / 42 So what’s the problem? Solid edibles PackagesSold TotalTHC THC CBD THCA RetailProductName WholesaleProductName 1 0.006 0.06 0.05 0 Catapult Decaf Individual Catapult Decaf Individual 1 0.11 0.06 0.05 0 Catapult Decaf Individual Catapult Decaf Individual 1 0.9 0.9 0.85 0 RCC010D Dark Choc CBD 3- RCC010D Dark Choc CBD 3- Pack Pack 1 0.9 0.9 0.85 0 EH 4.20 Bar 3pk CBD Dark RCC010D Dark Choc CBD 3- Choc. 30mg Pack 1 0.91 0.91 0 0 RCZ010 Dark Choc Hazelnut RCZ010 Dark Choc Hazelnut 2 0.92 0.91 0.01 0 Peanut Butter Cup Peanut Butter Cup Jason Williams (ADAI) Measuring THC 15 / 42 string87 10.37 mg / g Accreditation No. 73653 ISO / IEC 17025:2005 ACCREDITATED COMPANY Certificate No. L12-227 Medical Cannabis A8599C CLIENT GFarmaLabs STRAIN Blue Diamond SAMPLE TYPE Flower DATE OF ANALYSIS 2/28/2017 CSA LAB ID NO. D06250687 RECEIVED ON 2/24/2017 SoSAMPLE what’s ID NO. the problem?NA EXPIRATION DATE 3/29/2017 LOT NO. NA TEST METHODS HPLC-002 MOISTURE CONTENT 9.5 % WATER ACTIVITY 0.371 CANNABINOID CONCENTRATION (mg/g) PERCENT by MASS Delta 9 Tetrahydrocannabinol D9 THC 10.37 1.04% Delta 9 Tetrahydrocannabinol A D9 THCA 220.22 22.02% Cannabidiol CBD <MDL 0.00% Cannabidiol Acid CBDA <MDL 0.00% Cannabinol CBN <MDL 0.00% Cannabigerol CBG <MDL 0.00% Cannabichromene CBC 0.38 0.04% Delta 8 Tetrahydrocannabinol D8 THC <MDL 0.00% Cannabigerol Acid CBGA 5.48 0.55% Tetrahydrocannabivarin THCV <MDL 0.00% Total Cannabinoids 23.65 % Jason Williams (ADAI) Measuring THC 16 / 42 Yeast & Mold Count NOT REQUESTED Aerobic Bacteria Count NOT REQUESTED Total Coliform Enumeration NOT REQUESTED Bile Tolerant Gram - Negative Bacteria NOT REQUESTED E. coli NOT REQUESTED Salmonella NOT REQUESTED So what’s the problem? Solid edibles PackagesSold TotalTHC THC CBD THCA RetailProductName WholesaleProductName 1 0 5.12 0 0 BLACKBERRY chocolate 10HBB - HYBRID Blackberry Choc 5mg x 2/pack (10mg) 1 0 0 0 0 FW Hot Cocoa Mocha Catapult Hot Cocoa Java Sin- gle Serving 1 0.03 0.03 0 0 FW Hot Chocolate Catapult Hot Cocoa Java Sin- gle Serving 2 0 8.4 0 0 Combo_TRIPLE_30mg Combo_TRIPLE_30mg 2 0.2 0.2 2.16 0 Capsule CBD 10:1- 10mg (10 Capsule CBD 10:1- 10mg (10 Serve) Serve) 1 0 9.41 9.41 0 Tomato Basil Soup 1 Box Tomato Basil Soup 1 Box Jason Williams (ADAI) Measuring THC 17 / 42 So what’s the problem? Liquid edibles PackagesSold TotalTHC THC CBD THCA RetailProductName WholesaleProductName 1 5.12 5.12 0.45 0 SM 50mg Dank Drizzle Dank Drizzle 1 5.12 5.12 0.45 0 SM 100mg Dank Drizzle Dank Drizzle 1 0.0112 0.0112 0 0 OC SENSI Northwest Berry Northwest Berry Lemonade, 100mg 16oz, 100mg 4 0.98 0.95 0 0.02 ZootBlast - 30mg Single ZootBlast - 30mg Single 1 0.95 0.95 0 0 ETHOS Oral Spray Create Create(10ml) 1 1.05 1.05 0 0 Tincture Natural Tincture Natural 1 78.7 78.7 3.57 0 ETHOS Water Tincture Jour- Journey(1oz) ney Jason Williams (ADAI) Measuring THC 18 / 42 So what’s the problem? Liquid edibles PackagesSold TotalTHC THC CBD THCA RetailProductName WholesaleProductName 1 5.12 5.12 0.45 0 SM 50mg Dank Drizzle Dank Drizzle 1 5.12 5.12 0.45 0 SM 100mg Dank Drizzle Dank Drizzle 1 53.9 53.9 95.9 0 PTNZ - Dropperz - CBD PTNZ - Dropperz - CBD Honey Lemon 100mg Honey Lemon 100mg 1 23.7 23.7 28.3 0 FAIRHAVEN RCBD1-60 FAIRHAVEN RCBD1-60 12.19 12.19 1 54.19 54.19 0 0 Strawberry Lemonade, 12 oz, Strawberry Lemonade, 12 oz, 60 mg 60 mg 1 59.94 59.94 0 0 Strawberry Lemonade, 12oz, Strawberry Lemonade, 12oz, 80mg 80mg 1 54.4 54.4 69.3 0 BALLARD D27-CBD 5.11 BALLARD D27-CBD 5.11 Jason Williams (ADAI) Measuring THC 19 / 42 So what’s the problem? Concentrates GramsSold TotalTHC THC CBD THCA RetailProductName WholesaleProductName 1 1.4 0.2 0 1.4 Royal THC Vape Pink Pas- Royal THC Vape Pink Pas- sion sion 1 1.4 0.2 0 1.4 Royal THC Vape God Bud Royal THC Vape God Bud 1 39.34 0.61 44.16 0 CCC KIEF 1 Kief 1.155642023 98.4 30.1 68.3 0 Aliens on Moonshine Clear Aliens on Moonshine Clear 1 97.5 51.6 41.9 4.6 White Widow Clear White Widow Clear 1 97.3 96.75 3.6 0.6 GG - Sugar Wax - 1.0 gram GG - Sugar Wax - 1.0 gram package package Jason Williams (ADAI) Measuring THC 20 / 42 So what’s the problem? Concentrates GramsSold TotalTHC THC CBD THCA RetailProductName WholesaleProductName 1 1.4 0.2 0 1.4 Royal THC Vape Pink Pas- Royal THC Vape Pink Pas- sion sion 1 1.4 0.2 0 1.4 Royal THC Vape God Bud Royal THC Vape God Bud 1 39.34 0.61 44.16 0 CCC KIEF 1 Kief 1.155642023 98.4 30.1 68.3 0 Aliens on Moonshine Clear Aliens on Moonshine Clear 1 97.5 51.6 41.9 4.6 White Widow Clear White Widow Clear 1 97.3 96.75 3.6 0.6 GG - Sugar Wax - 1.0 gram GG - Sugar Wax - 1.0 gram package package 100.95% cannabinoids! Jason Williams (ADAI) Measuring THC 21 / 42 So what’s the problem? Topicals PackagesSold TotalTHC THC CBD THCA RetailProductName WholesaleProductName 2 0 0 0.45 0 Topical Flow Gel Topical Flow Gel 1