Evaluation of EU Cooperation with Yemen 2002-12 Final Report Volume II – Annexes March 2015 ___________ Evaluation carried out on behalf of the European Commission Development and Cooperation EuropeAid Consortium composed by ADE, COWI Leader of the Consortium: ADE Contact Person: Edwin CLERCKX [email protected] Framework Contract No EVA 2011/Lot 4 Specific Contract N°2012/306861/2 Evaluation of EU Cooperation with Yemen 2002-12 This evaluation was commissioned by the Evaluation Unit of the Directorate-General for Development and Cooperation – EuropeAid (European Commission) Due to the prevailing security situation in 2014, this evaluation was undertaken without a field phase on the ground in Yemen Team: Dane Rogers (Team Leader), Ginny Hill, Jon Bennett, Helen Lackner, Rana Khalil, David Fleming This report has been prepared in collaboration with 12 English Business Park, English Close, Hove, BN3 7ET United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0)1273 765250 Fax: +44 (0)1273 765251 Email: [email protected] www.itad.com The opinions expressed in this document represent the authors’ points of view, which are not necessarily shared by the European Commission or by the authorities of the countries involved. © Cover picture right: Sana’a bab al yemen. Photo Credit: Helen Lackner Evaluation of EU Cooperation with Yemen Final Report – Annexes – March 2015 Evaluation of EU Cooperation with Yemen Final Report – Annexes – March 2015 Evaluation of EU Cooperation with Yemen Final Report Annexes, March 2015 TABLE OF CONTENTS Part 1: Annexes framing the evaluation ................................................................................................. 1 Annex 1: Evaluation Terms Of Reference .......................................................................................... 3 Annex 2: Evaluation Questions with Judgement Criteria, Indicators and Methods ......................... 13 Annex 3: Methodological Approach ................................................................................................ 23 Annex 4: List of Persons Met ........................................................................................................... 29 Annex 5: List of Documents Consulted ............................................................................................ 31 Part 2: Annexes setting the scene .......................................................................................................... 43 Annex 6: Country Contextual Analysis ............................................................................................ 45 Annex 7: Timeline of Relevant EU Policies, Strategies and Instruments together with Government Policies and Events in Yemen ..................................................................................... 53 Part 3: Annexes informing our findings ............................................................................................... 57 Annex 8: Inventory of Development Cooperation, 2002-12 ............................................................ 59 Annex 9: Intervention Logic Analysis ............................................................................................ 101 Annex 10: Monographs .................................................................................................................. 115 1. Evolutions in the EU’s approach to state-building 2. EU contribution to resilience – the cases of the Social Welfare Fund and the Social Fund for Development 3. EU responsiveness and Private Sector Development in Yemen Evaluation of EU Cooperation with Yemen Final Report – Annexes – March 2015 Evaluation of EU Cooperation with Yemen Final Report – Annexes – March 2015 Part 1: Annexes framing the evaluation 1 Evaluation of EU Cooperation with Yemen Final Report – Annexes – March 2015 2 Evaluation of EU Cooperation with Yemen Final Report – Annexes – March 2015 ANNEX 1: EVALUATION TERMS OF REFERENCE EUROPEAN COMMISSION Directorate-General for Development and Cooperation — EuropeAid Quality and Impact – Evaluation Evaluation of the European Union’s cooperation with Yemen Country Level Evaluation 3 Evaluation of EU Cooperation with Yemen Final Report – Annexes – March 2015 1. Mandate and Objectives Systematic and timely evaluation of its programmes and activities is a priority 1 of the European Commission, including legislation and other non-spending activities.2 Evaluation is key to account for the management of allocated funds, to inform decision making, and to contribute to improving development policy and practice. Of great importance is the focus on the outcomes and impact of European Union (EU) actions in the context of its evolving cooperation policy with an increasing emphasis on result-oriented approaches.3 The main objectives of the evaluation are: to provide the relevant external cooperation services of the European Union and the wider public with an overall independent assessment of the European Union’s past and current cooperation and partnership relations with Yemen. to identify key lessons and to provide recommendations in order to improve the current and future strategies, programmes and actions of the European Union. 1.1 Evaluation users The EU Delegation in Yemen will be developing its next long-term programming during the course of 2015, and will use the findings and recommendations of this evaluation to contribute to that process. Direct evaluation users also include EU management in Brussels, EU policy/thematic units, other EU Delegations working in fragile contexts, Yemeni authorities and Partners. 2. Background 2.1. Country context The Republic of Yemen lies in the South-West of the Arabian Peninsula, with Saudi Arabia to the north, Red Sea to the west, the Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea to the south and Oman to the east. It is the 50th largest country in the world in terms of its surface (527,968 km2) and has a sizeable coast line both to the Red Sea and to the Gulf of Aden/Arabian Sea (1,906km). It has a population of approximately 25 million, with 70% living in rural areas, and 50% are under 15 years old. A low income country and one of the poorest in the Arab world, with a GDP per capita of US$ 2,306, Yemen ranks 154th out of 187 countries in the UN Human Development Index. It is unlikely to meet any of the Millennium Development Goals by 2015. Despite the high number of people living in rural areas and 50% of the population being active in agriculture and two thirds of the population dependent on agriculture for their livelihood, agriculture makes up only 11% of the GDP (Yemen imports 90% of its wheat and 100% of its rice, both main staples for the population, indeed it has been a food importer since the 1960s). In fact, 80% of Yemen’s poor live in rural areas, mostly made up of scattered villages of less than 5,000 inhabitants, which exacerbates the problem of adequate service delivery (water use, sanitation, healthcare and education). Women are the most vulnerable in all groups. Yemen’s formal economy is mainly based on fossil fuels and some industry, but it faces depleting oil resources. An estimated 90% of its economy and employment are informal. An estimated 36% of Yemenis are unemployed, with a high rise in this figure during 2011, especially among young people, compounded by high levels of underemployment. Further structural problems are the highest population growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region (3.1% a year, with a 5,2 total fertility rate per woman), diminishing water resources, food insecurity that reached close to 50% of the population in 2012 and high levels of malnutrition, widespread poverty, security concerns linked to terrorist threats and tribal tensions coupled with the highest per capita weapon possession in the world. It also has low education levels. While it was the first country in the region to grant women the right to vote, it ranks last on UNDP’s gender inequality index. Widespread qat consumption and production – a mild narcotic 1 EU Financial Regulation (art 27); Regulation (EC) No 1905/200; Regulation (EC) No 1889/2006; Regulation (EC) No 1638/2006; Council Regulation (EC) No 215/2008. 2 SEC(2007)213 ‘Responding to Strategic needs: Reinforcing the use of evaluation’. 3 COM(2011) 637 final ‘Increasing the impact of EU Development Policy: An Agenda for change’. 4 Evaluation of EU Cooperation with Yemen Final Report – Annexes – March 2015 that is chewed in sessions that last several hours – is estimated to compound the low levels of productivity and water depletion challenges. While being the only formal democracy in the Gulf region, the Yemeni political landscape is greatly determined by entrenched elites, with important informal institutions that depend on political alliances, patronage, tribal networks and an important role for the security forces and some important business families. The Yemeni revolution which unfolded during 2011, challenged pre-existing power relationships and demanded a civil state based on rights, getting rid of corruption and the practice of nepotism. However, there is a long road ahead for reform in state institutions and decision making. Credible leadership for reform is still to emerge, although a core group of (young) technocrats and some of the (merchant) business community are at the forefront of reform-drivers among the elite. The donor community is united behind the new President and the government of national unity and strongly supports the transition process. The 2011 unrest has added to the structural developmental challenges Yemen faces though its toll