BLM San Luis Valley – Taos Plateau Level IV Ecoregion Landscape Assessment Draft Final Report Prepared for U.S. Department of the Interior, ANL/EVS-16/5 Bureau of Land Management October 2016 ANL/EVS-16/5 San Luis Valley – Taos Plateau Level IV Ecoregion Landscape Assessment Draft Final Report prepared by Leroy J. Walston, Heidi M. Hartmann, Konstance L. Wescott, Emily A. Zvolanek, Katherine E. Rollins, and Laura R. Fox Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory prepared for U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Land Management, Colorado State Office and Bureau of Land Management, New Mexico State Office October 2016 Page intentionally left blank San Luis Valley – Taos Plateau Landscape Assessment October 2016 CONTENTS NOTATION ................................................................................................................................... x 1 INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Purpose of Rapid Ecoregional Assessments .................................................................. 1 1.2 Purpose of this Landscape Assessment .......................................................................... 1 1.3 Elements of this Landscape Assessment ........................................................................ 3 1.3.1 Management Questions ..................................................................................... 4 1.3.2 Conceptual Models ........................................................................................... 5 1.3.3 Conservation Elements ..................................................................................... 5 1.3.4 Change Agents ................................................................................................ 11 1.3.5 Landscape Intactness Model ........................................................................... 11 1.4 Assumptions, Data Limitations, and Data Gaps ........................................................... 11 1.5 Landscape Assessment Workflow ................................................................................ 14 2 BACKGROUND ON THE SAN LUIS VALLEY – TAOS PLATEAU LEVEL IV ECOREGION ........................................................................................................................ 15 2.1 Climate ......................................................................................................................... 16 2.2 Ecological Resources ................................................................................................... 17 2.3 Hydrology ..................................................................................................................... 18 2.4 Cultural History ............................................................................................................ 18 3 SUMMARY OF METHODOLOGY................................................................................... 19 3.1 Data Management ......................................................................................................... 19 3.2 Models, Methods, and Tools ........................................................................................ 20 3.2.1 Conceptual Models ......................................................................................... 20 3.2.2 Geoprocessing Models .................................................................................... 24 3.2.3 Landscape Intactness Modeling ...................................................................... 24 3.2.4 Climate Change Modeling .............................................................................. 30 3.2.5 Human Development Intensity Modeling ....................................................... 37 3.2.6 Invasive Species, Insects, and Disease Modeling ........................................... 40 3.2.6.1 Current Invasive Species, Insects, and Disease Distribution ......... 43 3.2.6.2 Near-Term Future Invasive Species, Insects, and Disease Potential .......................................................................................... 46 3.2.7 Wildfire Modeling .......................................................................................... 50 4 EVALUATION OF CURRENT AND FUTURE CONDITIONS .................................... 55 5 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION ..................................................................................... 69 5.1 Application of Landscape Assessment Results to Conservation Planning .................. 69 5.2 Limitations and Information Gaps ............................................................................... 73 5.3 Conclusion .................................................................................................................... 74 6 REFERENCES ...................................................................................................................... 75 v San Luis Valley – Taos Plateau Landscape Assessment October 2016 CONTENTS (Cont.) APPENDIX A: EVALUATION OF MANAGEMENT QUESTIONS ............................... A-1 A.1 Management Questions for Soils and Air Quality ..................................................... A-6 A.2 Management Questions for Hydrology .................................................................... A-21 A.3 Management Questions for Ecological Systems Conservation Elements ................ A-51 A.4 Management Questions for Focal Species Conservation Elements ......................... A-57 A.5 Management Questions for Wildfire ...................................................................... A-105 A.6 Management Questions for Invasive Species, Insects, and Disease ...................... A-119 A.7 Management Questions for Human Development and Resource Use ................... A-130 A.8 Management Questions Related to Climate Change .............................................. A-146 A.9 Management Questions for Human and Cultural Elements ................................... A-154 A.10 Management Questions Pertaining to Landscape Intactness ................................. A-155 A.11 Management Questions for Visual Resources ........................................................ A-163 References for Appendix A .............................................................................................. A-183 APPENDIX B: EVALUATION OF CONSERVATION ELEMENTS .............................. B-1 B.1 Ecological Systems Conservation Elements ............................................................ B-19 B.2 Focal Species Conservation Elements ...................................................................... B-63 B.3 Sites of Conservation Concern Conservation Element .......................................... B-199 B.4 Ecosystem Function Conservation Elements ......................................................... B-210 B.5 Cultural and Historic Conservation Elements ........................................................ B-211 References for Appendix B ............................................................................................... B-212 APPENDIX C: DATA INVENTORY .................................................................................... C-1 APPENDIX D: GLOSSARY ................................................................................................... D-1 FIGURES 1-1 Study area for the San Luis Valley-Taos Plateau Level IV Ecoregion Landscape Assessment, located in southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. ............................. 2 1-2 Distribution of Ecological Systems Conservation Elements in the San Luis Valley- Taos Plateau Landscape Assessment study area. Data Source: LANDFIRE Existing Vegetation Types. ............................................................................................................. 10 3-1 General ecosystem-based Conceptual Model for the San Luis Valley – Taos Plateau Level IV Ecoregion. .......................................................................................................... 22 3-2 Conceptual model for the Basin Grassland and Shrubland Ecological System Conservation Element. Additional CE-specific conceptual models are provided in Appendix B. ...................................................................................................................... 23 3-3 Example geoprocessing model to union wetland datasets in Colorado and New Mexico. ............................................................................................................................. 24 vi San Luis Valley – Taos Plateau Landscape Assessment October 2016 FIGURES (Cont.) 3-4 Distance decay functions for the three types of roadways evaluated in the development of the Landscape Intactness Model. Refer to Table 3-2 for model parameterization. ............................................................................................................... 27 3-5 Histogram and breakpoints used to assign intactness categories for the current landscape intactness model and near-term future landscape intactness model. Breakpoints correspond to the following intactness categories: Very Low, Low, Moderately Low, Moderately High, High, and Very High. .............................................. 28 3-6 Current and Near-term Future Landscape Intactness Model for the San Luis Valley- Taos Plateau Level IV Landscape Assessment. Landscape intactness is summarized to 1 km2 reporting units and categorized from very low intactness to very high intactness. .........................................................................................................................