To the University of Wyoming: The members of the Committee approve the dissertation of Douglas Allen Keinath presented on May 5, 2015. Matthew J. Kauffman, Co-Chairperson Daniel F. Doak, Co-Chairperson Gary P. Beauvais Jacob R. Goheen Daniel B. Tinker APPROVED: Robert O. Hall, Jr., Program in Ecology Angela L. Hild, Office of Academic Affairs Keinath, Douglas Allen. Evaluating the Vulnerability of Wyoming’s Wildlife to Habitat Disturbance, Ph.D., Program in Ecology, May 2015. 1 EVALUATING THE VULNERABILITY OF WYOMING’S WILDLIFE TO HABITAT DISTURBANCE By Douglas Allen Keinath A dissertation submitted to the University of Wyoming In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY In ECOLOGY Laramie, Wyoming May 2015 UMI Number: 3712512 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. UMI 3712512 Published by ProQuest LLC (2015). Copyright in the Dissertation held by the Author. Microform Edition © ProQuest LLC. All rights reserved. This work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code ProQuest LLC. 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, MI 48106 - 1346 Copyright page ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS My heartfelt gratitude goes out to my wonderful wife, Richelle, who loved and supported me throughout the trying academic process. Special thanks to the Keinath pets, Daisy, Bodhi and Rio, who provided unconditional furry love on demand, helping kept me sane even when times were stressful. Thanks also to my family and the members of The Laramie Tribe for their moral support. I acknowledge my graduate committee for their thoughtful input throughout my graduate studies. Several illustrious students helped with data collection, particularly Neomi Rao, Rachel Eberius, Benjamin Oh, Zoe Aarons, Annie Munn, Leah Yandow and Hunter McFarland, and Anthony Jackson Marr. Many thanks go to all the generous authors who provided me with data from their field surveys (Appendix S2); the results of Chapter 3 would not have been possible without their efforts and great commitment to the advancement of scientific knowledge. Thanks to Ackbar Joolia (IUCN) for providing data on species geographic ranges. I would further like to acknowledge contributors to BirdLife International’s IUCN Red List assessments, from which most avian life history data were drawn. This dissertation was improved by the support and thoughtful reviews of members of a University of Wyoming science writing class. Members of the Doak Lab and Kauffman Labs provided invaluable advice and moral support, particularly my academic sister, Reilly Dibner. This work was supported by the Wyoming Game and Fish Department, US Geological Survey (Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative), Natural Resources Conservation Service Sage Grouse Initiative, and Mayer and Morris Kaplan Family Foundation. I thank Wyoming wildlife experts for input and review of maps and models, with special thanks to Gary Beauvais, Pat Ortegon, Amanda Larson, Alex Buerkle, Jeffrey Evans, Dean Stilwell, and staff of the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the Wyoming Natural Diversity Database (WYNDD), and the Wyoming Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit. Unless specified, photos used herein are copyrighted by the photographers and are used here with permission. Photographers are as follows: house mouse, Klaus Rudloff (www.biolib.cz, [email protected], Kazakstan); Costa's Hummingbird, Jon Sullivan (public domain); wood frog, J. D. Wilson (www.discoverlife.org); southern brown bandicoot, John Chapman (www.chappo1.com); Bearded Tree-quail, Alberto Lobato (ibc.lynxeds.com); Abbott’s duiker, Andrew Bowkett (www.arkive.org); Barker's Anole, Jonathan Losos (www.anoleannals.org). All data and models referenced herein are available from the Wyoming Natural Diversity Database (http://www.uwyo.edu/wyndd/index.html); requests should reference the Assessment of Wildlife Vulnerability to Energy Development project. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................... 1 Literature Cited ........................................................................................................................... 3 Figures ......................................................................................................................................... 5 CHAPTER ONE – Mapping the distribution of Wyoming’s Species of Greatest Conservation Need ................................................................................................................................................ 6 Abstract: . .................................................................................................................................... 6 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 6 Methods ....................................................................................................................................... 7 Occurrence Data. ................................................................................................................................... 7 Environmental Data. ........................................................................................................................... 10 Model Generation. .............................................................................................................................. 11 Model Validation. ............................................................................................................................... 13 Results ....................................................................................................................................... 16 Discussion ................................................................................................................................. 17 Literature Cited ......................................................................................................................... 19 Figures and Tables .................................................................................................................... 25 CHAPTER TWO – Estimating exposure of wildlife to energy development in the face of rapidly expanding production.................................................................................................................... 31 Abstract. .................................................................................................................................... 31 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 32 Methods ..................................................................................................................................... 34 Focal Landscape. ................................................................................................................................. 34 Energy Footprint. ................................................................................................................................ 35 Species Distributions. ......................................................................................................................... 37 Estimating Exposure to Development. ................................................................................................ 39 Results ....................................................................................................................................... 40 Discussion ................................................................................................................................. 41 Literature Cited ......................................................................................................................... 45 Figures and Tables .................................................................................................................... 52 iv CHAPTER THREE – A global analysis of species sensitivity to habitat disturbance using local data ................................................................................................................................................ 60 Abstract. .................................................................................................................................... 60 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 61 Methods ..................................................................................................................................... 64 Scope and Data. .................................................................................................................................. 64 Analysis............................................................................................................................................... 65 Results ....................................................................................................................................... 68 Discussion ................................................................................................................................