ISSN: 2560-1601 Vol. 36, No. 1 (GR) January 2021 Greece political briefing: Greek Politics for 2021 George N. Tzogopoulos 1052 Budapest Petőfi Sándor utca 11. +36 1 5858 690 Kiadó: Kína-KKE Intézet Nonprofit Kft. [email protected] Szerkesztésért felelős személy: CHen Xin Kiadásért felelős személy: Huang Ping china-cee.eu 2017/01 Greek Politics for 2021 Scenarios for a snap election have been traditionally vivid in Greece. The beginning of 2021 has been accompanied with relevant speculation indeed. If Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis calls an early election throughout the year, he will be able to benefit by the current problematic status of SYRIZA and count on his party’s existing unity that will be arguably tested according to the future result of the Greek-Turkish negotiations. At the same time, SYRIZA and the Movement of Change are struggling to define their political orientation. The political risk for Mitsotakis is that the electoral behavior of centrist voters can hardly be predetermined under current circumstances. The performance of the governing New Democracy party remains mediocre and cannot guarantee an electoral triumph in a period during which numerous Greek citizens are suffering by the pandemic. The new year started with a governmental reshuffle in Greece. It was the second time Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis made mild changes in the team after his victory in the national election of July 2019. The first reshuffle had been announced in August 2020. At that time, Theodoros Skylakakis was upgraded to Alternate Minister of Finance, and Nikos Papathanasis to Alternate Minister of Development and Investment. Additionally, Panagiotis Tsakloglou was appointed to the position of Deputy Minister of Labor and Social Affairs, Zoe Rapti to the position of Deputy Minister of Health and Nikolaos Tagaras to the position of Deputy Minister of Environment and Energy. The reshuffle of January 2021 went further but was not structural either. Modifications include that of Kostis Hatzidakis, who left the Ministry of Energy and Environment and undertook the Labor Ministry portfolio, and that Makis Voridis became Minister of the Interior leaving the post of the Minister of Agricultural Development. Kostas Skrekas took the previous position of Hatzidakis and Spilios Livanios that of Voridis, while Stelios Petsas became Deputy Minister of the Interior leaving the role of the governmental spokesperson to Christos Tarantilis. The basic interpretation of the January 2021 reshuffle is that Mitsotakis has been very satisfied with the performance of his key ministers. Finance Minister Christos Staikouras, Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias, Defence Minister Nikos Panagiotopoulos, Education Minister Niki Kerameos and Tourism Minister Harry Theocharis have all kept their position. The only ‘victims’ were former Interior Minister Takis Theodorikakos and Labor Minister Giannis 1 Vroutsis. While Theodorikakos is not an elected MP, Vroutsis became New Democracy’s parliamentary group leader. The latter’s performance was rather poor during the first wave of COVID-19 when he connecting allowances for self-employees with unreliable education programs. In December 2020, Vroutsis came under criticism for delaying the settlement of pending pensions. Several political commentators interpret the January 2021 reshuffle as an indication of Mr Mitsotakis’s appetite to call an early election during the year. Bizarre as it is, snap election scenarios tend to frequently dominate the Greek media discourse. Last year, for example, speculation about a potential early election was on the rise during the summer period. However, the deterioration of the COVID-19 situation and the outbreak of Greek-Turkish tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean buried the alleged plan. What is currently being discussed in the Greek media discourse is that New Democracy could still have an opportunity to politically surprise the main opposition SYRIZA party that remains weak in the aftermath of its electoral defeat in the national election of July 2019. In that regard, the reshuffle itself exhibits the interest of Mitsotakis in offering ministerial positions to members of the party – instead of centrist politicians, technocrats or other figures. The replacement of Theodorikakos by Voridis is placed in this context. The party of New Democracy has shown resilience and cohesion in spite of Greek- Turkish tensions. In the last months of 2020, during which Turkish vessel ‘Oruc Reis’ was carrying out research in the Eastern Mediterranean, New Democracy MPs, who can be identified as belonging to the right-wing political spectrum, refrained from criticizing the government. This unity will arguably prevail throughout 2021. The rather mild posture of Mistotakis on foreign policy issues contrasts that of Foreign Minister Nikos Densias, who appears more vocal vis-à-vis Turkish provocations. By calling an early election in June or September, the Prime Minister will be able to prevent an internal crisis within New Democracy that will allegedly be erupted as long as Greece and Turkey are engaged in dialogue under the umbrella of the so-called exploratory talks. For the majority of citizens, Greek-Turkish relations are not their top priority under current circumstances. The pain of the pandemic and its economic consequences largely attract their attention. In the scenario of an early election, Mitsotakis will need to look at his party’s internal dynamics and, simultaneously, offer messages of hope to struggling people. These message will perhaps draw on a combination of the potential return to normalcy – in line with the vaccination process – and the possible economic recovery during the summer season. The existing risk is that several voters – especially centrist ones – will not necessarily understand 2 the need of a snap election for a government that is stable and has a clear four-year mandate. In other words, the political motivation of Mitsotakis to damage SYRIZA will questionably be shared by middle ground citizens, who are striving to cope with the pandemic impact in their daily life. Further to this, it is difficult to predetermine their electoral behavior after months of lockdown, psychological fatigue and economic losses. Mitsotakis will perhaps count on their ‘fear’ of a SYRIZA administration but such a ‘fear’ will not automatically favor New Democracy the political performance of which has been mediocre. At the writing, SYRIZA is not ready to compete with New Democracy in a national election to take place in the next months. Although the problematic management of the pandemic by the government has been exposed by Alexis Tsipras in several parliamentary debates, he and other party member have not inspired the society that they would have performed better if in government. More importantly, internal disagreements within SYRIZA are generating questions about its future orientation. A political trend called ‘Movement of Members’ and led by Nikos Pappas, Costas Zachariadis, Rena Dourou, George Balafas and Nikos Santorinios raises its voice against a potential introversion of the party. Another one called ‘Umbrella’ contains the ‘Group of 53’ under Euclid Tsakalotos and Theodoros Dritsas and attempts to join forces with old guard SYRIZA politicians such as Nikos Vroutsis, Panos Skourletis, Nikos Filis and Dimitris Papadimoulis. There are also other SYRIZA politicians such as Dimitris Tzanakopoulos, Efi Achtsiouglou and Nasos Iliopoulos, who enjoy a proximity to Tsipras, and others such as George Ragkoussis, Marilisa Xenogiannakopoulou, Olga Gerovassili and George Katrougalos who do not belong to any internal political subgroup. An important question in Greek politics is whether the center-left ground could be revitalized. The Movement of Change presided by Fofi Genimata gathered 8.1 percent of the vote in the national election of July 2019 but has not successfully acted as an alternative political pole balancing between New Democracy and SYRIZA. The Movement of Change is expected to hold its internal leadership election throughout the year. Nikos Androulakis and Andreas Loverdos will be candidate along with the current leader. At the beginning of January, Gennimata removed Loverdos from his position as parliamentary group representative triggering speculation about her motivations. Loverdos is a respectable politician but is considered an old guard of the party, whereas Androulakis, who lost to Gennimata in 2017 and is currently a Member of the European Parliament, counts on his young age and international record. Obviously, the internal electoral process with the Movement of Change will depend on the course of domestic politics. A snap national election will derail the plan or prevent the party 3 from possibly renewing its leadership on time. Scenarios of cooperation between the Movement of Change and SYRIZA have been theoretically discussed but not yet materialized. Conclusion The new year will be challenging for the governing New Democracy party. The management of the pandemic and Greek-Turkish negotiations under the ‘exploratory talks’ format will determine its popularity. Prime Minister Mitsotakis and New Democracy are currently politically dominating due to the weakness of the main opposition SYRIZA party. The scenario of a snap election is thus gaining ground. SYRIZA needs more political time to redefine its orientation amid internal cleavages and the Movement of Change has planned to organize its internal leadership battle during the year. But Mitsotakis and New Democracy will perhaps risk to witness centrist citizens question the necessity of an early election in a period during which unprecedented public health and economic problems have not been solved. 4 .