THE FRAMING OF A CANDIDATE: NEWSPAPERS, PRESIDENTIAL HOPEFULS, AND THE IMAGINARY PRIMARY A Thesis submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences of Georgetown University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in Communication, Culture and Technology By Aaron Saunders, B.A. Washington, DC December 20, 2006 THE FRAMING OF A CANDIDATE: NEWSPAPERS, PRESIDENTIAL HOPEFULS, AND THE IMAGINARY PRIMARY Aaron Saunders Thesis Advisor: Diana Owen, PhD ABSTRACT In this examination of an election’s pre-nomination period, it becomes evident that the media have created the “imaginary primary” as a way of making the race seem dramatic, interesting, and “in the news.” The imaginary primary is defined as the media-created contest that pits potential candidates against one other, using viability and electability as the measuring sticks to determine who is winning and losing in the months and years leading up to the primary season. This early speculation about potential candidates is the result of two recent trends: the emergence of soft news coverage and the front-loading of nomination primaries. The media have developed and employed three dominant news frames as a way to cover these presidential hopefuls during the imaginary primary. These frames focus on the celebrity aspect of possible candidates, campaign strategies, and public opinion poll results as a means of discussing the upcoming presidential election even when there is no hard news. The pervasiveness of this early election coverage begs some important questions. When there are no declared candidates what news is the media actually ii reporting? How does the amount and prominence of coverage vary among possible candidates? Perhaps most importantly, what are the possible consequences for this early press attention, both on the potential candidates and the American public? During this imaginary primary, national newspapers and smaller local newspapers are paying close attention to possible candidates for the presidency. The frontrunner for the nomination dominates press attention, in terms of the amount and prominence of this coverage. Characteristics of candidate-specific reports are also affected if a candidate is a current elected official. However, all potential candidates are subjects of the three news frames, with the largest proportion of coverage being dedicated to campaign strategy. The consequences of this constant coverage during the imaginary primary can be significant both for electorate and the potential candidates themselves. The media attention can create a bandwagon effect, bolstering support for the frontrunner and making a “comeback” more difficult for late entrants and lesser-known candidates. The media sets the agenda by telling voters who to think about as viable 2008 candidates, while the media’s emphasis on character traits during this time can cause voters to make superficial decisions about candidates before knowing where they stand on issues. Finally, the media emphasize electability, which cues voters to consider candidates’ political actions as a means to achieve popularity en route to a iii higher office. This could prime audiences to focus on potential candidates’ strategy and not the real reasons that the candidates have staked out these policy positions. iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This thesis has been a work nearly two years in the making. It is a product I am very proud of; however it is the result of many people’s insight and input. None of those people were more important than my thesis adviser, Dr. Diana Owen. It was in her Media & Politics course that I first conceptualized the project and began to pursue it as an academic interest. Dr. Owen helped nurture the idea from its infancy and then continued to breathe life into it as it became a full-fledged thesis project. I especially want to thank her for her tremendous patience and encouragement during the final stages of the writing phase. I also would like to thank my second reader, Jeanine Turner, who was willing to join the team late in the game. Our paths didn’t cross much during this process, but I hope they do more in the future. Thanks to Fred Volk whose help with statistics proved invaluable early on, and to Anne Veigle for her editing expertise which came in handy late in the process. During my first year of graduate school I was fortunate enough to meet Jennifer Howard, who served as my TA and constantly pushed me to pursue and then finish this project. Jen spent countless hours working with me during the last two years and I have her to thank, in part, for both the creation and completion of this thesis project. I would also be remiss if I didn’t acknowledge my two mentors, Dr. Dan Nathan and Christine DeCourtney, who worked with me tirelessly to improve my skills as a writer, researcher, and editor. I’d like to thank my former and current colleagues in the office of Senator Ted Stevens – Dave Russell, Courtney Boone, Lisa Sutherland, George Lowe, Lindsay Hayes, and Mark Davis – for their willingness work around my class schedule. In particular, my former supervisor and good friend Melanie Alvord was a source of encouragement and genuine care. Thanks for editing all those papers, Mel! Finally, I owe a huge debt of gratitude and many thanks to Stephanie Fagan, who stood beside me when I didn’t think I’d make it. My belief in myself is a direct product of her belief in me. v TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter 1. The Road to 2008............................................................................1 Outline of Study..............................................................................5 Chapter 2. The Modern Media..........................................................................8 The Rise of New Media...................................................................8 Hard vs. Soft News Coverage........................................................13 The Rise of Tabloidization and Infotainment.................................15 Public Opinion Polls .....................................................................21 Reporter-centric Coverage.............................................................24 Chapter Summary .........................................................................26 Chapter 3. Framing the News .........................................................................28 The Media as Joan Rivers..............................................................30 The Media as Karl Rove................................................................37 The Media as Willie Shoemaker....................................................43 Chapter Summary .........................................................................48 Chapter 4. The Modern Nominating Process ..................................................50 The Front-Loading Problem ..........................................................50 Visiting Iowa, New Hampshire and Beyond ..................................52 The Invisible Primary....................................................................55 The Imaginary Primary .................................................................57 Chapter Summary .........................................................................58 Chapter 5. The 2008 Presidential Election......................................................61 The Candidates .............................................................................63 The Rock Stars..............................................................................64 The Familiar Faces........................................................................69 The Dark Horses ...........................................................................71 Chapter Summary .........................................................................79 Chapter 6. Research Plan and Methodology ...................................................82 Choosing the Democrats ...............................................................82 Choosing Newspapers...................................................................85 vi Research Questions and Hypotheses..............................................87 Data Collection Parameters ...........................................................90 Key Variables ...............................................................................93 Dates.......................................................................................93 Newspaper ..............................................................................93 Candidate................................................................................94 Headline Mention....................................................................94 Homestate ...............................................................................95 Article Type ............................................................................95 Joan Rivers/Karl Rove/Willie Shoemaker News Frames..........97 Only Mentions.........................................................................98 Focus 2008..............................................................................99 Intercoder Reliability ..................................................................100 Statistical Methodology...............................................................102 Crosstabulation......................................................................103 ANOVA................................................................................103 Limitations..................................................................................104