1 Ben-Gurion University of the Negev The Jacob Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research The Albert Katz International School for Desert Studies Can there be a Bi-National City under a Cold Peace? The Case Study of Eilat, Israel and Aqaba, Jordan. Thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of "Master of Science" By: Jose Ramón Xilotl Soberón Date: September, 2013 2 Ben-Gurion University of the Negev The Jacob Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research The Albert Katz International School for Desert Studies Can there be a Bi-National City under a Cold Peace? The Case Study of Eilat, Israel and Aqaba, Jordan. Thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of "Master of Science" By: Jose Ramón Xilotl Soberón Under the Supervision of: Dr. Yodan Rofé Department of: Environmental Studies Author's Signature ………………………………………………….. Date: Sept. 8th, 2013 Approved by the Supervisor…………….……… Date …October 14, 2013 Approved by the Director of the School ……………………… Date ………….… 3 Abstract Can there be a Bi-National City under a Cold Peace? The Case Study of Eilat, Israel and Aqaba, Jordan. Author: Jose Ramón Xilotl Soberón. The thesis is in partial fulfillment for the degree of Master of Science, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Jacob Blaustein Institute for Desert Research, Albert Katz International School for Desert Studies, 2013. Officially at peace since 1994, Israel and Jordan have since established multiple cooperation schemes with the aim of transitioning from a described Cold Peace to a self-sustaining Warm Peace. One that is particularly interesting from the point of view of Border and Urban Studies is the case of Eilat, Israel and Aqaba, Jordan. These tourist cities, located in the Arava Valley, are both physically isolated and strategically placed. Since 2001 they have been considered as a potential Bi-National City, and so far remain as the only one studied in a Cold Peace setting. Yet doubt persists whether a Bi-National City may actually exist under such conditions. This thesis firmly establishes the place of Eilat-Aqaba as a Bi-National City by using a unique analysis of the region that updates and elaborates findings dating from 2001. The main contributions of the thesis include: 1) changes to the existing Border Integration Model that take into account the regional political complexity of the current Cold Peace, 2) modeling the Bi-National City Process of Eilat-Aqaba, and 3) identifying the limitations that the Cold Peace places on the current political situation in Eilat and Aqaba. Secondary contributions include: 1) identification of multi-level actors affecting 4 Eilat-Aqaba and 2) identifying the important role played by international tourists within the Bi-National City Process of Eilat-Aqaba. 5 Acknowledgements I would like to thank Ben Gurion University of the Negev for their material support in carrying out this work. I similarly want to thank the Jacob Blaustein Institute for Desert Research and its staff for their great practical support during my studies. I want to also thank my supervisor Dr. Yodan Rofé for giving me the opportunity and guidance to work on such an interesting topic. I extend my gratitude towards all those who granted me interviews and shared with me the living story of the Israel-Jordan border. I have kept private the names of those that preferred anonymity but do want to especially thank Mr. Samo Samorai for lending me copies of so many helpful documents. I want also to thank the members of the individual government ministries mentioned in the text that provided me with the necessary statistical information to carry out this work. 6 Table of Contents Abstract……………………………………………………………………………… 3 Acknowledgements………………………………………………………………….. 5 Table of Contents……………………………………………………………………. 6 List of Tables …………….…………………………………………………………… 8 List of Figures………………………………………………..................................... 11 1. Introduction……………………………………………………………………. 13 2. Literature Review……………………………………………………………… 17 Border Studies Models for Bi-National Cities……........................................... 25 Bi-national Cities as extreme cases of Divided Cities………………………… 33 3. Methodology…………………………………………………………………… 38 4. Results (Research Objective 1)……………………………………………….. 57 Indicators A…………………………………………………………………… 57 Indicators B…………………………………………………………………… 79 Indicators C…………………………………………………………………… 85 Indicators D…………………………………………………………………... 99 5. Discussion (Research Objective 2)……………….......................................... 111 7 Differences between the Results of the Gradus-Ehlers matrix and the Theoretical Model……………………………………………………………………............... 112 Detailed Examples of the Economic Impact of the Differences between the Case Study and the Theoretical Model… ……………………………………………… 115 A Detailed Example of the Economic Impact of the Differences between the Case Study and Historical Theories of Border Studies………………………….. 118 The Impact of the Expanded Role of Local Government in the Case Study…….. 120 Modeling the Eilat-Aqaba Bi-National City………………………………………. 122 6. Conclusion…………………………………………………………………… 134 References………………………………………………………………….……… 139 8 List of Tables 1.1 - Timeline of Bi-National Events and Research on Eilat-Aqaba 1994-2009…........15 2.1 - Historical Border Studies Theories…………………………………………….....19 2.2 - Indicators showing Bi-National City Integration Processes for Eilat, Israel-Aqaba, Jordan……………………………………………………………………………….......37 3.1 – Gradus-Ehlers Matrix of Bi-National Integration Indicators for Eilat-Aqaba……40 4.1 – Bank of Israel Exchange Rate 21/01/13…………………………………………58 4.2 – Price Index 21/01/13……………………………………………………………59 4.3 – Price Index Comparison 21/01/13………………………………………………59 4.4 – Comparison of Israel-Jordan Bi-lateral Trade Statistics 2008-2011……………62 4.5 – DSJ Balance of Trade Israel-Jordan 1996-2011 (in USD Millions)……………65 4.6 – CBS Balance of Trade Israel-Jordan 1996-2011 (in USD Millions)……………67 4.7 – Total Truck Movements at Israel-Jordan Border Crossings 2006-2011…………72 4.8 – Projected Trade at Rabin/Arabah Border Crossing 2006-2011 according to DS Jordan and CBS Israel (in USD)………………………………………………………74 4.9 – GDP Growth and Trade Growth between Israel and Jordan at the Rabin/Arabah Border Crossing 2006-2011……………………………………………………………75 9 4.10 – Correlation between GDP Growth and Trade Growth between Israel and Jordan (2006-2011)…………………………………………………………………………… 76 4.11- Bilateral Trade as % of GDP by Data Set (2006-2011)………………………77 4.12 – Points Awarded for Indicators Column 'A'……………………………………78 4.13 - Subcommittees of AECC by Number of Meetings 2011………………………80 4.14- Articles Co-authored by Israeli and Jordanian Researchers (1994-2013)………83 4.15 – Points Awarded for Indicators Column 'B'……………………………………84 4.16 – Difference in Departures (Wadi Arabah, Jordan) and Arrivals (Rabin, Israel) by Data Set 2005-2011 (in Thousands)……………………………………………………86 4.17 –Relative Importance of the Eilat-Aqaba Crossing with relation to Total Crossings in Eilat & Aqaba 2005-2009……………………………………………………………89 4.18 – Land Crossing Arrivals at Rabin & Wadi Arabah as % of Total Land Crossings Arrivals between Israel & Jordan 1996-2011…………………………………………90 4.19 – Average Cost of Double Room in Eilat and Aqaba 4/26/13-4/27/13 by Hotel Star Rating (in NIS)…………………………………………………………………………91 4.20 – Points Awarded for Indicators Column 'C'……………………………………97 4.21 – Total International Arrivals (in Thousands) by Crossing in the Gulf of Aqaba Region 2009……………………………………………………………………………98 10 4.22 – Population and Utilities in Eilat & Aqaba……………………………………103 4.23 – Housing and Utilities in Eilat & Aqaba………………………………………104 4.24 – Taxi Cost Rabin/Arabah to Central Bus Station 21/01/13……………………107 4.25 – Points Awarded for Indicators Column ‘D’…………………………………110 5.1 – Results of the Indicators showing Bi-National City Integration Processes for Eilat, Israel-Aqaba, Jordan…………………………………………………………………112 11 List of Figures 2.1 – Israel-Jordan National Border……………………………………………………20 2.2 – Languages of the Middle East (Close Up)…………………………………….....22 2.3 – Religions of the Middle East (Close Up)…………………………………………22 2.4 – Topographic Map of the Israel-Jordan Border…………………………………23 2.5 - Continuum of Boundary Dynamics Model……………………………………….29 2.6 – Theory of Borderland Studies Model…………………………………………….30 2.7 – Actors/Context Matrix……………………………………………………………32 2.8 – Model of the Factors of Cross-Boundary Permeability………………………….33 4.1 – Imports and Exports Israel-Jordan (1996-2011) according to Israel and Jordan…63 4.2 – Total Trade Israel-Jordan (1996-2011) according to Israel and Jordan…………64 4.3 – Does Yearly Growth in Total Trade correlate with the Balance of Trade between Israel and Jordan 1998-2011?..........................................................................................68 4.4 – Projected Relative Importance of the Balance of Trade between Israel-Jordan (2005-2016)……………………………………………………………………………69 4.5 – Is there a Correlation between GDP Growth and Trade Growth between Israel and Jordan (2006-2011)?........................................................................................................70 12 4.6 – Land Crossing Arrivals from Jordan to Israel 1996-2011………………………87 4.7 – Land Crossings from Israel to Jordan 2005-2011………………………………88 4.8 - Average Cost of Hotel Night by Hotel Rating in the Gulf of Aqaba Region…….92 4.9 – Land Use Map 2002……………………………………………………………100 4.10 – Land Use Map 2012…………………………………………………………101 5.1 – Borderlands in the Eilat-Aqaba Region…………………………………………124 5.2 – The Theory