Insert Front Cover (Image) On This Page Employment Land Review Monmouthshire County Council CONTENTS 1.0 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................... 1 2.0 POLICY CONTEXT ................................................................................................... 4 3.0 SOCIO-ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT ....................................................................... 21 4.0 PROPERTY MARKET ............................................................................................. 31 5.0 BUSINESS SURVEY AND CONSULTATIONS ....................................................... 43 6.0 EMPLOYMENT SITES ............................................................................................ 52 7.0 EMPLOYMENT LAND FORECASTS ...................................................................... 74 8.0 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ........................................................ 88 Appendix 1 – Vacancy Schedule Appendix 2 – Business Survey Appendix 3 – Site Scoring System Appendix 4 – Scoring Results M115(e) / Final Report / February 2020 / BE Group / 01925 822112 Employment Land Review Monmouthshire County Council 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 This Employment Land Review (ELR) has been prepared for Monmouthshire County Council by BE Group. The ELR will form part of the evidence base for the preparation of Monmouthshire’s Replacement Local Development Plan (RLDP). 1.2 The ELR provides an assessment of the supply and demand for employment land in the County, looking at the available employment allocations and existing employment areas to understand the supply side and reviewing the property market, consulting with local stakeholders and forecasting employment growth to understand the demand side. 1.3 The forecast period for the ELR is 2018-2033. 1.4 This study has been prepared in parallel with the Regional Employment Study (the Larger than Local study) for Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly, Monmouthshire, Newport and Torfaen local authority areas. This study is looking at employment land across the five local authority areas to 2040. The Larger than Local study has been prepared by BE Group, Hatch Regeneris and Per Consulting and uses analysis of this ELR (along with ELRs being prepared for Blaenau Gwent and Torfaen). The intent of the Larger than Local study is to ensure that the neighbouring authorities have a clear and consistent approach to the planning for employment land, particularly regarding strategic sites. 1.5 This ELR will be informed by and be consistent with the regional study. Methodology 1.6 Research methods used include site visits, face-to-face and telephone interviews with property market stakeholders such as developers, investors and their agents, as well as other key stakeholders, such as public sector agencies and core employers. Desktop analysis of national, sub-regional and local reports and strategies has been undertaken. 1.7 As noted, this ELR is completed alongside the Larger than Local study, which includes analysis of Monmouthshire economic characteristics and employment growth forecasts. These findings have been used within this ELR. 1.8 An analysis of the local property market has been undertaken, including a critique of the transactions of commercial premises in Monmouthshire, a review of currently M115(e) / Final Report / February 2020 / BE Group / 01925 822112 1 Employment Land Review Monmouthshire County Council marketed properties and an assessment of the types of uses within employment areas. This data was complemented with information gathered from conversations with locally active commercial agents. 1.9 The ELR has reviewed the current/existing employment site allocations and existing employment areas through site inspections, reference to Council’s annual employment land monitoring, conversations with landholders/agents as appropriate and review of planning applications/permissions. The existing employment site allocations and existing areas have been catalogued and critiqued. 1.10 The employment land demand over the planning period has been forecast using reference to past employment land take-up and employment forecasts by sector. This is consistent with Welsh Government Practice Guidance. A series of recommendations has been provided to guide employment land planning to 2033. Welsh Employment Land Review Guidance 1.11 This study reflects Welsh Government guidance on how Local Authorities should approach employment land reviews, namely ‘Practice Guidance – Building an Economic Development Evidence Base to Support a Local Development Plan’ (August 2015). The employment land review process takes the form of a four-stage methodology under the following headings: • Stage 1: Property Market Assessment – An analysis of demand in terms of specific market sectors, property requirements and geographical areas, focusing on the current situation and prospects for the LDP over its 15-year life cycle. Where there is demand for development and where there is not. • Stage 2: Audit of Employment Sites – The quantitative inventory and qualitative appraisal of local land supplies, including existing committed, allocated and potential employment sites and existing stock. This will feed directly into the review’s conclusions on whether any further land should be identified for employment and whether any existing or committed employment sites should be transferred to other uses. • Stage 3: Future Land Requirements – Establishing the LDP’s employment land requirement, using recognised forecast methods, primarily: o “Method 1 – Past Building Completions: Method 1 uses the average annual completions rate for B1, B2, and B8 employment land for a previous period in order to project future requirements over the life of the M115(e) / Final Report / February 2020 / BE Group / 01925 822112 2 Employment Land Review Monmouthshire County Council LDP. o Method 2 – Labour Demand Forecasting: Method 2 involves acquiring employment growth forecast data for relevant Standard Industrial Classification (SIC, 2007) activity sectors, assigning sectors to B use classes and then converting jobs to floorspace.” • Stage 4: Policy Options, Recommendations and Monitoring – Identifying policy options and recommendations, based on review findings. 1.12 Table 1 shows how the Employment Land Review aligns with this Guidance. The link between the report and the Planning Practice methodology is not always clear cut, with different sections overlapping, indeed certain steps overlap. Table 1 – Employment Land Reviews – Practice Guidance Stage 1: Property Market Assessment Step 1: Identify where demand and Covered in Sections: opportunities exist for development. 3.0 Socio-Economic Profile Step 2: Identify where existing employment 4.0 Property Market Assessment land is no longer in demand. 5.0 Stakeholder Consultations Step 3: Establish property market profiles Demand assessment and market profiling, for offices, industry and warehousing. including consultations with local businesses regarding their land/property needs. Stage 2: Audit of Employment Sites Step 1: Preparation of a quantitative site 6.0 Employment Land Assessment inventory Quantitative and qualitative site Step 2: Preparation of qualitative site assessments appraisals Step 3: Recommendations Stage 3: Calculating Future Land Requirements Method 1 – Past Building 7.0 Future Land Requirements Review Method 2 – Labour Demand Forecasting Review of completed Economic Development Evidence Base, allowing for updated LDP position. Stage 4: Policy Options, Recommendations and Monitoring Step 1: Policy Options 8.0 Conclusions and Recommendations Step 2: Policy Recommendations Final reporting, including conclusions and Step 3: Monitoring and Recording policy/practice recommendations. Source: BE Group reporting response to Planning Guidance – Building an Economic Development Evidence Base Support a Local Development Plan M115(e) / Final Report / February 2020 / BE Group / 01925 822112 3 Employment Land Review Monmouthshire County Council 2.0 POLICY CONTEXT Introduction 2.1 This section focuses on Welsh Government, sub regional and local reports and strategies that have a relevance to the allocation of employment land and premises. The strategies and reports reviewed below provides the context within which employment land planning and growth would be developed. Welsh Government Planning Policy Wales, 10th Edition – Welsh Government (2018) 2.2 Planning Policy Wales (PPW) 10th Edition, sets out the land-use planning policies of the Welsh Government. It is supplemented by a series of Technical Advice Notes (TANs). Together with several circulars and policy clarification letters, PPW and the TANs comprise the national planning policy for Wales. 2.3 Chapter 5 ‘Productive and Enterprising Places’ of PPW 10 sets out national policies for economic development. For planning purposes, the Welsh Government defines economic development as “the development of land and buildings for activities that generate sustainable long term prosperity, jobs and incomes… Economic land uses include the traditional employment land uses (offices, research and development, industry and warehousing), as well as uses such as retail, tourism, and public services.” 2.4 The document states the importance of the planning system supporting economic growth and ensuring that there is sufficient land to meet the needs of the employment market at both a strategic and local level. “Development plans should identify employment land requirements, allocate an