University of Wollongong Research Online University of Wollongong Thesis Collection University of Wollongong Thesis Collections 2009 A window of opportunity? Australian foreign policy change towards East Timor 1998-99 and Solomon Islands 2003 Joakim Eidenfalk University of Wollongong Recommended Citation Eidenfalk, Joakim, A window of opportunity? Australian foreign policy change towards East Timor 1998-99 and Solomon Islands 2003, Doctor of Philosophy thesis, School of History and Politics, Faculty of Arts, University of Wollongong, 2009. http://ro.uow.edu.au/theses/3444 Research Online is the open access institutional repository for the University of Wollongong. For further information contact Manager Repository Services: [email protected]. A Window of Opportunity? Australian foreign policy change towards East Timor 1998-99 and Solomon Islands 2003 A thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the award of the degree Doctor of Philosophy from University of Wollongong by Joakim Eidenfalk MA (Politics), MA (International Relations) School of History and Politics Faculty of Arts 2009 Thesis Certification I, Joakim Thomas Eidenfalk, declare that this thesis, submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the award of Doctor of Philosophy, in the Faculty of Arts, School of History and Politics, University of Wollongong, is wholly my own work unless otherwise referenced or acknowledged. The document has not been submitted for qualifications at any other academic institution. Joakim Eidenfalk 30 March 2009. ii Abstract This thesis examines Australian foreign policy change towards East Timor in 1998-99 and towards Solomon Islands in 2003. The thesis demonstrates the complexity of foreign policy decision-making through an analysis of these two cases. A new theoretical model of foreign policy change is presented and applied. It argues for the importance of investigating both domestic and international factors that influence foreign policy decision-making, as well as for the interaction between these producing a combined influence or pressure on decision makers. Of equal importance is the key decision-makers themselves in as much as they must perceive that a “window of opportunity” exists for foreign policy change to actually occur. This thesis argues that domestic factors played a key role in the Australian foreign policy change towards Indonesia regarding East Timor in 1999. Together with events in Indonesia, these caused the Howard government to change its policy in September 1999, after having been most reluctant to do so. The Australian government’s decision-making process was mainly reactive rather than proactive in this case. International factors played a larger role in the case of Australian foreign policy change towards Solomon Islands in 2003. Their interaction created a window of opportunity that the Howard-government perceived and acted upon. The Australian government was more proactive in this case, although it reacted late to a situation that had unfolded for the past three years. The model illustrates how in both cases pressure was brought to bear on key decision makers and how domestic and international sources of change affected foreign policy. iii Acknowledgements Writing a PhD is in many ways a solitary process but what characterises it just as much is the support needed from friends, colleagues, housemates, and family. I have been extraordinarily lucky to have had that throughout my candidature. There are simply too many to thank by name here but a few deserve a special mention. I have walked countless miles through the corridors of the Faculty of Arts these past few years, taking a break from writing, reading, or mental blocs, and there have always been academic and general staff there willing to spare a minute or two for a chat. I have developed many friendships during my strolls and I cherish them deeply. Thank you to you all for your support and all those hours of just talking and socialising! I’ll miss you all! Thank you to the postgraduates that I have shared this experience with. I will especially look back at the camaraderie, always knowing that there was someone to talk to when needed, to share tough as well as joyous times. It wouldn’t have been the same without you, that’s for sure! A special mention to my fellow members of the “Monday morning society” – Andrew Humphreys and Ross Tapsell. We have spent a lot of time together the last few years and I dare say that for most of that time we spoke about other things than our theses. It certainly helped me keep my sanity and often provided a good laugh that made it all easier to bear. Thanks for the stories…! Petar Spaseski, my Sunday lunch companion, has taken my mind of my thesis more often than I can count due to his extremely positive personality and undying friendship. Always there when I need you – be it to chat, help me move, or simply going to buy meatballs…Thanks mate! And to my housemates throughout the years - Rob, Stuart, Hiroki, Adriano, Sabine, and Julie. It’s not easy to put up with a grumpy PhD-student but you all did it in wonderful fashion. Even though you are now spread out across the world, you still manage to provide me with support and friendship. I am proud to call you my friends! A thank you also to Dr. Jakob Gustavsson and Dr. Fredrik Doeser for valuable comments and criticisms on the theoretical aspects of my work. My supervisors have provided me with great support this past 5 years. I have been very lucky to have Dr. Charles Hawksley and Dr. Anthony Ashbolt to guide me through the jungle that is the PhD-candidature. A big thank you to you both! A special thanks to Charles for going way beyond the call of duty towards the end of the process. I will be forever grateful for the academic and personal support you have given me and I truly mean it when I say I couldn’t have done it without you! This thesis is dedicated to my greatest support group – my family! My sisters Anna and Victoria, my grandparents Sonja and Bengt, and my amazing parents Claes and Inga-Lill. Words cannot express the gratitude I feel for everything you have done for me! You always believed in me, even when I didn’t, and I have lost count of how many times you have come through for me! Like my mum always says – “it will always work out one way or the other”. Well, you were right! iv List of Acronyms ABC Australian Broadcasting Corporation ABRI Angkatan Bersenjata Republik Indonesia/Armed Forces of Indonesia ACP African, Caribbean and Pacific countries ACTU Australian Council of Trade Unions ADB Asian Development Bank ADF Australian Defence Force AFM Armed Forced Movement AI Amnesty International ALP Australian Labor Party ANU Australian National University ANZ Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited ANZUS Australia, New Zealand, United States Security Treaty APEC Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Apodeti Associacão Popular Democratica Timorense/Timorese Popular Democratic Association ARF ASEAN Regional Forum ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations ASPI Australian Strategic Policy Institute BBC British Broadcasting Corporation BHP Broken Hill Proprietary Company CIS Centre of Independent Studies CNN Cable News Network CNRT Conselho Nacional da Resistencia Timorense/National Council for Timorese Resistence v DFAT Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade DIO Australian Defence Intelligence Organisation DOD Department of Defence EC European Community ECP Enhanced Cooperation Program EU European Union FALINTIL Forças Armadas da Libertação Nacional de Timor-Leste/Armed Forces for the National Liberation of Timor Leste FRETILIN Frente Revolucionária de Timor-Leste Independente/Revolutionary Front for an Independent East Timor GDP Gross Domestic Product GOI Government of Indonesia GRA Guadalcanal Revolutionary Army ICISS International Commission on Intervention and State Sovereignty ICRC International Committee of the Red Cross IDMC International Displacement Monitoring Centre IFF Isatabu Freedom Fighters IFM Isatabu Freedom Movement IMF International Monetary Fund INTERFET International Force for East Timor IPMT International Peace Monitoring Team MEF Malaita Eagle Force MP Member of Parliament MPPMG Multinational Police Peace Monitoring Group NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NGO Non-Governmental Organisation vi NSC National Security Committee NZ New Zealand PIF Pacific Islands Forum PM Prime Minister PNG Papua New Guinea R2P Responsibility to Protect RAMSI Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands RSIP Royal Solomon Islands Police SAS Special Air Service Regiment SEATO Southeast Asia Treaty Organization SIPL Solomon Islands Plantation Limited SPF South Pacific Forum TNI Tentara Nasional Indonesia TPA Townsville Peace Agreement UDT União Democrática Timorense/Timorese Democratic Union UN United Nations UNAMET United Nations Mission in East Timor UNSCOM United Nations Special Commission US United States WMD Weapons of Mass Destruction WW II World War Two vii A note on Language The official name of the state is “Solomon Islands” however in English this sometimes is joined by the definite article to make it easier on the ear. In this thesis “Solomon Islands” is most commonly used, however on occasion “The Solomon Islands” and “the Solomons” are also used, depending on context. In certain places the gender-specific “he” is used. The author of course recognises that it could just as well be “she”, and the male pronoun is adopted only to improve the flow of the text and avoid the rather cumbersome “he/she”. Previously published work A