Issue No. 207 Friday, May 27 - Thursday, June 09, 2016 ORDER DELIVERY TO Photographer Adventurers Belgrade YOUR DOOR +381 11 4030 303 captures city’s ride the Manifest [email protected] - - - - - - - ISSN 1820-8339 1 architecture in Belgrade skies returns to BELGRADE INSIGHT IS PUBLISHED BY 0 1 new light Kalemegdan Page 5 Page 9 Page 10 9 7 7 1 8 2 0 8 3 3 0 0 0 Even when the Democrats longas continue to likely is This also are negotiations Drawn-out Surely the situation is urgent Rising Many of us who have experi We feel in-the-know because bia has shown us that (a.) no single no (a.) that us shown has bia party or coalition will ever gain the governa form to required majority negotiations political (b.) and ment, will never be quickly concluded. achieved their surprising result at last month’s general election, quickly itbecame clear that the re sult was actually more-or-less the result election other every as same in Serbia, i.e. inconclusive. as Serbia’s politicians form new political parties every time disagree with they their current party reg 342 currently are (there leader political parties in Serbia). istered the norm. One Ambassador Belgrade-based recently told me he was also alarmed by the distinct lack of urgency among politicians. Serbian “The country is standstill at and a I don’t understand their logic. If they are so eager to progress towards the EU and en theycome how investors, courage go home at 5pm sharp and don’t work weekends?” overtime. little a warrant to enough debt fails EDITOR’S WORD Predictability Political By Mark R. Pullen elections Serbian numerous enced rate ourselves as pundits when it comes to predicting election re sults and post-election moves. our experience of elections in Ser - - - - - - - - - - Serbian army - to deterNEWS investors in inches closer to NATO Serbian Serbian neutrality bondsNEWS rests on a delicate Foreign investors “The situation in the party seems “Dacic will eventually side with Nikolic agreed: “The question is Fearing they might not cross the Pensioners leader, Jovan Krkoba The reported price is the post of In addition, the Socialists are bar Tadic has denied talk of horse- At the same time, Dacic seems re reach an agreement “If we don’t Source: Balkan Insight (www.balkaninsight.com) Balkan Insight (www.balkaninsight.com) Source: balance between party over which way to turn. extremely complicated, as we try to convince the few remaining lag gards that we need to move out of one Socialist shadow,” Milosevic’s Party official complained. in a bid to guide his party into Tadic the European mainstream, but much of the membership and many offi cials may oppose that move.” will the party split or ‘old- back down,” he noted. timers’ threshold to enter parlia 5-per-cent ment, the Socialists teamed up with Association of Pensioners and the the led by business United Serbia Party, man Dragan Markovic “Palma”. bic, Palma and Dacic are all pushing for a deal with the Democrats. of deputy PM, with a brief in charge security for the Socialist leader. gaining for other ministries, includ ing capital investments, Kosovo and education, Belgrade media reported. trading with the Socialists, maintain ing that ministries would go only to those committed to working for the “strategic goal”. government’s negotiations with luctant to call off the nationalists. with the DSS and Radicals, par ty leadership will decide on future steps”, Dacic announced, following par new country’s of session first the liament on Wednesday. - - - - will remain - East and West interested but an escalation in lending to page 10 in military coop- Serbia as long as eration with NATO economic reforms hile the football world watch es events unfold at the Euro runs counter to However, a strong current also However, Mihajlo Markovic, a founder of Markovic, a prominent supporter Some younger Socialist officials Neighbourhood Matters faces extinction unless it changes. flows in the opposite direction, led by party veterans enraged the Tadic. prospect of a deal with recently warned of a crisis the party, if Dacic opts for the pro-European “nat bloc, abandoning the Socialists’ ural” ideological partners. of Milosevic during the 1990s, is seen as representative of the “old- timers” in the party who want to stay policies, true to the former regime’s even though these almost ruined the Socialists for good. have voiced frustration over the con tinuing impasse within their own Football Rebellion Football pean Championships in Austria and pean Championships in Switzerland, Bosnia is experiencing led by fans, play a soccer rebellion, enraged ers and former stars who are by what they see as corrupt leaders football association of the country’s leaders. stay on track. W public opinion June 13, 2008 Issue No. 1 / Friday, - - - - and risks upset- Miloš DAMNJANOVIĆ - nvestor interest in financing the ting Russia. Serbian government’s borrowing page 5 remains strong despite the growth Dušica TOMOVIĆ of Serbia’s public debt since 2008. Saša DRAGOJLO Two auctions held in May saw investors snapping up €87 million hile Serbian worth of treasury bills, a realization rate of I conomists are warning that pro over Serbia’s uncertainty longed “This year has been lost, from the leaders, includ- 100 per cent for the two auctions. After eight years of stagnation, the pro-European and nation With Nikolic believes the Socialists, led “The group of younger Socialists Business Insight Costs Mounting future could scare off investors, lead investors, lead future could scare off to higher inflation and jeopardise prosperity for years to come. says standpoint of economic policy,” Econom the of Stamenkovic Stojan ics Institute in Belgrade. to Serbia’s late president, Slobodan to Serbia’s Milosevic, and reformists who want the party to become a modern Euro pean social democrat organisation. the Socialists returned to centre stage after winning 20 of the 250 seats in elections. parliament in the May 11 alist blocs almost evenly matched, the Socialists now have the final say on the fate of country. by Ivica Dacic, will come over to if only out of a pragmatic de Tadic, sire to ensure their political survival. gathered around Dacic seems to be adding said, Nikolic majority”, the in that these reformists believe the party ing Prime Min- Meanwhile, yields on Serbian dollar E - - - - ister Aleksand- bonds maturing in 2021 fluctuated be- - er Vučić, issue tween 4.1 and 4.3 per cent for most of May. reassurances While Serbia’s cost of borrowing has de- that the country will not join NATO, a re- clined over the last few years in line with W Friday • June 13 2008 cent series of military agreements and a wider trend across Europe, what contin- exercises with the Western military al- ues to make its bonds appealing to inves- liance challenges assertions by Serbian tors is the possibility of higher earnings leadership that the country remains than in the case of many EU countries. THIS ISSUE OF “militarily neutral”. “Serbian bonds could be used selec- Belgrade Insight IS SUPPORTED BY: IS SUPPORTED tively to increase the yields on otherwise on a new gov ense negotiations ernment have divided the ranks Continued on page 2 The Serbian army has participated in a series of joint military exercises. Photo: Serbian Ministry of Defense “It looks as if the Socialists will Simultaneous negotiations held This divides “old-timers” loyal Socialist leader Ivica Dacic remains the Serbian kingmaker Socialist leader Ivica Dacic remains Lure of Tadic Alliance Splits Socialists Tadic Lure of government, old pro-EU While younger Socialists support joining a new, over the prospect. revolt Milosevic loyalists threaten in Belgrade By Rade Maroevic more conservatively structured portfoli- which holds of the Socialist Party, the balance of power between the blocs and has yet to announce main which side they will support. move towards a government led by the Democrats,” political analyst Mi lan Nikolic, of the independent Cen tre of Policy Studies, said. “But such a move might provoke deeper divi sions and even split the party.” with the pro-European and national ist blocs have drawn attention to a deep rift inside the Socialists. T os and might therefore appeal to investors such as European insurance companies or private investors actively managing Safety fears drive Balkan their holdings” John Howell, a UK-based former debt programme manager, told tourists from Turkey BIRN. ELECTIONS AND BREXIT BOOST A spate of bombings by Islamic State and enue from tourism in Turkey was $34.3 half of May. Overall, while the first five INTEREST IN BONDS billion in 2014 (about €30.6 billion) fall- months of 2014 saw 1.7 million tourists, Kurdistan Workers’ Party is wreaking havoc ing slightly to $31.5 billion (€28.1 billion) that number had fallen to only 1 million The victory of the Serbian Progressive in 2015, an 8-per-cent decrease. for the first five months of 2016. Party, SNS, in Serbia’s parliamentary elec- with Turkey’s tourist sector, prompting But the fall in visitor numbers has ac- tions held on April 24th appears to have holidaymakers to look elsewhere. celerated sharply since 2015 as conflict BALKAN TOURISTS ALSO increased investor confidence when it continues to grip the region and the num- TURNING AWAY comes to buying Serbian bonds and treas- Hamdi Fırat BUYUK bers for this year make grim reading. As ury bills. Turkey was one of the world’s six big- summer approaches, many more tourists In parallel with a general decrease in “Investors are betting that the next SNS ourists from the Bal- gest tourist destinations in 2014, drawing are expected to choose safer countries visitor numbers, tourism experts expect government will stick with the existing kans - like those from millions of holidaymakers to its Aegean as destinations, with Spain in particular a substantial drop in the number of holi- programme of reforms agreed with the Western Europe - are and Mediterranean beaches, the former likely to benefit from Turkey’s loss.