Pakistan’s Arms Procurement and Military Buildup, 1979–99 Also by Ayesha Siddiqa-Agha CURBING THE WEAPONS OF CIVILIAN DESTRUCTION MANAGEMENT OF LIGHT WEAPONS PRODUCTION IN PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTORS: A View from Pakistan MARITIME COOPERATION BETWEEN INDIA AND PAKISTAN: Building Confidence at Sea PAKISTAN’S NUCLEAR DOCTRINE AND COMMAND AND CONTROL: Impact on Regional Stability Pakistan’s Arms Procurement and Military Buildup, 1979–99 In Search of a Policy Ayesha Siddiqa-Agha Foreword by Lawrence Freedman © Ayesha Siddiqa-Agha 2001 Foreword © Lawrence Freedman 2001 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2001 978-0-333-73172-7 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London W1P 0LP. Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The author has asserted her right to be identified as the author of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. First published 2001 by PALGRAVE Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS and 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N. Y. 10010 Companies and representatives throughout the world PALGRAVE is the new global academic imprint of St. Martin’s Press LLC Scholarly and Reference Division and Palgrave Publishers Ltd (formerly Macmillan Press Ltd). ISBN 978-1-349-40677-7 ISBN 978-0-230-51352-5 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/9780230513525 This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Siddiqa-Agha, Ayesha. Pakistan’s arms procurement and military buildup, 1979–99 : in search of a policy / Ayesha Siddiqa-Agha. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. Pakistan—Military policy. 2. Pakistan—Armed Forces– –Procurement. 3. Defense industries—Pakistan. UA853.P3 S47 2000 355'.03355491—dc21 00–065222 10987654321 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 To the memory of my parents and Kono This page intentionally left blank Contents List of Tables ix List of Figures and Map ix Acknowledgements x Preface xi Foreword xii Glossary xiv Introduction 1 Part I 1 Development of Threat Perception 13 The Afghan crisis and Pakistan’s security 13 India–Pakistan: a conflict of interest17 Enhancement of threat in the Indian subcontinent19 The conventional arms race 29 2The Official Decision-Making System 35 Background 35 The 1973 White Paper on ‘Higher Defence Organization’ 37 Management of defense decision-making 38 The arms procurement decision-making process 50 The arms procurement funding process 53 3 Pakistan’s Power Politics and Defense Decision-Making 55 Direct actors 55 Indirect actors 75 4The Cost of Military Buildup 79 Defense: the economic burden 79 Social cost86 5 Pakistan’s Arms Suppliers 91 Pakistan–US arms transfer links: 1979–88 91 Pakistan–US arms transfer links: 1988–99 95 Pakistan–Europe arms transfer links: 1979–99 103 New sources 103 Pakistan–China links: pre-1979 105 vii viii Contents Pakistan–China arms transfer links: 1979–99 105 6Military Industrial Complex 109 Pakistan defense production: an overview 109 Defense production for the Army 118 Defense production for the Air Force 126 Defense production for the Navy 130 Research and Development establishments 132 Part II 7Military Buildup Decisions, 1979–90 137 Pakistan’s military buildup, 1979–90: an overview 137 Arms procurement for the Air Force 139 Arms procurement for the Army 146 Arms procurement for the Navy 154 8Military Buildup Decisions, 1990–99 160 Arms procurement for the Navy 160 Arms procurement for the Air Force 169 Weapons procurement for the Army 175 9Mutually Assured Deterrence: the Nuclear Option 178 Pakistan’s nuclear option: the strategic dimension 178 Nuclear proliferation: the domestic political perspective 183 Nuclear proliferation: the bureaucratic perspective 185 10 Looking Ahead 190 The need for military modernization 190 The political scene 192 The economic scene 195 The strategic scene 198 Notes 203 Bibliography 216 Index 227 List of Tables 1.1 Military Technology: a Comparative Analysis, pre-1979 30 1.2 India and Pakistan: the Qualitative Difference in Combat Aircraft Technology 32 4.1 Pakistan’s Official Defense Budget for FY 1971–72 to 1998–99 80 4.2 India and Pakistan: Arms Imports, 1985–95 81 4.3 The Weapons Procurement Burden, FY 1992–93 to 1998–99 82 4.4 Pakistan’s Annual Deficit85 4.5 Pakistan: Defense versus Development88 5.1 Pakistan–US Arms Transfers, 1979–98 96 5.2 Arms Acquisitions from Europe 104 5.3 China–Pakistan Arms Transfers, 1979–92 107 7.1 Comparison of Pakistan’s Main Battle Tank with Top Tanks of the World 149 List of Figures and Map Map 1.1 Pakistan–India: Tension Points 21 Figures 2.1 Defense Command & Control 36 2.2 Military: the New Command & Control System 39 2.3 Military Finance Wing 43 2.4 Defense Production Division 44 2.5 Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee 47 2.6 Army: Command & Control 49 2.7 Navy and Air Force: Command & Control 51 3.1 Nuclear Command & Control 68 4.1 Division of the Defense Budget 83 4.2 Division of the Army Budget 83 ix Acknowledgements It was not easy doing this study. I needed to acquaint myself with a variety of concepts and find information on the subject. I am extremely grateful to Lawrence Freedman, Professor Emeritus of the Department of War Studies, Kings College, London University, for helping me achieve my objective. With his immense academic capabilities and insight, he guided me through my work. I would also like to thank Dr Saadet Deger and Professor Somnath Sen; their directions were essential. Initially I faced insuperable hurdles in collecting information. I could not have achieved my results without the help of many senior military officers, diplomats and academics. Their cooperation was a mark of their open-mindedness and genuine desire to ensure the completion of an academic work on the subject. I am particularly grateful to Lt General (Retd) Farrukh Khan, Maj. General Khalid Bashir, Maj. General Salimullah, Lt General Jamsheed Malik, Maj. General (Retd) Ahmed Ali, Maj. General (Retd) Talat Masood, Lt General (Retd) Hameed Gull, Air Chief Marshal (Retd) Abbas Khattak, Air Marshal Aliudin, Admiral Abdul Aziz Mirza, Vice Admiral (Retd) Obaidullah Khan, Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan, Begum Abida Hussain, Mr Niaz A. Niak, Dr Ian Anthony, and Dr Kenneth Martin. I am extremely thankful to them for reposing the confidence in me and for the support they provided. I must also mention the help given to me by the former Military Accountant General Mr Majeed Khan, and Controller Factories Accounts Mr Abid Salaam. I would like to extend my special thanks to Admiral (Retd) Fasih Bokhari who provided me with the rare opportunity of under- standing the military environment. The list of people that I would like to acknowledge for their cooperation is long; I would like to extend my appreciation to all those people who provided me with the opportu- nity to talk to them about the subject of my research. This acknowledgement would be incomplete without mentioning the help rendered to me by my husband Omar. Without his coopera- tion, support, patience, encouragement and final editing I would have not been able to complete my work. I also owe much to Dr Shahla Haeri, Dr Jameel Jalabi, Khurram Tajammul, Sandra Tharumalingam and Manoj Narsey. Their motivation was vital in my decision to carry out my research and complete the book. The help provided by Choti at home was also invaluable. x Preface This book undertakes a comprehensive analysis of Pakistan’s arms pro- curement and military decision-making from 1979 to 1999. The study did not focus on the single perspective, strategy. The objective was to explain the subject with all its intricacies. Indubitably, Pakistan’s rela- tions with its traditional adversary, India, had a significant impact on the way decisions were made in procuring equipment and building nuclear deterrence. However, the peculiar decision-making environ- ment, the role played by the military in defense policy-making, the evolution of democracy during this period and its impact on relevant decision-making, and the national and industrial constraints are ele- ments that had an equally forceful impact on Islamabad’s military buildup. Undertaking such a study was certainly not an easy task. The Pakistani military establishment, in particular, is known for its high sense of secrecy. The parliament, that is, technically speaking, the body that approves military spending, has much less information than it ought. Military modernization planning is one area in which there is little information available domestically and internationally. The core objective of this book is to reveal how these decisions are made and what factors have impact on this policy-making. The period in which this research started was particularly good: doors were relatively open for a researcher in this area. There were a number of areas where infor- mation was not available and it is hoped that this study will help with further research. Transparency of decisions, after all, is one of the primary features of a democratic process that is currently not a strength of the Pakistani political system. It is also hoped that with this study the research community, especially in Pakistan, will get an insight, which may help it to re-think and redefine national strategic priorities.