Florida Department of Transportation-Aviation and Spaceports Office 2016 AIR SERVICE STUDY Data Explanation .......................................................................................................................................... iv Air Passenger Origin and Destination (O&D) Survey ............................................................................... iv Official Airline Guide (OAG) ..................................................................................................................... iv INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................... 1 ANALYSIS OF SCHEDULED COMMERCIAL AIR SERVICE IN FLORIDA ................................................ 3 TRENDS AND CONDITIONS IN AVIATION ................................................................................................. 4 Regulatory Impacts ....................................................................................................................................... 4 Open Skies Agreements – Global Impacts ............................................................................................... 4 Effects on Air Service ................................................................................................................................ 5 Customs and Immigration – Global Impacts ............................................................................................. 5 Preclearance/Staffing ............................................................................................................................ 5 Visa Waiver Program (VWP) ................................................................................................................. 6 Automated Passport Control (APC) ....................................................................................................... 6 Effects on Air Service ................................................................................................................................ 7 Preclearance .......................................................................................................................................... 7 Automated Passenger Control (APC) .................................................................................................... 7 Passenger Facility Charges (PFCs) – National Impacts ........................................................................... 7 Effects on Air Service ............................................................................................................................ 7 Contract Towers – National Impacts ......................................................................................................... 7 Effects on Air Service ............................................................................................................................ 8 Transportation Security Administration (TSA) – National Impacts ............................................................ 8 Proposed Budget Cuts/Staffing ............................................................................................................. 8 Managed Inclusion II .............................................................................................................................. 8 Effects on Air Service ................................................................................................................................ 9 Budget Cuts/Staffing .............................................................................................................................. 9 Removal of Managed Inclusion II .......................................................................................................... 9 Airline Pilot Shortage – National Impacts .................................................................................................. 9 Training Requirements .......................................................................................................................... 9 Impact on EAS Airports ......................................................................................................................... 9 Effects on Air Service ................................................................................................................................ 9 Demographic and Social ............................................................................................................................. 10 Slow Growth in Europe and Japan – Global Impacts .............................................................................. 10 Effects on Air Service .............................................................................................................................. 10 Infectious Diseases (Zika/Ebola) – Global Impacts ................................................................................. 10 Effects on Air Service .............................................................................................................................. 11 U.S./Florida Population, Age, Income Changes – National/Florida Impacts ........................................... 11 Population ............................................................................................................................................ 11 Millennials ............................................................................................................................................ 11 Aging Population .................................................................................................................................. 11 Income ................................................................................................................................................. 11 Effects on Air Service .............................................................................................................................. 12 Economic ................................................................................................................................................. 12 Opening of Cuba Market – Global Impacts ......................................................................................... 12 Effects on Air Service .............................................................................................................................. 13 Oil Prices – National Impacts .................................................................................................................. 13 Effects on Air Service .............................................................................................................................. 14 Technology .................................................................................................................................................. 14 Boeing 787 Dreamliner – Global Impacts................................................................................................ 14 Effects on Air Service .............................................................................................................................. 14 Technological Development – National Impacts ..................................................................................... 14 NextGen ............................................................................................................................................... 14 Airline Ticketing Technology ................................................................................................................ 15 Luggage Self-Tagging ......................................................................................................................... 15 Off-Airport Check-In ............................................................................................................................. 15 Effects on Air Service .............................................................................................................................. 15 NextGen ............................................................................................................................................... 15 Ticketing ............................................................................................................................................... 15 Self-Tagging ......................................................................................................................................... 15 Off-Airport Check-In ............................................................................................................................. 16 Airline .......................................................................................................................................................... 16 Consolidation of U.S. Carriers – National Impacts .................................................................................. 16 Effects on Air Service .............................................................................................................................. 16 Airline Seat Size & Load Factor – National Impacts ............................................................................... 16 Effects on Air Service .............................................................................................................................. 17 “Uber-Style” Flights – National Impacts ..................................................................................................