SUBMISSION TO SENATE RURAL & REGIONAL AFFAIRS & TRANSPORT INQUIRY INTO AUSTRALIA’S FUTURE OIL SUPPLY & ALTERNATIVE TRANSPORT FUELS 7 FEBRUARY 2007 SUBMISSION TO SENATE RURAL & REGIONAL AFFAIRS & TRANSPORT INQUIRY INTO AUSTRALIA’S FUTURE OIL SUPPLY & ALTERNATIVE TRANSPORT FUELS TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION ........................................................... 2 2. THE CRITICAL REGIONAL LINKS .................................. 2 3. DATA ON REGIONAL ISSUES ........................................ 3 4. SOCIAL ISSUES ............................................................ 8 5. NORTH MELBOURNE AND CITY LOOP TRAIN CAPACITY & TRAIN LOADINGS ..................................................... 9 6. CONGESTION - GENERAL ROAD NETWORK................. 11 7. ASPECTS THAT WILL INFLUENCE CONGESTION ......... 13 8. GROWTH AREA PLANNING ......................................... 18 9. CONCLUSIONS AND SUMMARY................................... 20 - 1 - SUBMISSION TO SENATE RURAL & REGIONAL AFFAIRS & TRANSPORT INQUIRY INTO AUSTRALIA’S FUTURE OIL SUPPLY & ALTERNATIVE TRANSPORT FUELS 1. INTRODUCTION Fuels are fundamental to many transport activities and as a result many elements of society and today’s lifestyles. Transport is a means to an end and is a generated activity rather than an activity for its own sake (except walking and cycling for pleasure/health). Therefore there is a strong link to land use planning, social needs, economic influences and human emotions and reactions. Freight movement is influenced by financial and economic considerations whilst people are influenced by financial, social and emotional considerations. The purpose of this submission is to: • Highlight the critical regional congestion issues affecting the current community and the need for planning to address the issues for the future, and • Provide general views and comments on issues relating to congestion, its impact on fuel and the Wyndham community. Council is not in a position to provide commentary on projections of oil production or potential new sources of oil, or alternative transport fuels, but rather sees these as aspects of the Inquiry’s Terms of Reference better addressed by organisations with appropriate expertise. However Wyndham Council can highlight how the issue of congestion has manifest itself, the economic and social implications of price impacts on transport patterns and the aspects affecting the Wyndham community. 2. THE CRITICAL REGIONAL LINKS The most critical regional link is towards the Melbourne Central Activity District. Other than Wyndham itself, the principal destination of resident workers is the City of Melbourne (18.3%). Table 1 indicates the destinations of resident workers in Wyndham in 2001. Table 1: Journey to Work Pattern of Wyndham Resident Workers – 2001 ABS Census Proportion Corridor Municipality Number (2001) Internal Wyndham 13065 36.9% South-west Geelong 549 1.6% North-west Melton 259 0.7% North Brimbank 2068 5.8% Moonee Valley 635 1.8% North-east Moreland 320 0.9% Hume 825 2.3% Maribyrnong 2340 6.6% East Hobsons Bay 4221 11.9% Melbourne 6498 18.3% Port Phillip 1671 4.7% Extended Inner Yarra 607 1.7% Stonnington 321 0.9% The corridor formed by Hobsons Bay, Maribyrnong and Melbourne as well as the inner suburbs of Port Phillip and Yarra form almost 45% of the resident worker destinations. - 2 - SUBMISSION TO SENATE RURAL & REGIONAL AFFAIRS & TRANSPORT INQUIRY INTO AUSTRALIA’S FUTURE OIL SUPPLY & ALTERNATIVE TRANSPORT FUELS This travel demand highlights and reinforces the two significant regional transport network constraints and the need for: • additional capacity for trains through North Melbourne Station, and • planning for the additional travel demand across the Maribyrnong River / Yarra River A principal influencing factor is the population growth of Wyndham and the region. 3. DATA ON REGIONAL ISSUES 3.1 Melbourne’s Household Growth Melbourne 2030 calls for a major shift in the focus of Melbourne’s growth, from East and South to the North and West. It is already occurring as shown in Figure 1. The historically significant south and east has reduced its share of growth substantially over the last 20 years, whilst the west and north has increased since the 1960s to now be at a similar level as the south and east. Dwelling Growth North/West vs South-East vs Inner Region (Melbourne 1911-2005) 80 70 West/North 60 Region 50 lling Growth South/East 40 Region Dwe s ' 30 20 Inner bourne l 10 Region e M 0 % 1911- 1921- 1933- 1947- 1954- 1961- 1966- 1971- 1976- 1981- 1986- 1991- 1996- 2001- -10 1921 1933 1947 1954 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2005 Growth Period Figure 1: Household Growth by Region As specific growth municipalities, Melton and Wyndham are now providing the main growth locations in Melbourne. This is reflected in Figure 2 and Table 2. - 3 - SUBMISSION TO SENATE RURAL & REGIONAL AFFAIRS & TRANSPORT INQUIRY INTO AUSTRALIA’S FUTURE OIL SUPPLY & ALTERNATIVE TRANSPORT FUELS Total Dwelling Approvals - Melton/Wyndham vs Casey/Cardinia vs Hume/Whittlesea s l a 6000 ov Fastest growing 10 LGAs in Australia (growth rate 2003-04) 5000 ppr A 4000 lling e 3000 w D 2000 of r 1000 mbe 0 u N 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Melton/Wyndham Casey/Cardinia Hume/Whittlesea Figure 2: Dwelling Approvals by Location Table 2 indicates the ten fastest growing municipalities in Australia (2003/2004). Perth and Capel in Western Australia are listed one and two but in terms of absolute population increase they are low and are one and two due to their existing low population base having populations less than 10,000. Melton and Wyndham have significantly higher actual population increases and had higher population bases of 60,000 and 100,000 respectively. Table 2: Ten Fastest Growing LGAs in Australia (growth rate 2003-04) LGA State Growth Growth rate 2003-04 (p) 2003-04 (p) Perth (C) WA 1,132 12.1% Capel (S) WA 926 11.6% Melton (S) Vic 5,923 9.1% Wyndham (C) Vic 8,378 8.4% Mandurah (C) WA 4,296 7.9% Wanneroo (C) WA 6,727 7.2% Cardinia (S) Vic 3,315 6.5% Melbourne (C) Vic 3,710 6.4% Chittering (S) WA 198 6.3% Miriam Vale (S) Qld 291 6.0% Source ABS Cat No. 3218.0 – Regional Population Growth Australia and New Zealand, 2003-04 - 4 - SUBMISSION TO SENATE RURAL & REGIONAL AFFAIRS & TRANSPORT INQUIRY INTO AUSTRALIA’S FUTURE OIL SUPPLY & ALTERNATIVE TRANSPORT FUELS Figure 3 shows the disparity in population forecasts by the Department of Sustainability (DSE) in their publications Victoria in Future 2000 and Victoria in Future 2004 and (i) the actual growth observed and reported by ABS and (ii) the forecasts by Wyndham Council. Wyndham Forecast Population Increase 180,000 160,000 n o i 140,000 t a l 120,000 u 100,000 Pop 80,000 n 60,000 se i 40,000 crea 20,000 n I 0 -20,000 2 5 6 1 1 01 0 03 04 0 06 11 1 2 0 0 0 03 20 20 2 20 20 2 20 20 2 /2 30 20 WyCC ABS VIF 2004 VIF 2000 Figure 3: Population Forecasts fro Wyndham Wyndham’s growth has tripled the Victoria in Future 2000 (VIF2000) population forecasts since 2001. The subsequent Victoria in Future 2004 figures are sound in the short term but may also under-estimate the longer term situation. The VIF2000 figures were used in the Inner West Integrated Transport Strategy (IWITS) and Council is unsure which population forecasts are being used in the West Gate Bridge Study by VicRoads which was initiated in 2003. The overall implications are: • the predicted traffic flows on the road network will occur sooner than estimated or predicted. • The estimates of train patronage and additional services required will occur sooner than estimated • The need to plan for and develop a strategy to address these two issues has to commence earlier than currently thought. 3.2 Traffic Growth/Projections Figure 4 indicates the historic daily growth of traffic flow on the West Gate Bridge over the last 10 years. The projected volume for 2021 is based on the forecast from the Inner West Integrated Transport Strategy (IWITS). - 5 - SUBMISSION TO SENATE RURAL & REGIONAL AFFAIRS & TRANSPORT INQUIRY INTO AUSTRALIA’S FUTURE OIL SUPPLY & ALTERNATIVE TRANSPORT FUELS West Gate Bridge Daily Traffic Flows 200 0s) 180 00 ' 160 ( y 140 a 120 D r 100 80 es pe 60 l c 40 hi 20 e V - 5 6 7 8 9 1 2 3 4 0 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 9 0 21 - - - - - - - - - - l l r r r r r r r r 20 Ju Ju Ap Ap Ap Ap Ap Ap Ap Ap y Commercial vehicles are 12% - 13% of the traffic flow Figure 4: West Gate Bridge Traffic Flows Demand projections for the West Gate Bridge (based on outdated population projections used in the IWSTS) suggest that daily volumes will reach close to 200,000 vehicles by 2021. In practice the carrying capacity of the Bridge during peak periods is already fully utilised, and the alternate routes of Footscray Road, Dynon Road and Racecourse Road are also near saturation and have very limited potential to accommodate significant volume increases. Yet the draft IWITS currently indicates potential traffic volumes of: • Smithfield Road – 67,000 vpd • Footscray Road – 58,000 vpd • Dynon Road – 54,000 vpd These traffic volumes are well in excess of the capacity of four lane divided roads (40,000 – 45,000 vpd) unless the distribution of demand throughout the day changes significantly. Therefore the probability is that lengthy delays will occur to all traffic – commuters, freight, and business trips. A major concern is that the IWITS used Victoria in Future 2000 forecasts of population growth and distribution. These are significantly less than current estimates by DSE and the forecasts of the Western Region Councils. The consequences are: (i) the estimated traffic flows will occur earlier than forecast, (ii) the overall travel demand task will be significantly greater than estimated and require more significant actions than currently considered - 6 - SUBMISSION TO SENATE RURAL & REGIONAL AFFAIRS & TRANSPORT INQUIRY INTO AUSTRALIA’S FUTURE OIL SUPPLY & ALTERNATIVE TRANSPORT FUELS 3.3 Port of Melbourne Activity Forward projections from the Port of Melbourne show that container trade will treble in the next 20 years.