FMSO.LEAVENWORTH.ARMY.MIL/OEWATCH Vol. 5 Issue #07 July 2015 Foreign Military Studies Office OEWATCH FOREIGN NEWS & PERSPECTIVES OF THE OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT FOREIGN NEWS & PERSPECTIVES OF THE OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT SPECIAL ESSAY: Kurds in Iraq and Syria: Aspirations and Realities in a Changing Middle East See p. 71 TURKEY Helicopter 3 A New Kurdish Star in Turkish Politics 27 The Hair-Raising Business of Assassins for Hire RUSSIA, UKRAINE 4 Kurds Push Back ISIS in Tal Abyad 28 The New Generation Cartel of Jalisco “Grows 44 Russian Missiles that Compel to Peace 5 Turkey to Open Military Base in Qatar Like Cancer” in Mexico 46 Russia Puts US Navy on Notice with Improved “Shipping Container” Missile MIDDLE EAST INDO-PACIFIC ASIA 48 3D Printers Will “Bake” Future Russian UAVs 7 Countering the Islamic State inside Iran 29 A Controversial Project: Building the Kra Canal 50 Russia Fields New Tactical C2 System with 8 Son of Former President Sent to Prison 31 Piracy on the Rise in Southeast Asia FBCB2-like Capabilities 9 “We Are at War with the United States and its 32 Marcos Expresses Concern Over Bangsamoro 52 Russian Airborne Will Add Division, and Expand Allies” Police Turning into a Private Military to 60,000 Paratroopers 10 Syria’s Army of Conquest 33 Indonesian Leader Reaffirms the Government’s 54 Russian Federation Opens First Joint Training 12 Saudi Arabia’s Border Troubles Commitment to Religious Harmony Base and Simulation Center 34 ASEAN-Chinese Declaration Put to the Test 56 Armenia and Iran Discuss Military Cooperation AFRICA 35 Cambodian Press Notes Potential US Army 57 Caucasus 2014 International Conference in 14 Libya is the New Iraq Stockpile Yerevan 16 Chair of African Union Calls for an African ICC to 36 Pirates of Hijacked Oil Tanker off the Coast of 59 Khodorkovsky Calls for Major Shift in Chechnya Try Western Leaders Malaysia Detained in Vietnam Policy 17 Nigeria Demands to Stay in the Lead of 37 Thailand Grants Temporary Amnesty to 60 Soviet-Russian Laser Weapons Multinational Joint Task Force Against BH Members of Southern Insurgent Group 62 Belarus Border Anxiety 18 Nigeria Clarifies Policy on Use of Camouflage 38 ASEAN Reviews Statistics Related to Islamic 63 Reporting of Russian Casualties-A Crime? 19 Nigeria and Kenya Looked at as Failed Models Extremism in Southeast Asia 65 Don’t Mess with a Soldier’s Chow, Pay, Leave or of Counterterrorism Mail 20 How to Improve the AU Military Staff CENTRAL ASIA 66 Northern Fleet Plans Active Summer Training Committee 39 Consequences of the Defection of OMON and Large Exercise 21 2011 Libyan Intervention Divides African Commander Gulmurod Khalimov 67 When Cartographers and Statesmen Collide Countries 40 Ammunition Manufacturing in Kazakhstan 68 Russian Reactivation of Lourdes SIGINT 22 ACIRC: Ending Before it Begins? 41 Classifying Nationalist Groups in Kyrgyzstan Collection Center under Consideration 42 The Purpose of Russian Military Training in 69 Russia Is Considering Military Bases in Cuba LATIN AMERICA Tajikistan Other Than Lourdes 23 Lawfare in Colombia 70 Russia Considers its Option in Transdniestria 24 Natural Disaster in Colombian News Headlines EUROPE 24 Rafael Correa Worried? 43 Russian Financial Support and Political SPECIAL ESSAY 25 Government and FARC Leaders Sign Demining Influence in Republika Srpska 71 Kurds in Iraq and Syria: Aspirations and Agreement 43 Bilateral Cooperation despite Macedonia and Realities in a Changing Middle East 26 Mexican Drug Cartel Shoots Down Military Greece’s Name Dispute The Foreign Military Studies Office (FMSO) at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, OEWATCH is part of the US Army Training and Foreign News & Perspectives Doctrine Command G-2’s Operational of the Operational Environment Environment Enterprise and for over 25 Volume 5 | Issue 07 July | 2015 years has conducted open source research Regional Analysts and on foreign perspectives of defense and Expert Contributors security issues, emphasizing those topics that are understudied or unconsidered. Turkey Karen Kaya Operational Environment Watch provides Middle East Tara Beeny translated selections and analysis from Michael Rubin Lucas Winter a diverse range of foreign articles and Jacob Zenn other media that our analysts and expert Africa Robert Feldman contributors believe will give military Jason Warner and security professionals an added Lucas Winter dimension to their critical thinking about Jacob Zenn the Operational Environment. Latin America Geoff Demarest Brenda Fiegel Indo-Pacific Asia Cindy Hurst Materials, outside of the original foreign press article, Anthony Ortiz under copyright have not been used. All articles published in the Operational Environment Watch are not provided China, Korea, Japan Cindy Hurst in full, and were originally published in foreign (non-US) Chris Marsh media. Tim Thomas FMSO has provided some editing, format, and graphics Blaze Zandoli to these articles to conform to organizational standards. 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Tim Thomas Contact FMSO at: Editor-in-Chief Tom Wilhelm Editors Ray Finch [email protected] Harry Orenstein Design Editor Keith French TURKEY Top A New Kurdish Star in Turkish Politics 13 June 2015 “Demirtaş has now taken his place as a strong actor within the [Turkish] political scene, as someone who gives [the public] hope for “stopping Erdoğan,” strengthening the “peace process” and moving the country towards a lasting peace.” Source: Necati Özkan, “Demirtaş ve strateji kazandı (Demirtaş and strategy won),” Radikal.com.tr, 13 June 2015, http://www.radikal.com.tr/ OE Watch Commentary: The Turkish electorate went yazarlar/necati_ozkan/demirtas_ve_strateji_kazandi-1378359 to the ballot box on 7 June to elect the 550 members of the Grand National Assembly. As a result of the elections, “…The 7 June elections were really held among two people: Recep Tayyip the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost Erdoğan, who, in order to establish a “so-called Presidential system” its parliamentary majority for the first time in 13 years, designed for himself, said ‘Give me 400 parliamentarians and let’s resolve requiring the formation of a coalition government. While this peacefully; and Selahattin Demirtaş, who got up on the Parliament coalition governments are nothing new for Turkey, something podium and said, “We will not make you [an executive] president…” 42 unprecedented happened in this election: a pro-Kurdish year old Selahattin Demirtaş who is a young leader, was the only leader able to increase his party’s votes based on his charisma, sympathy and party, the People’s Democracy Party (HDP) entered the political style. parliament by receiving 13% of the votes, translating into 80 seats. The accompanying passages from the Turkish press With the results of the 7 June elections, Selahattin Demirtaş has succeeded in changing the fate of the Kurdish political movement. He was discuss the significance of this. Many are attributing the the main force behind the increase of the Kurdish political movement’s party’s success to its co-chair, Selahattin Demirtaş, a 42 year voter support from 5.1% (the average support it has received in the last 10 old charismatic human rights lawyer. elections) to 13.1%. With this performance, Demirtaş has proven himself within the Kurdish political movement… He moved HDP beyond an ethnic As the accompanying passages discuss, President Erdoğan party and made it into a Turkey party, by expanding it and opening up new had made clear his ambitions to turn Turkey into an horizons for it. executive presidential system with powers that dominate the Demirtaş has now taken his place as a strong actor within the [Turkish] other branches of government and was hoping that the AKP political scene, as someone who gives [the public] hope for “stopping would win enough seats to achieve this. Demirtaş ran on a Erdoğan”, strengthening the “peace process” and moving the country campaign slogan of “We will not make you an [executive] towards a lasting peace.” president,” which proved successful. The passages also note that Demirtaş framed his party not as just a Kurdish party, but as a mainstream liberal party. His charismatic and Source: “HDP kimden oy aldı (From whom did the HDP get votes?),” Radikal.com.tr, 15 June 2015, http://blog.radikal.com.tr/politika/hdp- peaceful style helped his party increase its votes by over kimden-oy-aldi-103728 100% in this election. As the passages illustrate, he appealed to both Kurds and Turks who were worried about Erdoğan’s increasing ambitions. “[Many of the votes that the HDP received] may be permanent, but there are also plenty of them that were given to push back the AKP and prevent As the second passage discusses, Demirtaş was able to Erdoğan’s presidency. In particular, the HDP’s “We won’t make you capitalize on the anti-AKP sentiment in the Western part of president” slogan brought the party a lot of strategic votes.” the country and garner votes from liberal Turks who would normally not vote for the HDP. These are being considered “strategic voters,” whose main priority was to push back the AKP and prevent Erdoğan’s presidency. There are an estimated 15-20 million Kurds in Turkey, making up almost 19-23 percent of the population. Despite this, there was never a pro-Kurdish party in the parliament until now, because the pro-Kurdish parties were unable to cross the 10 percent electoral threshold required to gain seats in the parliament.