Advance Praise for PEAK EVERYTHING Richard Heinberg brings important news that few will want to hear — the limits we’ve been hearing about for four decades are really upon us. He also brings a pretty good hint of the directions we might take to escape the tightening knot. An important book from an important thinker. — Bill McKibben, author Deep Economy: the Wealth of Communities and the Durable Future There are few harder questions than the ones Richard Heinberg takes on in Peak Everything. Fortunately, he addresses them with his customary fearlessness, intellectual rigor and good sense. More than anyone else I’ve encountered, Heinberg has an answer to the most fundamental question of all; “How shall we go on from here.” Reading this, I can believe there is hope that we can. — Sharon Astyk, farmer, publisher of Cansabon’s Book blog, author of The New Home Front: Families and the Coming Ecological Crisis (in press) Once again — and with eyes as peeled to the task as a Buddha’s — Richard Heinberg jumps into the cauldron of global resource de - cline. This is his most integrated report from the social, economic, and ecological contraction now unfolding, which he delivers with mindfulness, compassion, and a view to humanity’s strengths. — Chellis Glendinning, author of My Name Is Chellis and I’m in Recovery from Western Civilization Peak Oil is a great threat to our way of life, and Richard Heinberg is one of the world’s best-known writers and analysts of the subject. In Peak Everything, Heinberg gives us a series of provocative essays about the profound individual and global implications of Peak Oil. — Albert A. Bartlett, Professor Emeritus of Physics, University of Colorado at Boulder New Socie ty Publishers CATAlOGInG In PUBlICATIOn DATA A catalog record for this publication is available from the national library of Canada. Copyright © ('') by Richard Heinberg. All rights reserved. Cover design and illustration by Diane McIntosh. Printed in Canada. First printing July 2007. Hardcover ISBn: 978-0-86571-598-1 Inquiries regarding requests to reprint all or part of Peak Everything should be addressed to new Society Publishers at the address below. To order directly from the publishers, please call toll-free (north America) 1-800-567-6772, or order online at www.newsociety.com Any other inquiries can be directed by mail to: new Society Publishers P.O. Box 189, Gabriola Island, BC V0R 1X0 , Canada (250) 247-9737 new Society Publishers’ mission is to publish books that contribute in fundamental ways to building an ecologically sustainable and just society, and to do so with the least possible impact on the environment, in a manner that models this vision. We are committed to doing this not just through education, but through action. This book is one step toward ending global deforestation and climate change. It is printed on acid-free paper that is 100% post-consumer recycled (100% old growth forest-free), processed chlorine free, and printed with vegetable-based, low-VOC inks, with covers produced using Forest Stewardship Council-certified stock. Additionally, new Society purchases carbon offsets annually, operating with a carbon- neutral footprint. For further information, or to browse our full list of books and purchase securely, visit our website at: www.newsociety.com NEW SOCIETY PUBLISHERS www.newsociety.com Contents Introduction: Peak Everything . 1 On TechnOlOgy, AgriculTure, And The ArTs 1. Tools with a life of Their Own . 31 2. Fifty Million Farmers . 47 3. (post- )Hydrocarbon Aesthetics . 67 On nATure’s limiTs And The humAn cOndiTiOn 4. Five Axioms of Sustainability . 85 5. Parrots and Peoples . 97 6. Population, Resources, and Human Idealism . 113 The end Of One erA, The Beginning Of AnOTher 7. The Psychology of Peak Oil and Climate Change . 127 8. Bridging Peak Oil and Climate Change Activism . 141 9. Boomers’ last Chance? . 159 10. A letter From the Future . 173 11. Talking Ourselves to Extinction . 185 Resources for Action . 199 notes . 201 Index . 207 About the Author . 213 vii Acknowledgments It would be impossible to thank everyone who has helped with this book in some way. The chapters herein developed over many months, during which I was traveling a great deal and speaking to audiences large and small about the problem of oil depletion, its likely consequences, and what we can do to wean our societies from our collective addiction to fossil fuels. I met hundreds of people during these travels whose words and pioneering actions are re - flected in these pages. Once again, I must acknowledge an enormous debt of gratitude to my wife Janet Barocco, who supports and balances me in so many ways as I pursue the rather lopsided life of a writer-lecturer. This is the fourth book project on which I have had the pleasure of working with Chris and Judith Plant of new Society Publishers. A note of appreciation must also go to Ingrid Witvoet, who shep - herded the book through the production process, and Murray Reiss, who copy-edited the manuscript. My thanks to Jennifer Bresee for research assistance, and to Susan Williamson for general assistance. As in the past, my students and co-faculty at new College de - serve mention for their ongoing support, as do the subscribers to my monthly MuseLetter . Finally, I would like to voice both appreciation and thanks to Ju - lian Darley and Celine Rich-Darley — founders of Post Carbon In - stitute, and catalysts in the global response to the twin crises of fos - sil fuels (climate change and resource depletion). ix Introduction: Peak Everything uring The pAsT few years the phrase Peak Oil has entered Dthe global lexicon. It refers to that moment in time when the world will achieve its maximum possible rate of oil extraction; from then on, for reasons having mostly to do with geology, the amount of petroleum available to society on a daily or yearly basis will begin to dwindle. Most informed analysts agree that this will happen dur - ing the next two or three decades; an increasing number believe that it is happening now — that conventional oil production peaked in 2005–2006 and that the flow to market of all hydrocarbon liq - uids taken together will start to diminish around 2010. 1 The conse - quences, as they begin to accumulate, are likely to be severe: the world is overwhelmingly dependent on oil for transportation, agriculture, plastics, and chemicals; thus a lengthy process of adjust - ment will be required. According to one recent US government- sponsored study, if the peak does occur soon replacements are unlikely to appear quickly enough and in sufficient quantity to avert what it calls “unprecedented” social, political, and economic im - pacts. 2 This book is not an introduction to the subject of Peak Oil; sev - eral existing volumes serve that function (including my own The Party’s Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies). 3 Instead 1 2 Peak Everything it addresses the social and historical context in which Peak Oil is oc - curring, and explores how we can reorganize our thinking and ac - tion in several critical areas to better navigate this perilous time. Our socio-historical context takes some time and perspective to appreciate. Upon first encountering Peak Oil, most people tend to assume it is merely a single isolated problem to which there is a sim - ple solution — whether of an eco-friendly nature (more renewable energy) or otherwise (more coal). But prolonged reflection and study tend to eat away at the viability of such “solutions.” Mean - while, as one contemplates how we humans have so quickly become so deeply dependent on the cheap, concentrated energy of oil and other fossil fuels, it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that we have caught ourselves on the horns of the Universal Ecological Dilem- ma, consisting of the interlinked elements of population pressure, resource depletion, and habitat destruction — on a scale unprece - dented in history. Oil & Gas Production ProÞles 2006 Base Case 55 50 45 40 ) b G ( 35 r a e Y a 30 s l e r r 25 a B s n 20 o i l l i B 15 10 5 0 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Regular Oil Heavy etc. Deepwater Polar NGL Gas Non-Con Gas Figure 1. Production profiles for world oil and natural gas, history and fore - cast. Credit: Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) Introduction 3 Petroleum is not the only important resource quickly depleting. Readers already acquainted with the Peak Oil literature know that regional production peaks for natural gas have already occurred, and that over the short term the economic consequences of gas shortages are likely to be even worse for Europeans and north Americans than those for oil. And while coal is often referred to as being an abundant fossil fuel, with reserves capable of supplying the world at current rates of usage for two hundred years into the fu - ture, recent studies updating global reserves and production fore - casts conclude that global coal production will peak and begin to decline in ten to twenty years. 4 Because fossil fuels supply about 85 percent of the world’s total energy, peaks in these fuels virtually en - sure that the world’s energy supply will begin to shrink within a few Figure 2. Global coal production, history and forecast. The International Energy Agency’s “World Energy Outlook 2006” (WEO 2006) discusses two future sce - narios for global coal production: a “reference scenario” that assumes uncon - strained coal consumption, and an “alternative policy scenario” in which con - sumption is capped through government efforts to reduce climate impacts.