Western University Scholarship@Western Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository 8-15-2019 10:00 AM A Methodology for Assessing Dynamic Resilience of Coastal Cities to Climate Change Influenced Hydrometeorological Disasters Angela Peck The University of Western Ontario Supervisor Simonovic, Slobodan P. The University of Western Ontario Graduate Program in Civil and Environmental Engineering A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the equirr ements for the degree in Doctor of Philosophy © Angela Peck 2019 Follow this and additional works at: https://ir.lib.uwo.ca/etd Part of the Civil and Environmental Engineering Commons Recommended Citation Peck, Angela, "A Methodology for Assessing Dynamic Resilience of Coastal Cities to Climate Change Influenced Hydrometeorological Disasters" (2019). Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository. 6457. https://ir.lib.uwo.ca/etd/6457 This Dissertation/Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by Scholarship@Western. It has been accepted for inclusion in Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository by an authorized administrator of Scholarship@Western. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Abstract Confronted with rapid urbanization, intensified tourism, population densification, increased migration, and climate change impacts, coastal cities are facing more challenges now than ever before. Traditional disaster management approaches are no longer sufficient to address the increased pressures facing urban areas. A paradigm shift from disaster risk reduction to disaster resilience building strategies is required to provide holistic, integrated, and sustainable disaster management looking forward. To address some of the shortcomings in current disaster resilience assessment research, a mathematical and computational framework was developed to help quantify, compare, and visualize dynamic disaster resilience. The proposed methodological framework for disaster resilience combines physical, economic, engineering, health, and social spatio-temporal impacts and capacities of urban systems in order to provide a more holistic representation of disaster resilience. To capture the dynamic spatio-temporal characteristics of resilience and gauge the effectiveness of potential climate change adaptation options, a disaster resilience simulator tool (DRST) was developed to employ the mathematical framework. The DRST is applied to a case study in Metro Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. The simulation model focuses on the impacts of climate change-influenced riverine flooding and sea level rise for three future climates based on the results of the CGCM3 global climate model and two (2) future emissions scenarios. The output of the analyses includes a dynamic set of resilience maps and graphs to demonstrate changes in disaster resilience in both space and time. The DRST demonstrates the value of a quantitative resilience assessment approach to disaster management. Simulation results suggest that various adaptation options such as access to emergency funding, provision of mobile hospital services, and managed retreat can all help to increase disaster resilience. Results also suggest that, at a regional scale, Metro Vancouver is relatively resilient to climate change influenced-hydrometeorological hazards, however it is not distributed proportionately across the region. Although a pioneering effort by nature, the methodological and computational framework behind the DRST could ultimately provide decision support to disaster management professionals, policy makers, and urban planners. ii Keywords climate change adaptation; geographic information systems; hydro-meteorological disaster management; resilience quantification; system dynamics simulation iii Summary for Lay Audience Coastal cities are facing more challenges now than ever before. Traditional disaster management approaches are no longer sufficient to address the increased pressures facing urban areas. A shift from disaster risk reduction to disaster resilience building strategies is required to provide sustainable disaster management. Disaster resilience is the ability of a system (like a city) to respond and recover from a disaster and includes conditions that allow the system (city) to “bounce back”. In order to address some of the shortcomings in existing research, a framework was developed to help quantify, compare, and visualize dynamic disaster resilience. The proposed framework combines physical, economic, engineering, health, and social impacts to determine a city’s resilience in time and space. A tool like the one presented in this dissertation can assist emergency planners and decision makers in preparing for, and responding to, disaster situations. A computerized tool was developed to employ the framework. This tool uses local data related to buildings, people, cell phone towers, power distribution, and the economy to simulate how various city systems behave before, during, and after a flood event. The tool outputs graphs and maps to show the changes in both time and space. The results demonstrate the value of a quantitative resilience assessment approach to disaster management. The results for a case study in Metro Vancouver, BC, Canada shows that emergency funding, provision of mobile hospital services, and managed retreat can all help increase disaster resilience. The framework used to develop the tool could ultimately provide decision support to disaster management professionals, policy makers, and urban planners. iv Co-Authorship Statement This Monograph format thesis dissertation was written in its entirety by the author. The author also produced all of the figures shown herein except where indicated by citation. Although this is an original dissertation, the content contained herein was based on work completed by the author in collaboration with others as follows: Paper 1 The non-threshold dynamic resilience definition (presented in Chapter 3, sections 3.2.1 and 3.2.2) was published in a paper by the author in collaboration with Professor S.P. Simonovic in the following article: Simonovic, S.P. and Peck, A. (2013). Dynamic Resilience to Climate Change Caused Natural Disasters in Coastal Megacities – Quantification Framework. British Journal of Environment and Climate Change, 3(3): 378-401. The contributions of Simonovic and Peck were about 60% and 40%, respectively. The conceptual development of the space-time dynamic resilience measure (STDRM) and production of the manuscript was primarily led by S.P. Simonovic. The discussion on the implementation of the STDRM through the Resilience Simulator Tool was primarily led by A. Peck. A. Peck also contributed to the production of the manuscript, primarily in the description of system impacts and production of the manuscript figures and provided review and feedback on the manuscript submission. Paper 2 A tight-coupling approach was used in this dissertation (discussed in Chapter 4, section 4.2.4) to provide the required capacity for handling bidirectional and synchronized interactions of operations between system dynamics (SD) and Geographic Information System (GIS). This approach was initially illustrated in a fictitious spatial system dynamics (SSD) environment called Daisyworld, published by the author in collaboration with C. Neuwirth and S.P. Simonovic in the following article: v Neuwirth, C., Peck, A. and Simonovic, S.P. (2015). Modeling Structural Change in Spatial System Dynamics: A Daisyworld Example. Environmental Modelling & Software, 65:30-40. The contributions of Neuwirth and Peck were equal; both contributed to the conceptual development of SSD, implementation of SSD (Python programming), and production of the manuscript. S.P. Simonovic initiated the collaboration, offered guidance, and provided review and feedback on the manuscript. Paper 3 In addition, the author was involved in collaborative efforts pertaining to the implementation of spatio-temporal simulation models in the following article: Neuwirth, C., Hofer, B. and Peck, A. (2015). Spatiotemporal Processes and their Implementation in Spatial System Dynamics Models. Journal of Spatial Science, 12pp. Doi: 10.1080/14498596.2015.997316. In this work, the contributions of Neuwirth and Hofer were much more significant than the contribution of Peck (10%). Neuwirth and Hofer led the discussion and categorization of SSD process models, produced a hypothetical model of flow processes and landscape evolution, and led the production of the manuscript. A.Peck’s primary contributions consisted of conceptual SSD simulation modelling (through previous work of Neuwirth, Peck, and Simonovic (2015)); implementation assistance (through Vensim-Python programming) and the review, feedback, and editing of the final manuscript submission. This article is referenced in this dissertation, forming part of the literature review of SSD processes (Chapter 4, section 4.2.4), but is otherwise not explicitly used in this dissertation. vi Acknowledgments You’ll have to bear with me, as over the course of my many years at Western I have come into contact with many magnificent and supportive people; some of whom I’d like to mention here. First, I’d like to thank all of the staff, faculty, and students whom I’ve had the pleasure of meeting for all of their support both in my research and teaching endeavors. Over the years I’ve been fortunate to be a part of Western community in the capacity of an undergraduate student, graduate student, TA, and instructor; all experiences I have immensely enjoyed and will never