JAPAN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AGENCY (JICA) VIETNAM RAILWAYS (VR) STUDY FOR THE FORMULATION OF HIGH SPEED RAILWAY PROJECTS ON HANOI – VINH AND HO CHI MINH – NHA TRANG SECTION FINAL REPORT VOLUME I DEVELOPMENT OF NORTH-SOUTH RAILWAYS June 2013 ALMEC CORPORATION JAPAN INTERNATIONAL CONSULTANTS FOR TRANSPORTATION CO., LTD. ORIENTAL CONSULTANTS CO., LTD. NIPPON KOEI CO., LTD. JAPAN TRANSPORTATION CONSULTANTS, INC. Exchange rate used in the Report USD 1 = JPY 78 = VND 21,000 (Based on rate on November 2011) PREFACE In response to the request from the Government of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam, the Government of Japan decided to conduct the Study for the Formulation of High Speed Railway Projects on Hanoi – Vinh and Ho Chi Minh – Nha Trang Section and entrusted the program to the Japan International cooperation Agency (JICA). JICA dispatched a team to Vietnam between April 2011 and June 2013, which was headed by Mr. IWATA Shizuo of ALMEC Corporation and consisted of ALMEC Corporation, Japan International Consultants for Transportation Co., Ltd., Oriental Consultants Co., Ltd., Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. and Japan Transportation Consultants, Inc. In the cooperation with the Vietnamese Counterpart Team including the Ministry of Transport and Vietnam Railways, the JICA Study Team conducted the study which includes traffic demand analysis, natural and socio-economic conditions, alignment planning, consideration of various options including the upgrading of existing railway, technical standards for high speed railway, implementation schedule and institutions, and human resource development. It also held a series of discussions with the relevant officials of the Government of Vietnam. Upon returning to Japan, the Team duly finalized the study and delivered this report in June 2013. Reflecting on the history of railway development in Japan, it is noted that Japan has indeed a great deal of experience in the planning, construction, operation, etc., and it is deemed that such experiences will greatly contribute to the railway development in Vietnam. JICA is willing to provide further cooperation to Vietnam to achieve sustainable development of railway sector and to enhance friendly relationship between the two countries. It is hoped that this report will contribute to the sustainable development of transport system in Vietnam and to the enhancement of friendly relations between the two countries. Finally, I wish to express my sincere appreciation to the officials of the Government of Vietnam for their close cooperation. June 2013 Kazuki Miura Director, Economic Infrastructure Department Japan International Cooperation Agency TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background and Objectives of the Study ............................................................................. 1-1 1.2 Study Implementation ........................................................................................................... 1-3 1.3 Structure of the Final Report ................................................................................................ 1-9 2 REVIEW OF CURRENT SITUAION AND FUTURE TRANSPORTATION DEVELOPMENT DIRECTION FOR NORTH – SOUTH CORRIDOR 2.1 Natural Conditions ............................................................................................................... 2-1 2.2 Socio-economic Conditions .................................................................................................. 2-6 2.3 Current Transportation Network and Services along North-South Corridor ........................ 2-12 2.4 Overall Traffic Demand and Characteristics ....................................................................... 2-21 2.5 Current Government Policy and Plan ................................................................................. 2-33 3 CONSTRAINTS AND OPPORTUNITIES OF THE EXISTING NORTH-SOUTH RAILWAY LINE 3.1 Existing Conditions of the North-South Railway ................................................................... 3-1 3.2 Main Bottlenecks in Existing Railway ................................................................................... 3-7 3.3 Opportunities and Constraints to Improvement of Existing Line ......................................... 3-14 3.4 Alternative Improvements for the North-South Railway Line .............................................. 3-22 4 ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO FOR NORTH-SOUTH RAILWAY DEVELOPMENT 4.1 Review of Alternative Scenarios discussed in National Assembly ........................................ 4-1 4.2 Traffic Demand Analysis ....................................................................................................... 4-5 4.3 Preliminary Economic Evaluation of North-South Railway Development ........................... 4-26 5 ANALYSIS AND SELECTION OF HSR SYSTEM AND TECHNOLOGY 5.1 Review of High-Speed Railway Technologies in the World .................................................. 5-1 5.2 Comparison of High-Speed Railway Technologies and Subsystem ................................... 5-29 5.3 Selection of Appropriate System Technologies for HSR in Vietnam ................................... 5-87 6 IMPLEMENTATION DIRECTIONS AND KEY AREAS FOR CONSIDERATIONS 6.1 Proposed Overall Roadmap for HSR Development ............................................................. 6-1 6.2 HSR Initial Section ............................................................................................................... 6-4 6.3 Operation and Management Organization ......................................................................... 6-13 6.4 Human Resource Development ......................................................................................... 6-39 6.5 Funding Options ................................................................................................................. 6-59 6.6 Necessary Institutions and Legislation for Introducing High Speed Railway ...................... 6-71 6.7 The Nature of Railway Industry and How to Raise Supporting Industries .......................... 6-78 6.8 Environmental and Social Considerations .......................................................................... 6-79 7 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS iii APPENDIX APPENDIX 5A Life Cycle for Each Track Structure APPENDIX 5B Railway Technical Research Institute (RTRI) Report APPENDIX 6A Existing Law and Standard Concerning to Railway Construction APPENDIX 6B Institutional Framework for Construction and Operation of Japan’s HSR APPENDIX 6C Current Institutional Situation of Vietnam Railway Project Implementation iv LIST OF TABLES Table 1.2.1 Main Meetings held ..................................................................................................... 1-5 Table 1.2.2 List of Organizations Attended Stakeholder Meeting .................................................. 1-6 Table 1.2.3 Activities of Counterpart Study Tour ............................................................................ 1-8 Table 2.1.1 Characteristics of Climate Zones in Vietnam .............................................................. 2-2 Table 2.2.1 Historical Demographic Change in Vietnam ............................................................... 2-6 Table 2.2.2 Historical Demographic Change in Vietnam ............................................................... 2-6 Table 2.2.3 Development Indicators for Provinces along North – South Corridor ......................... 2-9 Table 2.2.4 Future Growth of Provinces ........................................................................................ 2-9 Table 2.2.5 Future Growth of Cities ............................................................................................. 2-11 Table 2.3.1 Transport Infrastructure of North-South Corridor ...................................................... 2-12 Table 2.3.2 Average Fare to Terminals ........................................................................................ 2-15 Table 2.3.3 Average Access Time to Terminal (minutes) ............................................................. 2-15 Table 2.3.4 List of Expressway Projects in the MOT Master Plan ............................................... 2-17 Table 2.3.5 Committed/On-going Projects of Aviation Sector ...................................................... 2-19 Table 2.3.6 Proposed Projects of Aviation Sector ........................................................................ 2-19 Table 2.4.1 Forecast Increase in Passenger and Freight Traffic ................................................. 2-21 Table 2.4.2 Estimated Traffic Demand along North South Corridor (Baseline Scenario) 2030 ... 2-24 Table 2.4.3 Railway Traffic Demand by Line ............................................................................... 2-25 Table 2.4.4 Major OD Pairs of Railway Passenger Traffic (Hanoi–Saigon Line) ......................... 2-26 Table 2.4.5 Cross Section Passenger Traffic Volume of Hanoi–Saigon Line .............................. 2-28 Table 2.4.6 Freight Traffic Demand by Line ................................................................................. 2-28 Table 2.4.7 Major OD Pairs of Railway Cargo Traffic .................................................................. 2-29 Table 2.4.8 Cross Sectional Cargo Traffic Volume of Hanoi–Saigon Line .................................. 2-30 Table 2.4.9 Traffic Volume at Major Airports in Vietnam .............................................................. 2-30 Table 2.4.10 Summary of the Cargo Throughput of Ports in Vietnam (2007-2010)