Class Voting and Value Orientations The fourth generation Peter Egge Langsæther Department of Political Science Faculty of Social Sciences University of Oslo May 2014 Word count: 36 883 Class Voting and Value Orientations The fourth generation © Peter Egge Langsæther 2014 Class Voting and Value Orientations: The fourth generation Peter Egge Langsæther http://www.duo.uio.no/ Trykk: Reprosentralen, Universitetet i Oslo Abstract The most important questions in the study of class voting during the last few decades have been whether, to what degree, and why class voting has been declining. Usually, a dichotomous left-right party choice variable has been utilized. This may have distorted de- alignment and realignment, as the rise of the New Left and the New Right has changed the relationship between the social classes and the political parties. In this thesis, we utilize a party family dependent variable on contemporary data instead. We first describe the class basis in 18 West-European countries for all the party families, showing that the party families normally grouped into the “Left” and “Right” categories indeed have quite different class bases. The strength of class voting also varies by party family. We then test one of the mechanisms connecting class to voting, namely the role of value orientations. This means that we see how much of the bivariate association between class and voting that disappears when controlling for these intermediate variables. What we find is compelling evidence of the need for a more nuanced party choice variable: The amount of class voting accounted for by the value orientations varies between the party families. The thesis thus i) describes the class basis of the West-European party families; ii) tests a mechanism through which class has its effects on voting; iii) proves the need for a more nuanced, “4th generation” dependent variable. Acknowledgements I am grateful to a great number of people who have made me capable of writing this thesis, whether directly or indirectly; academically or personally. Unfortunately I cannot name but a few. At the university, my supervisor Oddbjørn Knutsen stands above all else in this regard. With his excellent knowledge of cleavage voting and his constructive and thorough feedback throughout the last year, he has contributed immensely to this thesis. Thank you. Knut- Andreas Christophersen has been very helpful ever since I started on the master’s programme. He has been an excellent teacher, always caring for his students. He has also read and given me feedback on parts of this thesis, for which I am very thankful. Øivind Bratberg is a born motivator and one of the most generous people I know. His presence at the university is a resource to every student. There are also a great many students I am thankful for having met during the last years; unfortunately too many to mention here. I have learnt as much from discussions with them as I have from my studies. I want in particular to thank the Matprat gang, with whom I have eaten every lunch and dinner at the university during the last two years: Einar Tornes, Magnus Jacobsen, Rémi César Fiquet Bredesen, Magnus Gabriel Aase, Lars Sutterud, Martin Søyland, and Aleksander Eilertsen. Life at the university has been better than I could ever have dreamt of because of you. The last member of the crew, Haakon Gjerløw, must be singled out. As a friend and discussion partner through many years, he means a lot to me both academically and personally. Not least, there are many to thank outside the university. I want to thank my father, for teaching me when and how to think with my head. I want to thank my mother, for teaching me when and how to think with my heart. You both mean the world to me. So does my brother, Øystein Egge Langsæther, and my closest friends throughout the last two decades, Mads André Jordansen and Petter Melnæs. You always remind me of who I am, where I come from, and why I’m here. Thank you. All faults in this thesis are my own. Table of Contents Chapter 1: Introduction ........................................................................................................... 1 1.1 The Study of Class Voting: A Brief History ................................................................................. 2 1.2 The State of the Art: The 4th Generation ....................................................................................... 4 1.3 The Aim of the Thesis – Filling the Gaps ..................................................................................... 6 Chapter 2: Research Design .................................................................................................. 10 2.1 Data: The European Values Study 2008 ..................................................................................... 10 2.2 Variables ...................................................................................................................................... 10 2.2.1 The independent variable: Social class ................................................................................. 10 2.2.2 The dependent variable: Party choice ................................................................................... 14 2.2.3 The intermediate variables: The value orientations .............................................................. 16 2.3 Research Strategy ........................................................................................................................ 17 2.3.1 Description ........................................................................................................................... 17 2.3.2 Testing mechanisms: Multilevel logistic regression ............................................................ 21 Chapter 3: The Class Basis of the West-European Party Families ................................... 26 3.1 The Left Socialist Parties............................................................................................................. 27 3.1.1 Hypotheses ............................................................................................................................ 27 3.1.2 The Class Basis of the Socialist Left in Western Europe ...................................................... 29 3.2 The Green Parties ........................................................................................................................ 31 3.2.1 Hypotheses ............................................................................................................................ 31 3.2.2 The Class Basis of Green Parties in Western Europe .......................................................... 32 3.3 The Social Democratic Parties .................................................................................................... 33 3.3.1 Hypotheses ............................................................................................................................ 33 3.3.2 The Class Basis of the Social Democratic Parties in Western Europe ................................ 35 3.4 The Agrarian Parties .................................................................................................................... 37 3.4.1 Hypotheses ............................................................................................................................ 37 3.4.2 The Class Basis of the Agrarian Parties .............................................................................. 38 3.5 The Liberal Parties ...................................................................................................................... 39 3.5.1 Hypotheses ............................................................................................................................ 39 3.5.2 The Class Basis of the Liberal Parties in Western Europe .................................................. 40 3.6 The Christian Democratic Parties ................................................................................................ 41 3.6.1 Hypotheses ............................................................................................................................ 41 3.6.2 The Class Basis of Christian Democratic parties ................................................................ 42 3.7 The Conservative parties ............................................................................................................. 43 3.7.1 Hypotheses ............................................................................................................................ 43 3.7.2 The Class Basis of Conservative Parties .............................................................................. 44 3.8 The Radical Right Parties ............................................................................................................ 45 3.8.1 Hypotheses ............................................................................................................................ 45 3.8.2 The Class Basis of the Radical Right in Western Europe ..................................................... 47 3.9 Conclusion: How strong is the class basis? ................................................................................. 48 Chapter 4: Class Voting and Value Orientations ................................................................ 52 4.1 Value orientations and Left Socialist class voting....................................................................... 53 4.2 Value orientations and Green class voting .................................................................................