WEST ASIA IN TRANSITION Volume II WEST ASIA IN TRANSITION Volume II Editor Sanjay Singh A joint publication of DELHI POLICY GROUP INSTITUTE FOR DEFENCE STUDIES & ANALYSES NEW DELHI PENTAGON PRESS West Asia in Transition Sanjay Singh (Ed.) First Published in 2018 Copyright © Delhi Policy Group, New Delhi and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi ISBN 978-93-86618-17-7 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without first obtaining written permission of the copyright owner. Disclaimer: The views expressed in this book are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Delhi Policy Group and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, or the Government of India. Published by PENTAGON PRESS 206, Peacock Lane, Shahpur Jat New Delhi-110049 Phones: 011-64706243, 26491568 Telefax: 011-26490600 email: [email protected] website: www.pentagonpress.in In association with Delhi Policy Group Core 5A, Ist Floor, India Habitat Centre, Lodhi Road New Delhi - 110003 Phone: +91-11-41504646 / 24649572 Website: www.delhipolicygroup.com and Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses No. 1, Development Enclave, New Delhi-110010 Phone: +91-11-26717983 Website: www.idsa.in Printed at Avantika Printers Private Limited. Contents Preface ix Abbreviations and Acronyms xi Acknowledgements and Disclaimer xv Introduction 1 Sanjay Singh PART 1: WEST ASIA IN TRANSITION 1. Introduction 9 Talmiz Ahmad 2. Global Jihad by Al-Qaida and the Islamic State 16 Md. Muddassir Quamar 3. The Changing Energy Scenario: Geopolitical Implications for West Asia 35 Sameena Hameed PART 2: SAUDI ARABIA 4. Saudi Arabia: Understanding Evolving Internal and External Dynamics 55 Meena Singh Roy 5. Saudi Arabia and the Region 71 Neha Kohli 6. Wahhabism and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: An Evolving Symbiosis 89 Adil Rasheed vi West Asia in Transition PART 3: YEMEN 7. Yemen: An Introduction 109 Ranjit Gupta 8. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula 113 Dipanwita Chakravortty 9. The Yemen Conflict: Domestic and Regional Dynamics 130 Ashiya Parveen PART 4: IRAN 10. Iran and the Region: An Introduction 151 Javed Ahmad Khan and Sanjay Singh 11. The Concept of Wilayat al-Faqih: 37 Years after the Iranian Revolution 154 Shafat Yousuf 12. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and Its Aftermath 174 S. Samuel C. Rajiv 13. Iran and the Region: Changing Dynamics and New Challenges 193 P.R. Kumaraswamy and Md. Muddassir Quamar PART 5: ISRAEL 14. Israel and India: An Introduction 210 P.R. Kumaraswamy 15. The Shaping of Israel-US Relations 212 Moinuddin Ahmad 16. India-Israel Relations: The Influence of Third Parties 233 Manjari Singh PART 6: EGYPT 17. Al-Sisi’s Egypt: An Introduction 251 Sudhir Vyas 18. The Increasing Control of the Armed Forces: The Deteriorating Security Situation in Egypt 255 Rajeev Agarwal 19. State-Society Ties in Egypt: Recent Developments 274 Tanzoom Ahmed Contents vii PART 7: SYRIA-IRAQ 20. The Civil War in Syria: A Regional Battleground— An Introduction 295 V.P. Haran 21. The Civil War in Syria: A Regional Battleground 298 Tsupokyemla 22. Islamic State in Iraq and Syria: Causes and Consequences— An Introduction 317 A.R. Ghanashyam 23. The Islamic State: Origins, Evolution and Consequences 319 Alvite Singh Ningthoujam The Mentors 339 The Contributors 342 Index 346 DELHI POLICY GROUP Preface The ‘Arab Spring’ of 2011 brought in its wake widespread instability characterized by mass protests, civil wars, widening sectarian schisms, the rise of violent extremism and deep uncertainty about the future of West Asia. The region, with which India shares civilisation ties, has a special significance for India. It is a critical strategic and economic partner and hosts over 8 million Indians. Any instability in the region also impacts the global economy and geopolitics. In order to understand the ongoing political, social and economic transformations underway in West Asia, the Delhi Policy Group (DPG) launched a project in 2015 to study emerging trends and provide inputs to support a proactive and comprehensive Indian engagement with West Asia. The project was also designed to provide an opportunity to young Indian scholars to engage in an exchange of ideas and contribute to the national discourse through their academic research. One of the key objectives of this project is to create a network of young Indian scholars analysing different aspects of West Asia through research covering Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Iran, Egypt, Israel, Iraq and Syria. The project has benefited greatly from the mentoring of Senior Diplomats and Academicians who have guided the young researchers and have also provided an introduction to each section of this volume. The research papers authored by the contributors were subjected to peer review at a three day meeting organised by the DPG in conjunction with the IDSA on December 14-15-16, 2016. DPG acknowledges the x West Asia in Transition valuable partnership extended by IDSA in bringing out this joint publication. New Delhi Ambassador Hemant Krishan Singh June 5, 2017 Director General, DPG Delhi Policy Group, Core 5-A, First Floor, India Habitat Centre, Lodhi Road, New Delhi – 110 003 Tel: (011)48202100, Website: www.delhipolicygroup.org, E-mail: [email protected] Abbreviations and Acronyms ADNOC Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) AFLPA Armed Forces Land Projects Agency AIPAC American Israel Public Affairs Committee AKP The Justice and Development Party AQAP Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula AQM Al-Qaeda in the Maghreb AQY Al-Qaeda in Yemen ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ATS Anti-Terrorist Squad BBC The British Broadcasting Corporation CBI Central Bank of Iran CCIT Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism CIA Central Intelligence Agency CSIS Centre for Strategic and International Studies E and P Exploration and Production EAF Egyptian Armed forces EIA Energy Information Administration EPC Engineering, Procurement, and Construction EU European Union EU3 France Britain And Germany FFI Foreign Financial Institutions FMF Foreign Military Financing FMS Foreign Military Sales xii West Asia in Transition FSA The Free Syrian Army GCC Gulf Co-operation Council IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency IED Improvised Explosive Device ILSA Iran Libya Sanctions Act IMAFT Islamic Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism IPC Iran Petroleum Contracts IRGC-QF Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps-Quds Force IS Islamic State ISA Iran Sanctions Act ISI Islamic State Iraq ISIL Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant ISIS Islamic State of Iraq and Syria ISO Imamia Students Organization JASTA Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act JCPOA Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action JeM Jaish-e-Mohammed KRG Kurdistan Regional Government LeT Lashkar-e-Taiba LNG Liquefied natural gas MHA Ministry of Home Affairs MP Military Production NCRI National Coalition of Resistance of Iran NDP National Democratic Party NIA National Intelligence Agency NPC National Petrochemical Company NSPO National Service Projects Organization OAPEC Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries OIC Organization of Islamic Cooperation OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries P5+1 UN Security Council’s five permanent members + European Union Abbreviations and Acronyms xiii PKK Partiya Karkerên Kurdistanê (Kurdistan Workers’ Party) PLO Palestinian Liberation Organization POGIDC Persia Oil and Gas Industry Development Company PYD Partiya Yekîtiya Demokratý PYG Yekîneyên Parastina Gel QME Qualitative Military Edge RDS The Royal Dutch Shell RF Restricted funds SCAF The Supreme Council of Armed Forces SCIRI The Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq SDF The Syrian Democratic Forces SDN Specially Designated Nationals SNC The Syrian National Council UAE United Arab Emirates UN United Nations UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization UNSCOP United Nations Special Commission on Palestine US United States USA United States America USSR Union of Soviet Socialist Republics WANA West Asia and North America YPG The Kurdish People’s Protection Units Acknowledgements and Disclaimer This project and publication have been undertaken by the Delhi Policy Group (DPG) with the support of Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA). Founded in 1994, the Delhi Policy Group is among India’s oldest independent think tanks with its primary focus on strategic issues of critical national interest. Over the past decades, it has established itself in both domestic and international circles, particularly in the areas of peace and conflict and national security. In keeping with the growing dynamism of India’s foreign and security policy, the DPG has expanded its focus areas to include India’s broader regional and global role and the strategic partnerships that advance India’s rise as a leading power. To support that goal, the DPG undertakes research and organises conferences and interactions across a wide canvas including strategic and geo-political issues, geo-economic issues and defence and security issues. IDSA is a non-partisan, autonomous body, dedicated to objective research and policy relevant studies on all aspects of defence and security. Its mission is to promote national and international security through the generation and dissemination of knowledge on defence and security- related issues. DPG and IDSA acknowledge the contribution of Dr. Preeti Singh, who copy-edited the volume, as well as the efforts of the DPG research associates, Ms. Tanzoom Ahmed and Ms. Shulagna Pal, in compiling this volume. DPG and IDSA do not take specific policy positions; accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). Introduction Sanjay Singh The West Asian region is in the process of profound transformation. In the wake of the ‘Arab Spring’ of 2010, the region has been marked by political instability arising from the forceful articulation of popular aspirations, especially by its youth, violent civil strife in some countries, widening sectarian schisms, and the rise of extremist forces in others.