Midlands Connect Midlands Connect Steering DRAFT DOCUMENT V2.0 Group Technical Report Our ref: 22657101 June 2014 Client ref: Midlands Connect Midlands Connect Steering DRAFT DOCUMENT V2.0 Group Technical Report Our ref: 22657101 June 2014 Client ref: Prepared by: Prepared for: Steer Davies Gleave Midlands Connect Steering Group 28-32 Upper Ground London SE1 9PD +44 (0)20 7910 5000 www.steerdaviesgleave.com Contents Preface ........................................................................................................................................ 2 1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 3 Background ................................................................................................................................... 3 Transport connectivity and the economy ..................................................................................... 4 This study ...................................................................................................................................... 5 The study area .............................................................................................................................. 5 2 Economic evidence base ..................................................................................................... 7 Building the economic evidence base .......................................................................................... 7 Demography and housing ............................................................................................................. 8 Employment and jobs creation ..................................................................................................... 9 Education and skills .................................................................................................................... 21 Inward Investment ...................................................................................................................... 24 Exports ........................................................................................................................................ 26 3 Midlands connectivity today ............................................................................................. 28 Transport demand growth and congestion ................................................................................ 28 Passenger transport connectivity ............................................................................................... 30 Freight transport connectivity .................................................................................................... 34 Air connectivity ........................................................................................................................... 35 4 Growth outlook ................................................................................................................ 39 Underlying growth projections ................................................................................................... 40 Planning for future growth ......................................................................................................... 43 Strategic transport priorities ...................................................................................................... 61 5 Setting conditional outputs ............................................................................................... 64 The framework for conditional outputs ..................................................................................... 64 Objectives and focus areas ......................................................................................................... 65 Conditional outputs .................................................................................................................... 66 Data analysis ............................................................................................................................... 69 Evidence review .......................................................................................................................... 69 Growth outlook........................................................................................................................... 70 Figures Figure 1.1: Map of the Midlands Connect study area .................................................................. 6 Figure 2.1: Evidence base for Midlands Connect ......................................................................... 7 Figure 2.2: Example of conceptual framework for transport investment .................................... 8 Figure 2.3: Youngest and eldest populations - West Midlands .................................................... 9 Figure 2.4: Unemployment map by local authority .................................................................... 10 Figure 2.5: Index of Multiple Deprivation map by local authority ............................................. 11 Figure 2.6: Share of employees in city centres ........................................................................... 13 Figure 2.7: Share of jobs in the manufacturing sector by LEP .................................................... 14 Figure 2.8: Employees in the service sector by metropolitan area ............................................ 16 June 2014 Figure 2.9: Share of jobs in the emerging sectors by LEP ........................................................... 17 Figure 2.10: Inflow and outflow of emerging workers ............................................................... 19 Figure 2.11: Productivity differentials to national average ........................................................ 20 Figure 2.12: Business start-up rate ............................................................................................. 22 Figure 2.13: The relationship between skills and innovation ..................................................... 23 Figure 2.14: Change in FDI 2007-2012, by region ....................................................................... 24 Figure 2.15: The size of local economies (GVA, 2013) ................................................................ 25 Figure 3.1: Roads in the West Midlands in the top 10% of UK slowest journeys ....................... 28 Figure 3.2: Passenger capacity at rail stations in Birmingham city centre ................................. 29 Figure 3.3: Population density within a 3 km catchment radius of railway stations .................. 31 Figure 3.4: Relationship between income growth and the propensity to commute in 2010 in Great Britain ............................................................................................................................... 32 Figure 3.5: Network performance 2012/13 – Total travel time above free-flow travel time .... 33 Figure 3.6: Road-based journey times from Birmingham .......................................................... 34 Figure 3.7: Destination of freight originating in the West Midlands .......................................... 34 Figure 3.8: Passenger travelling to Birmingham Airport – mode share 2005-2013 ................... 36 Figure 3.9: Birmingham Airport Catchment Area by passenger numbers (2013) ...................... 36 Figure 4.1: Population growth in the Midlands .......................................................................... 40 Figure 4.2: GVA growth forecast between 2010 and 2020 ........................................................ 41 Figure 4.3: GVA growth forecast by sector between 2010 and 2020......................................... 41 Figure 4.4: Employment growth forecast by sector between 2010 and 2020 ........................... 42 Figure 4.5: JSA claimant count in the West Midlands – projections vs. actual .......................... 42 Figure 4.6: Main growth sectors for each development site ..................................................... 44 Figure 4.7: Manufacturing sector development sites ................................................................ 49 Figure 4.8: Service sector development sites ............................................................................. 50 Figure 4.9: Emerging sector development sites ......................................................................... 51 Figure 4.10: Midlands growth outlook: HS2 and key development sites ................................... 61 Tables Table 2.1: Urban areas with the highest relative density of jobs by sector ............................... 16 Table 2.2: Universities in the Midlands ...................................................................................... 21 Table 2.3: Share of population with higher education qualifications ........................................ 23 Table 3.1: Generalised journey times between regional cities (minutes) .................................. 30 Table 3.2: Car journey times between UK cities (minutes) ........................................................ 32 Table 3.3: UK airports ranked by cargo transported (2012) ....................................................... 37 Table 4.1: Economic targets by LEPs .......................................................................................... 43 Table 4.2: Principal development sites by Local Enterprise Partnership ................................... 45 Table 4.3: Initiatives to boost business growth and skills .......................................................... 52 Table