SUMMER 2009 Volume 21, No. 2 In this issue: EDITORIAL BELARUS ABROAD Moving Away from Russia — p. 2 CBS International Summer School — p. 21 FEATURES Exhibition of Belarusian Posters — p. 21 Declaration of the European Council Congress of New Diaspora — p. 22 on the Eastern Partnership — p. 3 Belarusian Opposition on the Europe’s Last Dictatorship — p. 4 Eastern Partnership — p. 22 Belarus Boycotts CSTO Summit — p. 5 Belarus Days in Prague — p. 23 Promoting Democracy and Human THOUGHTS and OBSERVATIONS Rights in Belarus — p. 6 A Divided Europe Reaches Out...— p. 24 Eleven Prisoners of Conscience — p. 6 New ’Pragmatism’ Backed — p. 24 White House Statement — p. 7 From Political Front Lines to ECONOMY Army Drudgery — p. 26 Zombie Economy — p. 8 Protests Against Nuclear Plant — p. 28 Lukashenka Says He’s Ready to Caucasus Impacts Russia-Belarus Consider Reforms — p. 10 Relations — p. 29 Russia Struggles to Maintain BELARUS’ FORUM Alliance with Belarus — p. 29 March 25 in Minsk — p. 11 Declaration of Belarusian MEDIA WATCH Democratic NGOs .. — p. 12 Press Review Role of a Government in Exile — p. 13 ’Milk War’ Strains Russia - Belarus Ties — p. 30 Opposition Delivers Its Roadmap — p. 15 An (Un)wanted Guest — p. 31 Europe Betrays its Mission in Prague — p. 31 SPORTS — p. 16 LETTERS — p. 32 NEWS BRIEFS — p. 17 Such a behavior surely warranted a reward from the West, and it was not long in coming. The EDITORIAL International Monetary Fund said in June that it will lend an additional $1 billion to Belarus, bringing its total loan to $3.4 billion. Moving Away From Russia Where do these developments leave the Belarusian By Jan Maksymiuk opposition, whose hopes for change in Belarus Two important developments took place in Belarusian were during many years anchored in the conviction politics within the space of several recent weeks. that the only efficient way for the West to deal with First, on May 7 Belarus signed a document on Lukashenka was to isolate him? joining the Eastern Partnership initiative — a peculiar There is no simple or brief answer to this question. "waiting room" for six post-Soviet countries that It is evident that in his domestic policies, whether might aspire to full-fledged EU membership in some economic or social, Lukashenka is not going to indefinite future. importantly diminish his grip over the country Second, on June 14 Belarus refused to sign a or give a significant role in the public life for his document on creating the so-called Collective Rapid- opponents. Response Forces — a Eurasian answer to the seven- But it is also evident that, at least for Brussels, the nation Collective Security Treaty Organization of isolation of Lukashenka is already a thing of the past. NATO. Therefore, it would be advisable for the opposition to Both developments may seem to be more of a make some conclusions from this less-than-expected symbolic than a practical significance. The Eastern turnaround of Lukashenka's political fortune. Partnership does not offer any substantial financial or The first prominent oppositionist in Belarus to economic incentives to the post-Soviet signatories. The make such conclusions was Alyaksandr Milinkevich, Collective Rapid-Response Forces do not offer any who has started to campaign for Belarus' greater substantial counterbalance or pose any substantial engagement with the European Union, even at the threat to NATO forces in Europe. But in making expense of some legitimization of the autocratic his decisions on both issues, Belarusian President regime in the international arena. Alyaksandr Lukashenka has proven in practice that integration with Russia is not the only possible or the Will the others follow? Most likely, veterans of only desirable option for his country. These decisions the opposition -- for example, Barshcheuski's and may, in the long run, mark a turning point in Belarus's Paznyak's wings of the Belarusian Popular Front -- foreign policy. won't be eager to make such a step. Because such a step would mean losing their credibility and support In making his recent advances to Europe, they still have in society. Lukashenka had to swallow his autocratic ego. And he did that. Brussels invited Belarus to the Eastern But younger opposition activists are more likely Partnership but, at the same time, unambiguously to side with Milinkevich's and his pragmatic political suggested that it would be deeply embarrassed if vision. Lukashenka appeared at the May 7 summit in Prague This vision implicitly acknowledges that the in person. Mercifully, and prudently, Lukashenka opposition is currently too weak to change the took the hint. He sent a deputy prime minister to political regime in the country. But this vision also Prague to sign the Eastern Partnership declaration. presumes that the opposition is sufficiently potent Lukashenka also had to withstand the Kremlin's to contribute to the change that is currently taking subdued dissatisfaction with the Eastern Partnership shape in Belarus. Belarus has manifestly begun to before the Prague summit and the Kremlin's move further away from Russia. It would be advisable untamed ire after the summit. He did not recognize for the opposition to help accelerate this movement, the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia not to hamper it. before the summit. And he made an even more unprecedented step to spurn the Collective Security DID YOU RENEW Treaty Organization after the Kremlin put economic pressure on Belarus by embargoing Belarusian YOUR SUBSCRIPTION? dairy products and withholding a $500 million loan installment. Summer 2009 BELARUSIAN REVIEW From the Publisher FEATURES Our publication was complimented recently by a long time reader who is an authority in US international relations. Declaration of the European He views Belarusian Review as the top resource for anyone wanting to learn about the current situation in Belarus, since Council on the Eastern Partnership it provides both the important news and varied analysis. ————————————— It is in large part due to the generosity of our subscribers 1. Promoting stability, good governance and economic and particularly to those who provide larger contributions development in its Eastern neighbourhood is of strategic that we continue to publish. Many of the names you’ll rec- importance for the European Union. The EU therefore ognize from the previous years. The following have been has a strong interest in developing an increasingly close especially generous so far this year: relationship with its Eastern partners, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Anatol Lukjanczuk, Alice Kipel, George and Lorraine Belarus, Georgia, the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine. Kipel, Alla Orsa Romano, Peter Kasaty, Nicolas Sniezko, The European Union's proposal for an ambitious Eastern Karnella Najdziuk, Thomas Bird, Maria Kiehn, Anatol Partnership to be established with these countries serves Sankovitch, John Shybut, Olga Wilson, Halina Hayda. this objective. In order to inform and educate about Belarus a wide circle The Eastern Partnership will bring about a significant of government officials and political leaders we appreciate strengthening of EU policy with regard to its Eastern the annual contribution received from BNR Rada. partners by seeking to create the necessary conditions for political association and further economic integration between the European Union and its Eastern partners Quotes of Quarter through the development of a specific Eastern dimension of the European Neighbourhood Policy. To achieve this, President Lukashenka had on June 5 an interview with the Eastern Partnership seeks to support political and correspondents of Russian papers and magazines. It has been socio-economic reforms, facilitating approximation and published in Belarus’ official press, but has not been printed in convergence towards the European Union. In the same vein, Russia. Selected excerpts from the interview follow: the Eastern Partnership will help to build trust and develop closer ties among the six Eastern partners themselves. On marketing: “Today’s Russia has in fact closed the market for 2. Work under the Eastern Partnership will go ahead Belarusian goods” without prejudice to individual participating countries' “... Why have you closed your market for our tractors… aspirations for their future relationship with the why have you done that? Who needs such a “union European Union. The Eastern Partnership will be governed state”? by the principles of joint ownership, differentiation and conditionality. Shared values including democracy, the On Russian protectionism: rule of law, and respect for human rights will be at its core, “I addressed our government and said: “If you won’t sell as well as the principles of market economy, sustainable sugar, you will lose your job. We found other markets and development and good governance. Increased European sold this sugar” Union engagement will be in line with the main goals of the Eastern Partnership, depending on the progress On talks with Moscow: made by individual partners. Increased financial support The President disclosed some details of recent talks in in line with the Commission's proposal of €600m for the Moscow. He referred to Belarus’ Prime Minister Sidorski period to 2013 will respect the resources available under who quoted an unnamed Russian governor: “Putin said that the multiannual Financial Framework, including adequate if we (the Russian region) would buy anything Belarusian, margins. I’ll bite your head off”. 3. There will be effective complementarity between the On Caucasian conflicts: Eastern Partnership and existing regional initiatives “… Do you want one more Chechnya here? I do not in the EU's neighbourhood, in particular the Black Sea want it”. Synergy. The European Council underlines the EU's commitment to strengthen the Black Sea Synergy and to On shielding Moscow: support its implementation, noting that its focus is on “Do you believe that 10 million people (Belarusians) who regional cooperation in the Black Sea region, whereas the are now forming a shield in front of Moscow should do it for Eastern Partnership focuses on approximation and will free? You have pumped out 10 billion dollars from Belarus strengthen the links of partner countries with the EU.