Global, Regional, and Local Dynamics in the Yemen Crisis Edited by Stephen W. Day · Noel Brehony Global, Regional, and Local Dynamics in the Yemen Crisis Stephen W. Day • Noel Brehony Editors Global, Regional, and Local Dynamics in the Yemen Crisis Editors Stephen W. Day Noel Brehony Department of International Affairs Menas Associates Rollins College - Holt School London, UK Winter Park, FL, USA ISBN 978-3-030-35577-7 ISBN 978-3-030-35578-4 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-35578-4 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the pub- lisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institu- tional affiliations. This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG. The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland FOREWORD About a year or so into the current Yemen war there was the requisite academic panel to discuss the fighting, its roots, and possible outcome. The event was entitled “Yemen: The Forgotten War.” It was not forgot- ten—you forget that which you once knew. It was an unknown war, an ignored war, and possibly even an irrelevant war to all but the immediate belligerents. In part, it was a function of bad timing—the US presidential campaign sucked all the oxygen out of America’s media, the UK was embroiled in the Brexit debate, Europe was reeling from a massive influx of refugees, and there was Syria. A certain “Arab Spring” fatigue had set in, compounded by America’s endless wars. The Yemen debacle could not compete and slipped under the waves of outside events. With time, and the persistent efforts of those who did know, who did understand, and who were able to make their voices heard, a tragedy rooted in a blunder began to garner the attention it deserved. Slowly the media began to focus on this remote corner of the Arabian peninsula, ever more slowly public opinion was awakened, and more slowly still, at least in the US, Congressional attention was being paid. The war was defined by the grotesque humanitarian collapse and put into sharp relief by the mur- der of a Saudi journalist at his consulate by agents of his government. As attention shifted to the probable role of the Saudi Crown Prince in the murder, his pursuit of war against Yemen was piled on as further proof, if more were needed, of his reckless and ruthless rule. Yemen’s fate across modern history is to be seen through the prism of other’s interests and to be a battleground for larger forces: the two Cold War superpowers squaring off via their respective client states: the v vi FOREWORD ­West-­aligned Yemen Arab Republic (North Yemen) and the sole Marxist-­ Leninist state in the Middle East, the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (South Yemen); the battle over regional dominance between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Nasser’s Egypt against the background of the North Yemeni republican revolution in the 1960s; and the curious meddling of the Saudis on the side of the remnants of Marxist South Yemen in the unified country’s brief but traumatic civil war in 1994. After 9/11, Yemen was swept up in the Global War on Terrorism as we and our allies redefined Yemen as ground zero in our efforts to defeat al-­ Qaeda in all of its manifestations. Our interest was counterterrorism; our methods were military; and our tools increasingly were drones. Our policy was to secure Yemeni acquiescence to pursue our Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) on their territory, and our attention to the deeper dynamics cor- roding the Yemeni state was increasingly sidelined. A wise Yemeni friend cautioned us about this CT-centric approach—we Yemenis share your concern about al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) dug into the hinterlands of our rugged country. While AQAP is a threat to you and your allies, Yemenis are being killed in their attacks. We support you. We do not ask that you take your focus off of AQAP; I only caution you that if you do not support our efforts at (a very Yemeni-style) governance reform and economic development, if you take your focus off of the medium- and long-term threats to our country’s survival and focus only on the immediate albeit very real security threats, then this country will not survive. You need not change your focus, but you must open your aperture. It would be too simple to blame the ultimate failure of Yemen, always fragile but always able to muddle through, on the securitization of our policy. Yet it would be naïve to deny that the shift in US policy was not a factor. My wise friend was sadly right—by focusing on the immediate and urgent we missed the important. Yemen has paid, is paying the price. So, how did this happen? Why did this happen? Who IS responsible for the failure of the state, the destruction of the country, and the misery of the people? Stephen W. Day and Noel Brehony have sought to answer these questions. This contemporary history of Yemen focuses tightly on the critical years of 2011, when the “Arab Spring” came to Yemen, through late 2019, and examines each of the multitude of players and multilayered forces within Yemen, its neighbors, and the broader interna- tional community. Each author addresses the same set of questions, but each from a particular vantage point. The Rashomon quality—the same events in a narrow time frame seen from multiple vantage points, each accurate (or convenient) but all insufficient—reveals the many truths FOREWORD vii behind the current conflict. Like Rashomon, there are remarkable similari- ties and more significant differences in emphasis, nuance, and thus effect. The very complementary and at times contradictory nature of these narratives reveals a critical facet to the story and reflects a core truth about Yemen, a truth that current and future policymakers fail to consider at their peril—Yemen is not a mosaic of static interests, personalities, or alli- ances. It is kaleidoscopic in its complexity and fluidity. Attempts to project upon this remarkable country and people templates from other conflicts, binary divisions, and distinctions, or predetermined outcomes are doomed to frustration. One final note: while remote and desperately poor, Yemen is not irrele- vant, nor is the war raging there. We ignore troubled places, irrelevant places at our peril. If we have learned anything over the past 20 years, it is that no country’s problems are beyond our concern, and no country’s conflict can be contained in time or space. Whether it is terrorism’s safe haven in Afghanistan, pandemics across West Africa, or violence within Central America, it con- cerns us all, if not now, then soon. Enlightened self-interest, if for no other reason, makes a resolution of this conflict and remediation of its roots in our interest—and that is “our” interest in the broadest sense of the word. I commend this book and the expertise and experience its authors reflect to students of this country, to students of conflict, and to students seeking to grasp the complexity of policy. Yemenia Airways once had as its somewhat inauspicious tag line “Prepare to be astounded.” This compila- tion is a snapshot in time. It starts with an unraveling and extends to a tragedy. It deserves to be read in its entirety to appreciate the complexity of forces within and beyond Yemen’s control that has brought it to this place: why this country failed, and how it has been failed by others. Perhaps then we can begin to find ways to end the carnage and work with Yemenis to rebuild a state and a country that will address the challenges that bedevil Yemen and hold back the potential of its people. Yemen is as deeply layered as its millennia-long history. It cannot and should not be reduced to simple and simplistic policy choices by others, nor denied either responsibility or agency for its future. Yemen and the Yemeni people deserve and demand more, or we all risk betrayal of those who took to Sanaa’s Change Square to create a better Yemen out of the rubble of other’s ambitions and caprice. Former US Ambassador to Yemen (1997–2001) Barbara K. Bodine Washington, DC, USA ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The editors of Global, Regional, and Local Dynamics in the Yemen Crisis would like to thank retired US Ambassador Barbara K.