SOPAC Catastrophe Insurance Pilot Study, Port Vila, Vanuatu: Developing Risk-Management Options for Disasters in the Pacific Region by G.G. Shorten, S. Goosby, K. Granger, K. Lindsay, P. Naidu, S. Oliver, K. Stewart, V. Titov, G. Walker Volume 1 of 2 Volume 1: Report Volume 2: Appendices SOPAC JOINT CONTRIBUTION REPORT 147 December, 2003 Prepared for World Bank Office, Sydney, and AusAID, Canberra, Australia Authors and Affiliations: Dr Graham G. Shorten, Environmental & Community Risk International (ECRi) Pty Ltd, Brisbane, AUSTRALIA Mr Stan Goosby, Pacific Disaster Center (PDC), Hawaii, USA Mr Ken Granger, Risk Scientist, Buderim, AUSTRALIA Mr Kevin Lindsay, Risk Management International Consulting (Riskman) Ltd, Port Vila, Vanuatu Ms Purnima Naidu, SOPAC, Suva, FIJI ISLANDS Mr Stephen Oliver, Global Environmental Modelling Systems (GEMS) Pty Ltd, Melbourne, AUSTRALIA Mr Kerry Stewart, DunlopStewart Ltd, Auckland, NEW ZEALAND Dr Vasily Titov, Consultant, Seattle, USA Dr George Walker, Aon Re Australia Ltd, Sydney, AUSTRALIA SOPAC Contents Contents ................................................................................................................................... ii Figures..................................................................................................................................... iv Tables ...................................................................................................................................... iv Acknowledgements.............................................................................................................. viii Foreword ................................................................................................................................. ix Executive Summary................................................................................................................. x Introduction.............................................................................................................................. 1 Background ..........................................................................................................................................1 Assumptions .........................................................................................................................................2 History of Project Establishment...........................................................................................................2 Work Programme .................................................................................................................................4 Elements at Risk...................................................................................................................... 7 The Pilot Area.......................................................................................................................................7 GIS Information Database ....................................................................................................................8 Pacific Cities and Related Programmes ............................................................................................................... 8 Port Vila Database .............................................................................................................................................. 10 Population and Demographics............................................................................................................12 Cultural, Social and Ownership Context .............................................................................................14 Housing and Buildings........................................................................................................................17 Infrastructure and Services.................................................................................................................18 Meteorological Hazards ........................................................................................................ 20 Cyclone Hazard ..................................................................................................................................20 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................................... 20 Regional Cyclone Database ............................................................................................................................... 21 Storm Surge and Storm Wave Hazard ...............................................................................................22 Tropical Cyclone Beni ......................................................................................................................................... 22 Extreme Event compared with TC Beni .............................................................................................................. 24 Wave Conditions................................................................................................................................................. 25 Geological Hazards ............................................................................................................... 27 Earthquake Hazard.............................................................................................................................27 General Seismicity .............................................................................................................................................. 27 Historical Events ................................................................................................................................................. 28 Palaeo-seismicity ................................................................................................................................................ 29 Seismic Microzonation ........................................................................................................................................ 32 2nd January, 2002 Port Vila Earthquake.............................................................................................................. 33 Landslide and Ground Failure Hazard................................................................................................37 Tsunami Hazard .................................................................................................................................41 Worst-Case Tsunami .......................................................................................................................................... 42 2nd January, 2002 Tsunami................................................................................................................................. 44 Results ................................................................................................................................................................ 45 Model Results vs. Observations ......................................................................................................................... 46 Source Mechanism ............................................................................................................................................. 47 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................................................ 48 Risk-Loss Analysis................................................................................................................ 49 Cyclonic Wind Risk-Loss ....................................................................................................................49 Vulnerability Model.............................................................................................................................................. 49 Classes of Building Strength............................................................................................................................... 50 Derivation of Vulnerability Curves – By Strength Class...................................................................................... 51 Topographic Wind Model .................................................................................................................................... 52 Economic Model – Asset Values ........................................................................................................................ 55 Scenario Modelling ............................................................................................................................................. 56 Model Integration - Overview .............................................................................................................................. 56 Verification – Tropical Cyclone Uma................................................................................................................... 56 ii SOPAC Joint Contribution Report JCR 147 Catastrophe Insurance Pilot Study, Port Vila, Vanuatu SOPAC Results – Damage Frequency ............................................................................................................................ 58 Storm Wave Risk-Loss .......................................................................................................................59 Wave Run-Up ..................................................................................................................................................... 59