LIST OF FUNDACIÓN ESTEYCO PUBLICATIONS PABLO ALZOLA LA ESTÉTICA DE LAS OBRAS PÚBLICAS /ESTETICA HERRI-LANETAN * THE CITIES OF THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY LUCIO DEL VALLE MEMORIA SOBRE LA SITUACIÓN, DISPOSICIÓN Y CONSTRUCCIÓN ESSAY ON THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC, TECHNOLOGICAL, ENERGY DE LOS PUENTES. 1844 * AND CLIMATE FUNDAMENTALS OF URBAN SETTLEMENTS EN TORNO A LEONARDO TORRES QUEVEDO Y EL TRANSBORDADOR DEL NIÁGARA * JULIO CANO LASSO LUIS IRASTORZA CONVERSACIONES CON UN ARQUITECTO DEL PASADO CARLOS FERNÁNDEZ CASADO * JAVIER RUI-WAMBA MARTIJA AFORISMOS ESTRUCTURALES / STRUCTURAL APHORISMS MARIO onzain LA RÍA DE BILBAO antonio FERNÁNDEZ ALBA espacios DE la NORMA. lugares DE INVENCIÓN. 1980-2000 JOSÉ luis manzanares las puertas DEL agua SEVERAL AUTHORS LAS GEOMETRÍAS DEL TREN / LES GEOMETRIES DEL TREN EUGÈNE freyssinet. FRANK guyon. javier rui-wamba Y antonio F. ALBA EUGÈNE FREYSSINET UN ingeniero revolucionario / UN INGÉNIEUR révolutionnaire MIGUEL aguiló. javier manterola. MARIO onzain. javier rui-wamba The model that has shaped economic development in a number of countries (the so-called JAVIER MANTEROLA ARMISÉN. PENSAMIENTO Y OBRA industrialised nations) since the Industrial Revolution is based on an unlimited supply of inexpensive energy from fossil fuels: oil, gas and coal. As that model appears to have reached pablo olalquiaga. ALFONSO olalquiaga OF URBAN SETTLEMENTS FUNDAMENTALS AND CLIMATE EL LIBRO DE LAS CURVAS * ENERGY TECHNOLOGICAL, THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC, ON ESSAY the end of its tether, it cannot be extrapolated to emerging countries, whose speedy growth calls on all of us to seek energy-efficient alternatives able at the same time to decarbonise JOSÉ SERNA garcía-CONDE BABILONIA (600 BCE) MASDAR CITY, ABU DHABI (2040 CE) our economies. los PUENTES DEL TREN CENTURY TWENTY-FIRST THE THE CITIES OF FRANCISCO galán soraluce FUNDACION FUNDACION la energía DE los fluídos ESTEYCO ESTEYCO Our present use of land and the buildings where we live, work and spend our leisure ANDREU ESTANY I SERRA. JAVIER RUI-WAMBA. GLORIA IRIARTE. MARIO ONZAIN time account for 50 % of the world’s energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions. The arquitectes ENTRE ENGINYERS / ARQUITECTOS ENTRE INGENIEROS FUNDACION philosophy underlying their design draws from an economic model that is longer valid. A ESTEYCO JAVIER MUÑOZ ÁLVAREZ. JOSEFINA GÓMEZ MENDOZA. JAVIER RUI-WAMBA MARTIJA new paradigm is needed, built on substantial improvements in the energy performance of, la MODERNIDAD DE CERDÁ: MÁS ALLÁ DEL “ENSANCHE” FOREWORD: JOSÉ MARÍA EZQUIAGA and the achievement of carbon neutrality in, our cities and buildings. ALGUNOS APUNTES DE INGENIERÍA Y CULTURA ARTICLES: MIGUEL GARCÍA-BARÓ · CÉSAR LANZA · JOSÉ LUIS LASO · JAVIER RUI-WAMBA, AND JOAQUÍN SÁNCHEZ IZQUIERDO Paco NAVARRO. Javier RUI-WAMBA. ALEX FERNÁNDEZ CAMPS. ORIOL ALTISENCH. This book identifies the immediate and structural factors that will condition the economies CRISTINA GARCÍA BAÑUELOS. JORDI JULIÀ. MIGUEL ÁNGEL RUI-WAMBA of industrialised and developing countries throughout this century. It also contains a series LA INGENIERÍA DE LA BICICLETA of reflections on the course that needs to be charted to attain an urban and building model SEVERAL AUTHORS in which development, which must be a priority objective, is compatible with respect for ARQUITECTURA E INFRAESTRUCTURAS the planet’s limits. * Electronic versions of the books that are out of print can be found at www.esteyco.com of the books that are versions * Electronic FUNDACIÓN ESTEYCO fundacion fundacion fundacion Menéndez Pidal, 17. 28036 Madrid. Tel. 91 3597878. Fax 91 3596172 esteyco esteyco e-mail: [email protected] – web: www.esteyco.es esteyco LUIS Irastorza For the visibility and progress of engineering and architecture Fundación Esteyco was founded in May 1991 to contribute to engineering and architectural progress in Spain. The precarious and uncertain situation in which independent engineering has been practised in the country to date has required professionals to adopt essentially survival tactics. The efforts of a growing number of those professionals, with the support of governmental bodies, has nonetheless consolidated an activity whose services are imperative to a modern and efficient society. The time has come to think about the future, trusting that it will soon be upon us. Let us foster an atmosphere where creativity can thrive, where good work is both expected and appreciated. Let us contribute to sound training in engineering, in the awareness that the value of an organisation lies in the value of its members and that in engineering, individual merit is measured in terms of expertise. Let us encourage better and more frequent inter-professional partnering, eliminating unnecessary boundaries. Let us claim a place of distinction for engineering in society, re-steering the prevalent get-the-job-done culture to a get-the-job-done right culture. Let us regard engineering as an extension of the university, where young graduates consolidate their training in years that will be decisive for their future. Let us become involved in the university and research institutes. Let us ensure the stability and survival of our organisations, and provide the means to maintain their vitality, our guarantee for the future. Let us value our independence, not as a weapon to be wielded against anyone, but essentially as an intellectual trait in people whose job is to think, inform and decide freely. Javier Rui-Wamba Martija Civil Engineer President of Fundación Esteyco THE CITIES OF THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY ESSAY ON THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC, TECHNOLOGICAL, ENERGY AND CLIMATE FUNDAMENTALS OF URBAN SETTLEMENTS LUIS IRASTORZA FOREWORD: JOSE MARÍA EZQUIAGA ARTICLES BY: MIGUEL GARCÍA-BARÓ · CÉSAR LANZA · JOSÉ LUIS LASO · JAVIER RUI-WAMBA AND JOAQUÍN SÁNCHEZ IZQUIERDO For Samyra Lamarty, my wife, for having shown me another world that has enabled me to reach a fuller understanding of my own, and Aida, Myriam and Samir, the fruit of that union. And for Miguel García-Baró, César Lanza, José Luis Laso, Javier Rui-Wamba, Joaquín Sánchez-Izquierdo and José Ángel Ubieta, many of whose ideas have enlightened the thoughts set forth in this book and whose lives have served as guideposts for mine. © 2012 Fundación ESTEYCO © 2012 Authors: Luis Irastorza, José María Ezquiaga, Miguel García-Baró, César Lanza, José Luis Laso, Javier Rui-Wamba. and Joaquín Sánchez-Izquierdo Editing and graphic design: Pilar Carrizosa English translation: Margaret Clark and Alayna Keller, coordinated by Margaret Clark Summary, Conclusions and Proposals by Traductores españoles Printed by: Grafo S.A. Printed in Spain ISBN-10: 84-933553-8-0 ISBN-13: 978-84-933553-8-8 Deposit Record No.: M-32084-2013 1st edition. November 2013 CONTENTS Luis Irastorza PREFACE 13 José María Ezquiaga A hopeful BEGINNING, foreword 19 Miguel García-Baró IN THE BEGINNING THERE was THE city (AND IN THE END THERE WILL BE THE city) 25 César Lanza THE city: WHERE ARE WE GOING? 29 José Luis Laso URBAN planning AS A SOCIAL ISSUE 33 Javier Rui-Wamba THE GENESIS OF A BOOK 39 Joaquín Sánchez-Izquierdo LUIS, A NON-stop STREAM OF IDEAS AND CONCERNS 41 Luis Irastorza THE CITIES OF THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY I. GENERAL COMMENTS 45 1. THE AIM OF THIS BOOK 46 2. Determinants OF city development 47 3. THE TIMING OF paradigm CHANGE 48 4. SOME REFLECTIONS ON THE foundations OF knowledge AND truth 50 5. Opinions AND VESTED interests 53 II. ECONOMY AND SOCIETY IN THIS DECADE: KEY FACTORS 57 1. Worldwide 57 1.1. Rise in developed country indebtedness 57 1.2. The need for budgetary consolidation in the United States 59 1.3. The fiscal stimulus-budgetary consolidation debate 60 1.4. The implications of the Fukushima accident 63 2. IN Spain 67 2.4.2. Energy balance in 2011 and forecast for 2012 174 2.1. Unsustainable private indebtedness 67 2.4.3. Energy planning 2012-2020 177 2.2. Outsized public sector 69 3. Global warming 178 2.3. Low levels of technological innovation 76 3.1. The relationship between energy demand and greenhouse 2.4. Doubts about future growth potential 80 gas emissions 179 2.5. Consolidation of the financial system 85 3.1.1. Energy and emissions worldwide 180 2.6. Budgetary consolidation 2012-2020 100 3.1.2. Energy and emissions in Spain 184 2.7. The electricity tariff deficit and financing for renewable 3.2. The 2007 IPCC report 189 energies 102 3.2.1. The physical science basis 189 2.8. Population forecasts 105 3.2.2. Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability 207 2.9. Reducing the weight of construction in the economy 107 3.2.3. Mitigation 214 3.3. The planet’s boundaries 223 III. THE MAIN VECTORS OF CHANGE IN THE 3.4. The foundations of climate change denial 226 TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY 3.4.1. Svensmark’s theory about the effect of cosmic rays on the Earth’s climate 229 1. THE advent OF A new multipolar ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL ORDER 115 3.4.2. Palaeoclimate on Earth 232 1.1. World population projections and food security 115 3.5. The cost of tackling climate change 239 1.2. The growing share of emerging and developing countries 3.6. The International Energy Agency’s 450 Scenario 244 in the world economy 119 3.7. International political agreement on climate 250 1.3. China and India 123 3.8. The impact of climate change in Spain 254 1.4. The necessary co-existence between Judaic-Hellenistic and 3.8.1. Climate forecasts for twenty-first century Spain 255 oriental cultures 128 3.8.2. Rainfall and drought in the Iberian Peninsula from the 2. Energy 132 earliest records 264 2.1. Worldwide energy prospects 132 3.8.3. Water resources under climate forecast scenarios 268 2.2. Energy technology perspectives 143 2.3. The three major issues in the future of energy 150 IV. IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGE FOR CITIES 2.3.1. Non-conventional gas 151 2.3.2.