Understanding the impacts of climate change on Understanding the impacts of climate change on fish and wildlife in North Carolina fish and wildlife in North Carolina A review of climate change science, impacts, and planning options for sensitive species and habitats Defenders of Wildlife t 1130 17th Street NW Conservation Planning Program, Defenders of Wildlife Washington D.C. 20036 Defenders of Wildlife is a national, nonprofit, membership organization dedicated to the protection of all native wild animals and plans in their natural communities. Rodger Schlickeisen, President Jamie Rappaport Clark, Executive Vice President This report was made possible with the generous support of the Doris Duke Charitable Foundation AUTHORS Amielle DeWan, Ph.D, Defenders of Wildlife Natalie Dubois, Ph.D, Defenders of Wildlife Kathleen Theoharides, Hilltown Land Trust Judith Boshoven, Defenders of Wildlife PRODUCTION Alex N. Theoharides, TheoharidesConsulting.com Allison Barra Srinivas, Defenders of Wildlife Prepared with the support of the North Carolina Wildlife Resources Commission and the NC Wildlife Action Plan Workshop Steering Committee © 2010 Defenders of Wildlife 1130 17th Street NW Washington D.C. 20036 202.682.9400 http://www.defenders.org Suggested citation: DeWan, A., N. Dubois, K. Theoharides, and J. Boshoven. 2010. Understanding the impacts of climate change on fish and wildlife in North Carolina. Defenders of Wildlife, Washington, DC. I Table of Contents 1. Understanding Climate Change and Impacts on Wildlife ..................... 1 1.1 Climate Models and Emissions Scenarios ........................................1 1.1.1 Downscaling climate models for use at the regional scale ...................... 5 1.2 Overview of Impacts of Climate Change on Species and Habitats .................... 7 1.2.1 Climate Change Impacts on Community Composition ..................... 7 1.2.2 Climate Change Impacts on Phenology and Biotic Interactions .............. 10 1.2.3 Species and Ecosystem Vulnerability ................................... 14 2. Temperature, Precipitation, and Sea Level Rise in the Southeast under Climate Change: Future Projections and Impacts on Species and Habitats ............. 23 2.1 Projected Temperature Changes in the Southeast ................................ 23 2.1.1 Understanding the Potential Impacts of Temperature Shifts on Species and Habitats ............................................... 25 2.2 Projected Precipitation Changes in the Southeast ................................ 29 2.2.1 Storms and Severe Weather Events ..................................... 32 2.2.2 Hydrology ....................................................... 33 2.2.3 Additional Considerations for Aquatic Systems ........................... 39 2.2.4 Understanding the Potential Impacts of Precipitation and Hydrologic Shifts on Species and Habitats ............................................. 40 2.3 Sea Level Rise. 41 2.3.1 Future Global Projections ........................................... 42 2.3.2 Understanding the Potential Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Species and Habitats ............................................... 42 3. Projected Impacts of Climate Change in North Carolina ..................... 53 3.1 Temperature Change Projections for North Carolina ............................. 53 3.1.1 Potential Impacts of Temperature Shifts on Species and Habitats in North Carolina ................................................... 56 3.2 Precipitation Change Projections for North Carolina ............................. 60 3.2.1 Potential Impacts of Precipitation and Hydrology Shifts on Species and Habitats in North Carolina .......................................... 63 3.3 Sea Level Rise Projections for North Carolina ................................... 65 3.3.1 Potential Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Species and Habitats in North Carolina ................................................... 69 II 4. Synergistic Threats to Species and Habitat ................................ 87 4.1 Land Use Change ......................................................... 87 4.1.1 Applying Land Cover/Land Use Data at the State and Local Scale ............. 90 4.1.2 Potential Impacts of Land Use Change on Species and Habitats .............. 99 4.2 Renewable Energy Development ............................................ 102 4.2.1 Renewable Energy Policy ........................................... 102 4.2.2 Wind Energy Development ......................................... 104 4.2.3 Biofuel Development .............................................. 104 4.3 Invasive Species .......................................................... 124 5. Conservation Planning and Adaptation Strategies for Wildlife under Climate Change ............................................... 135 5.1 The Conservation Planning Process.......................................... 135 5.2 Important Considerations in Conservation Planning for Climate Change Adaptation ....................................................... 143 5.2.1 Engaging Diverse Partners and Coordinating Across Boundaries ............. 144 5.2.2 Recognition of Appropriate Spatial and Temporal Scales ................... 144 5.2.3 Incorporating Vulnerability Assessments ............................... 144 5.2.4 Addressing Uncertainty ............................................ 145 5.3 Adaptation Strategies ..................................................... 147 5.4 Management actions for climate change adaptation ............................. 147 5.5 Building Institutional Adaptive Capacity ...................................... 151 5.6 Current Federal and State Adaptation Efforts .................................. 152 5.6.1 Federal Climate Change Efforts. .152 5.6.2 State Agency Updates to the State Wildlife Action Plans .....................156 Appendix A .......................................................... 165 Appendix B .......................................................... 174 Appendix C .......................................................... 183 Appendix D .......................................................... 196 Appendix E .......................................................... 203 III PREFACE limate change is proceeding at a rate at Adaptation is critical because we know that climate which there will be unavoidable impacts change is already happening, and that its effects on Cto humans, wildlife, and habitat. Given human and natural communities are already appar- current levels of heat-trapping greenhouse gas emis- ent in many regions across the globe. What’s more, sions, we are expected to experience substantial shifts some additional warming is unavoidable. Because in local, regional, and national climate patterns. carbon persists for a long time in the atmosphere, These shifts have the potential to disrupt natural there will be an inevitable lag between when we processes, and in some areas may cause significant reduce emissions and when we start to see the results degradation to ecosystems that provide services in the climate system and the natural world. such as clean and abundant water, protection from flooding, and sustainable natural resources of timber For fish, wildlife, and habitats, adapting to climate products or game species. change will be a long-term, iterative process, and will be particularly challenging given existing threats such Mitigation strategies, or policy and management as habitat loss and fragmentation from development, actions that reduce greenhouse gas emissions that introduction of invasive species, water pollution, contribute to global warming, are and will continue and wildlife diseases. Shifts in local climate, such to be an important part of any plan to reduce the as temperature and precipitation, may further exac- impacts of climate change. These strategies include erbate these existing threats, putting some species actions at the individual level, such as reducing your at even more risk. Thus, climate change adaptation carbon footprint by driving less often, as well as strat- might best be seen as a new and permanent element egies at a regional or national level to curb harm- of conservation planning and wildlife management, ful greenhouse gas emissions from factories or other rather than a separate activity or a one-time planning pollution sources. Despite the growing knowledge process. about and interest in climate change, greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase, exceeding even the The southeastern United States contains some of the “business as usual” trajectory that scientists warn will highest biological diversity, and some of the most lead to dire consequences. Consequently, even if the endangered ecosystems, found anywhere else in the most rigorous mitigation strategies were implement- world. The State of North Carolina contributes to the ed today at the local, regional, and national level, Southeast’s unique floral and faunal diversity, from we will continue to experience the effects of climate supporting the nation’s highest number of amphib- change for many years to come. Because of these ian species to a rich portfolio of unique ecosystems lasting effects, it will be critical for fish and wildlife such as spruce-fir and southern forested wetlands. agencies to play a significant role in developing strat- In 2005, the North Carolina Wildlife Resources egies to safeguard wildlife, fish, and their supporting Commission (NCWRC) developed the State Wild- ecosystems from the impacts of climate change. life Action Plan (NC WAP) to build on existing conservation