T2008/1 t t seri seri thesis hes thesis hes Maura Houtenbos is es is es series Maura Houtenbos Expecting the unexpected The NetherlandsThe Netherlands TRAIL TRAIL Research Research School School Delft UniversityDelft University of Technology of Technology ErasmusErasmus University University Rotterdam Rotterdam RadboudRadboud University University Nijmegen Nijmegen UniversityUniversity of Groningen of Groninge n UniversityUniversity of Twente of Twente P. O. Box 5017 P.O. Box 5017 2600 GA Delft 2600 GA Delft The Netherlands The Netherlands Telephone: +31 (0)15 27 860 46 Teledphone : +31(0)15 27 860 46 Telefax : +31 (0)15 27 843 33 Telefax : +31(0)15 27 843 33 www.rsTRAIL.nl www.rsTRAIL.nl Expecting the unexpected A study of interactive driving behaviour at intersections ISBN: 978-90-5584-095-3 Stellingen behorende bij het proefschrift “Expecting the unexpected: a study of interactive driving behaviour at intersections” Maura Houtenbos, 8 januari 2008 I. De beschikbare tijdruimte voor het afwikkelen van een interactiesituatie bepaalt voor een groot deel of men in staat is adequaat te reageren op een onverwachte gebeurtenis. II. Door het koppelen van rijsimulatoren wordt een nieuw onderzoeksveld geopend dat ons in staat stelt de nuances van interactiegedrag beter te begrijpen. III. Gezien het hoge aantal ontmoetingen in het verkeer en het lage aantal ongevallen waarin deze resulteert kan geconcludeerd worden dat de mens goed is in het veilig interacteren. IV. De sleutel tot een succesvol ondersteunend systeem voor bestuurders van een voertuig is het bepalen in welke situaties ondersteuning daadwerkelijk nodig is en wanneer bestuurders het prima alleen afkunnen. V. Men heeft vaak een onverwachte gebeurtenis nodig om zich bewust te worden van de oorspronkelijke verwachting. VI. Het blootstellen van proefpersonen aan een ervaring waarvan men weet dat de proefpersonen er onwel van kunnen worden neigt naar het onethische. VII. De sleutel tot controle is het vermogen belangrijke aspecten van de omgeving te kunnen volgen of er zelfs op te kunnen anticiperen. Daarom is elk brein, in essentie, een anticipatiemachine (Dennet, 1991). VIII. Gebrek aan ervaring met de verschillen in optrekeigenschappen van een diesel‐ en een benzineauto kan resulteren in onveilige situaties, met name op kruispunten. IX. Bill Gates is verantwoordelijk voor meer vertraging bij de afronding van het proefschrift dan het ontcijferen en verwerken van de commentaren van de promotor. X. Tijdens literatuuronderzoek zal menig promovendus kenmerken van Roodkapje vertonen. Huppelend van het ene artikel naar het andere artikel, merken promovendi zich opeens diep in het bos van literatuur te bevinden en komen vervolgens later aan bij Oma dan gepland. Deze stellingen worden opponeerbaar en verdedigbaar geacht en zijn als zodanig goedgekeurd door de promotoren prof.dr. A.R. Hale en prof.dr.ir. P.A. Wieringa. Propositions pertaining to the dissertation “Expecting the unexpected: a study of interactive driving behaviour at intersections” Maura Houtenbos, January 8, 2008 I. The available space‐time to negotiate an interaction situation largely determines whether one will be able to react adequately to an unexpected event. II. Using linked driving simulators opens up a whole new research field allowing us to better understand the nuances of interaction behaviour. III. Given the high number of encounters in traffic and the low number of accidents in which these result, we can conclude that people are good at interacting safely. IV. The key to a successful advanced driver assistance system is determining in which situations drivers actually need assistance and in which drivers are fine on their own. V. It often needs an unexpected event to make one aware of one’s initial expectation. VI. Knowingly exposing participants to an experience that could cause them to feel sick is on the verge of the unethical. VII. The key to control is the ability to track or even anticipate the important features of the environment, so all brains are, in essence, anticipation machines (Dennet, 1991). VIII. Lack of experience with the difference in acceleration qualities between diesel‐ and petrol‐driven cars can result in unsafe situations, particularly at intersections. IX. Bill Gates is responsible for more delay in finalising the PhD thesis than figuring out and processing the supervisor’s comments. X. During literature research, many a PhD student will resemble Little Red Riding Hood. Hopping from one article to the next, PhD students will suddenly discover that they are deep in the forest of literature, and therefore arrive at Grandmaʹs house later than planned. These propositions are considered to be opposable and defendable and as such have been approved by the supervisors prof.dr. A.R. Hale en prof.dr.ir. P.A. Wieringa. Expecting the unexpected A study of interactive driving behaviour at intersections Maura Houtenbos Expecting the unexpected A study of interactive driving behaviour at intersections Proefschrift ter verkrijging van de graad van doctor aan de Technische Universiteit Delft, op gezag van de Rector Magnificus prof.dr.ir. J.T. Fokkema voorzitter van het College voor Promoties, in het openbaar te verdedigen op dinsdag 8 januari 2008 om 12:30 uur door Maura HOUTENBOS doctorandus in de psychologie geboren te Seria, Brunei Dit proefschrift is goedgekeurd door de promotoren: Prof. dr. A.R. Hale Prof. dr. ir. P.A. Wieringa Samenstelling Promotiecommissie: Rector Magnificus Voorzitter Prof. dr. A.R. Hale Technische Universiteit Delft, promotor Prof. dr. ir. P.A. Wieringa Technische Universiteit Delft, promotor Prof. dr. O.M.J. Carsten University of Leeds, Groot Brittanië Prof. dr. J. Theeuwes Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam Prof. dr. ir. B. van Arem Universiteit Twente Prof. dr. K.A. Brookhuis Technische Universiteit Delft Dr. M.P. Hagenzieker Stichting Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek Verkeersveiligheid SWOV, Leidschendam Dr. M.P. Hagenzieker heeft als begeleider in belangrijke mate aan de totstandkoming van het proefschrift bijgedragen. Dit proefschrift is het resultaat van onderzoek tussen 2002 en 2007 uitgevoerd bij Technische Universiteit Delft, Faculteit Techniek Bestuur en Management, Veiligheidskunde en bij Stichting Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek Verkeersveiligheid SWOV. Het onderzoek maakte deel uit van het BAMADAS (Behavioural Analysis and Modelling for the Design and Implementation of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) onderzoeksprogramma gefinancierd door NWO en Connekt. Dit proefschrift is mede tot stand gekomen met steun van Sectie Veiligheidskunde, TBM. TRAIL Thesis Series nr. T2008/1, The Netherlands TRAIL Research School TRAIL Research School P.O.Box 5017 2600 GA Delft The Netherlands Phone: +31 (0) 15 278 6046 Fax: +31 (0) 15 278 4333 Email: [email protected] Artwork on cover: Caspar van Strijp & Maura Houtenbos Copyright © 2008 by Maura Houtenbos. All rights reserved. Printed in The Netherlands. ISBN 978‐90‐5584‐095‐3 Preface Both Delft University of Technology (Faculties Technology, Policy and Management & Mechanical, Maritime and Materials Engineering) and SWOV Institute for Road Safety Research provided me with a pleasant and rich environment in which the research presented in this thesis could be conducted, for which I am quite grateful. The staff at both institutes proved to be indispensable, particularly in preparing the online studies. The people at Green Dino Virtual Realities I would like to thank for providing me with the opportunity to experiment with two linked driving simulators, which has been a quite a unique experience. Having affiliations with different faculties as well as with a research institute definitely proved to be advantageous during the analysis of the results. I would like to thank Saskia, Jacques, Jolieke and Frank for their expert advice concerning statistical matters. You have been my guru’s! Joost de Winter deserves to be mentioned separately, as I really wouldn’t have known where to start without his enormous amount of help ploughing through the initial mount of data. Thanks a million! Furthermore, I would like to thank everyone who participated in the studies and experiments which provided me with the interesting data this thesis is based on. Without these participants, this thesis would not exist! I would also like to thank the interns who have helped me during the different studies and experiments, particularly Bart Schulte and Riny van Melzen. I would also like to mention the people at TNO Human Factors, department of Skilled Behaviour, who provided me with a warm welcome into the world of applied traffic psychology during the final phase of my psychology studies. Rino, Marika and others: thanks for a great internship and putting me on the path to PhD research. My fellow PhD‐students within BAMADAS and AIDA I would like to thank for the wonderful discussions, constructive feedback, pep talks and their lovely company at conferences. Geertje, Nina and Cornelie, it has been great experiencing the PhD adventure with you! My ex‐colleagues at the Safety Science section I would also like to thank for the many discussions, and of course for the fun and games after work. My colleagues (and ex‐colleagues) at SWOV are thanked for continually showing their interest in my research or simply in me and for the hallway and lunchtime discussions with often dubious subjects. Jolieke, Saskia, Sjoerd, Ragnhild, Nicole, Peter, Martijn and everyone I forgot, thanks! Jolieke, Saskia and Sjoerd, I look forward to continuing our fun traditions we have developed over the years! i ii Expecting the unexpected: A study of interactive driving behaviour at intersections Jolieke Mesken and Geertje Hegeman have been my sparring partners at SWOV and Delft during my life as a PhD student and I am happy that you have agreed to stand by me in the final hours! I am also in debt to the four people who have supervised the development of this thesis. Tom Heijer, thank you for your enthusiasm and your positive, “can do” mentality. Marjan Hagenzieker, thank you so much for your constructive feedback and clever suggestions, which never failed to rekindle my motivation. Particularly when the going got rough you were able to reassure me which definitely helped me get to the finish line.