LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR A DAILY PUBLICATION OF THE DIALOGUE www.thedialogue.org Thursday, March 21, 2019 BOARD OF ADVISORS FEATURED Q&A TODAY’S NEWS Diego Arria Director, Columbus Group POLITICAL Devry Boughner Vorwerk How Successful Venezuelan Gov’t Corporate VP, Global Corporate Affairs Cargill Agents Detain Key Joyce Chang Global Head of Research, Was Bolsonaro’s Aide to Guaidó JPMorgan Chase & Co. Venezuelan government agents Marlene Fernández early this morning raided the Corporate Vice President for Trip to Washington? home of attorney Roberto Marrero, Government Relations, Arcos Dorados a key aide to National Assembly Peter Hakim President and internationally President Emeritus, recognized acting President Juan Inter-American Dialogue Guaidó. Donna Hrinak Page 2 President, Boeing Latin America Jon Huenemann Vice President, U.S. & Int’l Affairs, ECONOMIC Philip Morris International Argentina OKs James R. Jones Chairman, New Natural Gas Monarch Global Strategies Craig A. Kelly Exports to Chile Director, Americas International Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro met Tuesday with U.S. President Donald Trump at the White Argentina authorized new ship- Gov’t Relations, Exxon Mobil House. // Photo: Brazilian Government. ments of gas to Chile by state oil John Maisto company YPF and France’s Total. Director, U.S. Education Finance Group Jair Bolsonaro visited Washington for the first time as Bra- Page 2 Nicolás Mariscal Chairman, zil’s president this week and on Tuesday discussed issues POLITICAL Grupo Marhnos including trade ties, military cooperation and the ongoing Thomas F. McLarty III Q turmoil in Venezuela with U.S. President Donald Trump. Nicaragua Vows Chairman, McLarty Associates What came of the visit, and how might it affect Brazil-U.S. relations go- to Release All Carlos Paz-Soldan ing forward? What are the most important areas of cooperation between Jailed Protesters Partner, DTB Associates, LLP the two countries, and what issues remain major sticking points? What Nicaraguan President Daniel Beatrice Rangel is motivating Bolsonaro’s policy toward the United States, and how much Ortega’s government said it will Director, release all demonstrators who of a turnaround will it be from the approach of past Brazilian administra- AMLA Consulting LLC have been detained since violent Jaana Remes tions? anti-government demonstrations Partner, erupted in the Central American McKinsey Global Institute country last April. The opposition Ernesto Revilla Peter Hakim, president emeritus at the Inter-American Head of Latin American has long demanded the prisoners’ Economics, Citi Dialogue: “The prospect of a re-energized U.S.-Brazil relation- release. Gustavo Roosen ship has fired up both nations’ governments. Bilateral ties Page 2 Chairman of the Board, Envases Venezolanos A have been cool and detached for the past half-dozen years. Andrés Rozental Presidents Bolsonaro and Trump demonstrate a special affinity—sharing President, Rozental & Asociados and Senior similar worldviews, convergent policy priorities and matching tempera- Policy Advisor, Chatham House ments. Both have proclaimed enthusiasm for deeper, more robust eco- Shelly Shetty nomic, political and security relations. The United States wants Brazil on Head of Sovereign Ratings, Latin America, Fitch its side. Recently, the White House has focused much of its Latin America Roberto Sifon-Arevalo attention on Venezuela and Cuba, pursuing regime change in both. The Managing Director, Americas Sovereign & Public Finance Ratings, United States has steadily escalated pressures on the Maduro govern- Standard & Poor’s ment, even suggesting a willingness to employ military force. Washington sees Brazil’s backing as essential for a successful strategy. For its part, Brazil views U.S. support on trade and other economic issues as crucial to its struggle to recharge its static, troubled economy—the Bolsonaro Ortega // File Photo: Nicaraguan Government. Continued on page 3 COPYRIGHT © 2019, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE PAGE 1 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR Thursday, March 21, 2019 POLITICAL NEWS escalated into general anti-government demon- NEWS BRIEFS strations and calls for him to leave office and Nicaragua Vows allow new elections. [Editor’s note: See related U.S. Senator Rubio Meets Q&A in Tuesday’s Advisor.] With Haitian President to Release All in Port-au-Prince Venezuelan Gov’t Jailed Protesters U.S. Senator Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) on Wednes- Authorities Detain day met with Haitian President Jovenel Moïse Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega’s govern- and lawmakers in Port-au-Prince, where they ment on Wednesday promised to release all Key Aide to Guaidó discussed the reshuffling of Moïse’s cabinet protesters who have been jailed since violent following the ouster of Jean-Henry Céant as anti-government demonstrations erupted in the Venezuelan government security forces early prime minister through a vote of no confidence Central American country nearly a year ago, the this morning detained a key aide to opposition in Congress, Reuters reported. Moïse, who in Associated Press reported. The government leader Juan Guaidó, who has international recent weeks has faced an internal crisis fol- said it would release the demonstrators within recognition as the country’s acting president, lowing paralyzing nationwide protests against 90 days, according to Waldemar Sommertag, the Associated Press reported, citing an him, on Twitter said he and Rubio had spoken the papal nuncio in Nicaragua, who announced opposition legislator. Intelligence agents raided about security and holding parliamentary the Ortega administration’s decision along- elections. side officials from the government and the opposition. The prisoners’ release has been a We don’t know where top demand of the opposition for continuing he is. He should be talks with Ortega’s government. In return for Argentina Authorizes freed immediately.” the release of the protesters, Ortega is asking YPF, Total to Export — Juan Guaidó for sanctions against his government to be Natural Gas to Chile lifted, the wire service reported. Some 640 Argentina’s energy secretariat has authorized demonstrators are estimated to be behind the Caracas home of lawyer Roberto Marrero, state oil company YPF to export 500,000 cubic bars. Talks that began Feb. 27 would resume capturing him in an overnight operation, said meters per day and France’s Total to send 1.5 today, the statement said. The situation in the the lawmaker, Sergio Vergara, whose home was million cubic meters per day of natural gas to Central American country has been particularly also searched. Agents woke up Vergara in the Chile during the eight-month period of lower lo- tense in recent days since security forces early morning hours by banging on his door and cal demand in Argentina, the government said broke up demonstrations last weekend. On pointed weapons at him when he answered, Wednesday, Reuters reported. The announce- Saturday, police used tear gas against pro- he said. Vergara and Marrero recently traveled ment came after a meeting between Argentine testers and temporarily detained about 100 of with Guaidó on a tour of Latin American coun- Energy Secretary Gustavo Lopetegui and them amid an anti-government demonstration, tries to shore up support for the opposition’s Chilean President Sebastián Piñera in Buenos MercoPress reported. The Civic Alliance for efforts to push President Nicolás Maduro from Aires. Argentina resumed gas exports to Chile Justice and Democracy, or ACJD, said Tuesday office. “We don’t know where he is,” Guaidó last October after an 11-year pause. that it would not participate in talks with the said of Marrero in a tweet. “He should be freed government until all “political prisoners” are immediately.” Guaidó returned to Venezuela on released and authorities cease repression of March 4. anti-government protesters. The statement that Trump to Meet With said talks would resume today added that the Caribbean Leaders discussions would focus on electoral reforms, ECONOMIC NEWS the Associated Press reported. Ortega has U.S. President Donald Trump is planning to been accused of seeking to remain in power meet with the leaders of several Caribbean indefinitely. At least 325 people have been Brazil’s Bolsonaro nations on Friday at his Mar-a-Lago resort in killed in connection with the anti-government Proposes Military Florida, The Hill reported Tuesday, citing a protests since last April, according to the White House statement. Trump will meet with Inter-American Commission on Human Rights. Pension Reform the leaders of the Bahamas, the Dominican Re- The protests began as a public reaction to cuts public, Haiti, Jamaica and Saint Lucia and will stress his administration’s “strong friendship in social security benefits. Ortega’s government Brazil’s government on Wednesday sent with and commitment to these countries,” the backed off from those cuts, but the protests lawmakers a proposal that seeks to save a White House said. COPYRIGHT © 2019, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE PAGE 2 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR Thursday, March 21, 2019 net 10.45 billion reais ($2.8 billion) over 10 FEATURED Q&A / Continued from page 1 years by imposing tougher retirement rules for the military, The Wall Street Journal reported. government’s most critical task. This would created an opportunity to advance in several President Jair Bolsonaro, a retired army cap- help build confidence of domestic banking areas, such as trade, defense, security and tain, personally went to Congress to deliver the and corporate communities and reassure in- innovation. However, it does not represent a military pension reform plan, accompanied by ternational investors about Brazil’s economic complete turnaround from the approach of Economy Minister Paulo Guedes and Defense future. Will the gains from Bolsonaro’s visit past Brazilian administrations, as the differ- Minister Fernando Azevedo, as well as army lead to a broader reshaping and deepening ence on how to deal with Maduro suggests. commander Edson Leal Pujol, Folha de S.Paulo of bilateral ties? Will they generate momen- Brazil and the United States have a wide area reported. The government’s bill would raise tum for new U.S.-Brazil trade arrangements, of convergence and asymmetries.