The Last Arab-Israeli Battlefield? Implications of an Israeli Withdrawal from Lebanon Edited by Patrick Clawson and Michael Eisenstadt With contributions from Nicole Brackman Steven A. Hecker John Hille.n Frederic C. Hof Gal Luft A Washington Institute for Near East Policy Monograph All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. © 2000 by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy Published in 2000 in the United States of America by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 1828 L Street NW, Suite 1050, Washington, DC 20036. ISBN 0-944029-41-8 Cover design by Monica Neal Hertzman. The Authors Nicole Brackman is a Soref fellow at The Washington Institute. Dr. Brackman received her Ph.D. in political science from Washington Uni- versity in St. Louis, focusing primarily on the Middle East and develop- ing nations. She received her B.A. in international relations from Tufts University. Dr. Brackman has authored articles and lectured widely vari- ous aspects of Middle East politics. Prior to coming to Institute, Dr. Brackman served as a senior research analyst and the director of cur- riculum development at the Committee for Accuracy in Middle East Reporting in America (CAMERA). Patrick L. Clawson is director for research at The Washington Insti- tute. He is most recently co-author of the Institute's Dollars and Diplo- macy: The Impact of U.S. Economic Initiatives on Arab-Israeli Negotiations (1999), and the editor of Iraq Strategy Review: Options for U.S. Policy(1998), also a Washington Institute publication. Dr. Clawson was previously a senior research professor at the Institute for National Strategic Studies of the National Defense University in Washington, D.C., where he was the editor of the institute's flagship annual publication, Strategic Assess- ment. Before that, he was a research economist at the International Mon- etary Fund, the World Bank, and the Foreign Policy Research Institute. Dr. Clawson graduated with a Ph.D. from the New School for Social Re- search and a B.A. from Oberlin College. Michael Eisenstadt is a senior fellow at The Washington Institute and author of several of the Institute's Policy Papers and monographs, in- cluding Iranian Military Power: Capabilities and Intentions (1996) and (with Andrew Bacevich and Carl Ford) Supporting Peace: America's Role in an Israel-Syria Peace Agreement (1994). He has served as an analyst with both the United States Army and with the United States Air Force Gulf War Air Power Survey, where he examined Iraqi strategy and planning prior to the Gulf War. His articles have appeared in the Washington Post, Sur- vival, Jane's Intelligence Review, and other publications. Steven A. Hecker has worked on Middle East-related issues for the Department of Defense since 1987. He has published numerous in-house products for military consumers and policymakers on a wide variety of subjects. He also has worked at the State Department. Mr. Hecker has an M.A. in Middle Eastern studies from the George Washington University, an M.A. in national security and strategic studies from the Naval War College, and a B.A. in journalism and political science from Ohio State University. John Hillen is temporarily serving on the U.S. Commission on NationalSecurity/21st Century, a bipartisan federal advisory commission. Prior to that appointment, he held fellowships at the Center for Strate- gic and International Studies and the Council on Foreign Relations. A former U.S. Army cavalry officer and paratrooper, he fought in the Per- sian Gulf War with a reconnaissance unit and has served recently with special operations forces in the Middle East. He holds a doctorate from Oxford and degrees from Duke University and King's College London. He is the author of the critically acclaimed book Blue Helmets: The Strategy of UN Military Operations (Brassey's, 1998) and numerous articles in schol- arly and professional journals. Frederic C. Hof is a partner in the Arlington, Va., international busi- ness consulting firm Armitage Associates. A former defense attache in Lebanon and State Department official, he writes and lectures on Middle Eastern political-military affairs. His publications include Galilee Divided: The Israel-Lebanon Frontier, 1916-1984 (Westview, 1985); Line of Battle, Border of Peace? The Line offune 4, 1967 (Middle East Insight, 1999); and a forthcoming monograph with the working title Beyond the Boundary: Build- ing a Stable Lebanese-Israeli Peace (Middle East Insight, 2000). Gal Luft is a lieutenant colonel in the Israel Defense Forces reserves, a research associate of The Washington Institute, and a graduate stu- dent at the Johns Hopkins University's Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies. During his military service, he was a battalion com- mander in Lebanon and the Golan Heights. He is the author of The Palestinian Security Services: Between Police and Army (1998), part of the Institute's Policy Focus series. The opinions expressed in this monograph are those of the authors and should not be construed as representing those of The Washington Insti- tute for Near East Policy, its Board of Trustees, or its Board of Advisors. Table of Contents Preface vii Executive Summary ix Introduction 1 Hizballah's Response to an Israeli Withdrawal from Southern Lebanon by Steven A. Hecker 5 Palestinian Refugees in Lebanon: The Achilles' Heel of the Peace Process? by Nicole Brackman 33 The Role of UNIFIL after an Israeli Withdrawal from Southern Lebanon by John Hillen 46 Securing the South: Syrian and Lebanese Interests, Capabilities, and Likely Actions by Frederic C. Hof 69 Securing Northern Israel Following an IDF Withdrawal from Southern Lebanon byGalLuft 89 U.S. Interests Following an Israeli Withdrawal from Lebanon by Patrick Claiuson and Michael Eisenstadt 122 Appendices A Security Council Resolution 425 (1978) 132 B Security Council Resolution 426 (1978) 133 C Security Council Resolution 520 (1982) 134 D Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Understanding 135 E Decision of the Israeli Ministerial Committee for National Security from April 1, 1998, regarding the implementation of Security Council Resolution 425 136 Sidebars and Maps Amal 12 Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps 15 Palestinian Refugee Camps 35 UNIFIL-A dmin istered A reas 51 The South Lebanon Army 86 Katyusha Threat 99 The Israel-Lebanon Monitoring Group 112 THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE for Near East Policy An educational foundation supporting scholarly research and informed debate on U. S. interests in the Near East Executive Committee Chairman President Chairman Emerita Michael Stein Fred S. Lafer Barbi Weinberg James Schreiber, Senior Vice President Vice Presidents Charles Adler Robert Goldman Benjamin Breslauer Walter Stern Secretary Treasurer Richard S. Abramson Martin J. Gross Executive Committee Robert Asher Leonard Goodman Fred Schwartz Richard Borow Cheryl Halpern David Steiner Maurice A. Deane Roger Hertog Bernard S. White Lawrence Phillips Board of Advisors Warren Christopher Edward Luttwak James Roche Alexander Haig Michael Mandelbaum Eugene V. Rostow Max M. Kampelman Robert C. McFarlane George P. Shultz Jeane Kirkpatrick Martin Peretz Paul Wolfowitz Samuel W. Lewis Richard Perle Mortimer Zuckerman Institute Staff Adjunct Scholars Executive Director Director for Research Hirsh Goodman Robert Satloff Patrick Clawson Simon Henderson Joshua Muravchik Administrator Senior Fellows Daniel Pipes Nina Bisgyer Michael Eisenstadt Harvey Sicherman Alan Makovsky Development Director David Makovsky Associates Laura Milstein Ze'evSchiff Research Felloxv Ehud Ya'an Financial Officer David Schenker Laura Hannah National Defense Fellow 2000 SarefFelbws Lt. Col. Craig McLane Director of Publications Nicole Brackman U.S. AIR FORCE Monica Neal Hertzman Adiba Mango Michael Rubin Visiting Military Fellows Executive Assistant Brig. Gen. Majed al-Maqableh Alison Rogers Research Assistants JORDANIAN ARMED FORCES Rania Al-Shirawi Col. Bertan Nogaylaroglu Development Assistant Levent Onar TURKISH ARMED FORCES Adam Schaeffer Erika Reff Heiko Stoiber 2000 Visiting Fellows Financial Assistant Ersel Aydinli Robin Edwards Research Interns Ibrahim Karawan Aylin Aydinli Abbas Kelidar Publications Associate Stuart Fleishman Reuven Paz Alicia Gansz Marcus Oliver Yehudit Ronin Leon Saltiel Brenda Shaffer Administrative Assistant Emily Schaeffer Sonya Waters VI Preface or the past fifteen years, Israel and its local allies have been fighting a Fbloody, low-intensity war against the Iranian- and Syrian-backed Hizballah (Party of God) in the hills of southern Lebanon. By July 2000, according to a unanimous vote of the Israeli cabinet, Israeli troops will no longer be in southern Lebanon, as Israel has committed itself to with- draw its remaining forces from that region. Yet, depending upon the circumstances of that withdrawal—whether by open agreement with Syria and Lebanon, through tacit arrangements, or via unilateral action—withdrawal itself may not mean the end of the war. Instead, the war may simply move from the killing fields of southern Lebanon to the new war zone of the Lebanese-Israeli border. In addi- tion, the combatants themselves may change, with Palestinian rejectionist groups picking up the mantle from a Hizballah that will undoubtedly claim victory. Although withdrawal