Transport for London Travel in London Report 4 MAYOR OF LONDON Transport for London ©Transport for London 2011 All rights reserved. Reproduction permitted for research, private study and internal circulation within an organisation. Extracts may be reproduced provided the source is acknowledged. Disclaimer This publication is intended to provide accurate information. However, TfL and the authors accept no liability or responsibility for any errors or omissions or for any damage or loss arising from use of the information provided. Overview .......................................................................................................... 1 Progress with the implementation of the Mayor’s Transport Strategy (MTS) ..................................................................................................... 11 1. Introduction ........................................................................................ 15 1.1 Travel in London report 4 ............................................................................ 15 1.2 Monitoring the implementation of the Mayor of London’s Transport Strategy ....................................................................................................... 15 1.3 Developments for this Travel in London report 4 ........................................ 16 1.4 Contents of this report ............................................................................... 16 1.5 Further information ..................................................................................... 18 2. Key travel trends in London ............................................................. 19 2.1 Introduction and content ............................................................................ 19 2.2 Summary of historic trends for overall travel in London .............................. 19 2.3 Summary of recent developments in overall travel demand in London – 2010 and 2010/11 ....................................................................................... 19 2.4 Key concepts for estimating travel in London: trips, journey stages and estimates of total travel .............................................................................. 20 2.5 Trips in London ........................................................................................... 21 2.6 Journey Stages in London ........................................................................... 24 2.7 Mode shares ............................................................................................... 26 2.8 MTS Strategic Outcome Indicator: Travel demand ...................................... 29 2.9 MTS Strategic Outcome Indicator: Mode shares ......................................... 29 2.10 Travel by London residents – TfL’s London Travel Demand Survey (LTDS) .. 30 2.11 Focus on: Travel to central London in the weekday AM peak – TfL’s Central Area Peak Count survey (CAPC) ...................................................... 37 2.12 Travel in London compared with other GB metropolitan areas. .................. 42 3. Travel trends by principal travel modes ......................................... 45 3.1 Introduction and content ............................................................................ 45 3.2 Summary of key historic trends up to 2009 ................................................. 45 3.3 Recent developments – focusing on 2010 and 2010/11 .............................. 46 3.4 Patronage of principal TfL-operated public transport modes – recent history and relationship to principal travel demand drivers .......................... 48 3.5 Modal trends – travel by bus ....................................................................... 51 3.6 Modal trends – travel by Underground ........................................................ 51 3.7 Modal trends – travel by DLR ...................................................................... 52 3.8 Modal trends – travel by Tramlink ............................................................... 53 3.9 Modal trends – travel by London Overground ............................................. 54 3.10 Modal trends – travel by National Rail in London ........................................ 55 3.11 Modal trends – overall road traffic volumes ................................................ 57 3.12 Modal trends – road traffic crossing strategic counting cordons and screenlines .................................................................................................. 59 Travel in London, Report 4 i 3.13 Modal trends – cycling ................................................................................ 62 3.14 Modal trends – freight in London ................................................................ 67 3.15 Modal trends – travel by air ......................................................................... 71 3.16 Modal trends – travel by river services ........................................................ 72 3.17 Modal trends – licensed taxis and private hire ............................................. 73 4. The performance of the transport networks ................................ 77 4.1 Introduction and content ............................................................................ 77 4.2 Review of historic trends ............................................................................. 77 4.3 Recent developments – 2010 and 2010/11 ................................................. 79 4.4 Performance of London Underground ......................................................... 82 4.5 Performance of London Buses .................................................................... 85 4.6 Performance of Docklands Light Railway and London Tramlink ................... 87 4.7 Performance of National Rail including London Overground ....................... 88 4.8 MTS Strategic Outcome Indicator: Public Transport Reliability .................... 90 4.9 Focus on: public transport capacity............................................................. 91 4.10 MTS Strategic Outcome Indicator: Public transport capacity ....................... 93 4.11 MTS Strategic Outcome Indicator: Satisfaction with levels of crowding on the principal public transport modes ........................................................... 94 4.12 Road Network - traffic speeds and congestion in London ........................... 95 4.13 Focus on: Long-term change to traffic demand and road network capacity in London ................................................................................................. 100 4.14 Traffic smoothing – journey time reliability for road traffic ........................ 105 4.15 MTS Strategic Outcome Indicator: Journey time reliability for road traffic 109 4.16 Operating costs for TfL services ............................................................... 110 4.17 MTS Strategic Outcome Indicator: Operating costs for TfL services per passenger kilometre for the principal public transport modes. .................. 111 4.18 Asset condition for TfL services ............................................................... 111 4.19 MTS Strategic Outcome Indicator: Asset condition for TfL services .......... 112 5. Supporting economic development and population growth: London’s demographic and economic trends ............................. 113 5.1 Introduction and content .......................................................................... 113 5.2 Summary of key trends and recent developments .................................... 113 5.3 London’s population ................................................................................. 114 5.4 London’s economy: Economic output ...................................................... 115 5.5 London’s economy: Employment trends .................................................. 118 5.6 London’s economy: Relationship to travel demand trends ....................... 120 5.7 MTS Strategic Outcome Indicator: People’s access to jobs ....................... 124 5.8 Focus on: Travel to London’s Docklands .................................................. 126 5.9 Focus on: Defining and monitoring the Transport Legacy of the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games ....................................................... 132 6. Safety and security on the transport system .............................. 145 6.1 Introduction and content .......................................................................... 145 ii Travel in London, Report 4 6.2 Review of key trends and developments in 2010 ...................................... 145 6.3 Road safety ............................................................................................... 146 6.4 MTS Strategic Outcome Indicator: Road traffic casualties ......................... 148 6.5 Passenger safety on the public transport networks ................................... 149 6.6 Crime and anti-social behaviour on the public transport networks ............ 150 6.7 MTS Strategic Outcome Indicator: Crime on the principal public transport modes ...................................................................................................... 151 6.8 Perception of crime .................................................................................. 152 6.9 MTS Strategic Outcome Indicator: Perception of crime/safety .................. 154 7. Air quality, climate change and transport-related noise in London ............................................................................................... 157 7.1 Local air quality: