North London Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009-10 Draft Report of Study Findings February 2011 North London Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009-10 Lesley Mallett (North London Sub-Regional Co-ordinator) [email protected] Housing Services, London Borough of Barnet, North London Business Park, Oakleigh Road South, London N11 1NP enquiries 020 8359 7015· · www.barnet.gov.uk © Copyright February 2011 The views expressed in this report are those of the consultants and do not necessarily reflect those of the North London Opinion Research Services The Strand, Swansea SA1 1AF enquiries 01792 535300 · [email protected] · www.ors.org.uk Jonathan Lee Chris Broughton Nigel Moore ·Hugo Marchant Catherine Nock Page 2 Contents Section 1: Introducing the Study ....................................................................................................................... 7 What Is A Strategic Housing Market Assessment? ............................................................................... 7 Satisfying the Process Checklist ............................................................................................................ 9 Providing the Core Outputs ................................................................................................................ 11 Section 2: The Study Context........................................................................................................................... 13 The National Policy Context ............................................................................................................... 13 The Regional Policy Context ............................................................................................................... 15 The London Plan 2004, 2008 and the Mayors Draft Consultation Plan October 2009 ...................... 15 The London Mayor’s Housing Strategy and the Draft Housing Strategy 2009................................... 18 The London Economic Development Strategy, 2009 ......................................................................... 19 The North London Sub-region ............................................................................................................ 21 The strategic priorities for North London .......................................................................................... 21 Pen picture of Boroughs in the sub-region ........................................................................................ 24 Barnet LBC .......................................................................................................................................... 24 Camden LBC ........................................................................................................................................ 24 Enfield LBC .......................................................................................................................................... 24 Hackney LBC ....................................................................................................................................... 25 Haringey LBC ....................................................................................................................................... 26 Islington LBC ....................................................................................................................................... 26 The City of Westminster ..................................................................................................................... 27 Consultation with stakeholders .......................................................................................................... 27 Section 3: Housing Market Drivers .................................................................................................................. 31 National Level Household Changes .................................................................................................... 31 Population Trends in London ............................................................................................................. 32 Household Type .................................................................................................................................. 33 Migration ............................................................................................................................................ 34 Migration within London .................................................................................................................... 34 UK Migration ...................................................................................................................................... 37 International Migration ...................................................................................................................... 39 Migrant Workers ................................................................................................................................ 39 Asylum Seekers ................................................................................................................................... 40 Economic Factors................................................................................................................................ 41 Page 3 North London Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009-10 Economic Activity ............................................................................................................................... 41 Incomes and Earnings ......................................................................................................................... 42 Employment ....................................................................................................................................... 43 Skills and Education ............................................................................................................................ 45 Travel to Work .................................................................................................................................... 46 Section 4: Existing Housing Stock and the Housing Market ........................................................................... 51 Property Type ..................................................................................................................................... 51 Housing Tenure .................................................................................................................................. 52 Houses in Multiple Occupation and Communal Establishments ....................................................... 54 The niche markets of the private rented sector ................................................................................. 55 The housing benefit and temporary accommodation household niche ............................................ 56 Proposed changes Local Housing Allowance in the June 2010 Budget. ............................................. 57 Proposals affecting social housing within the Government’s June 2010 Budget. ............................. 58 Regional Trends in Housing Costs....................................................................................................... 61 Geographic Distribution of House Prices ........................................................................................... 63 Section 5: Existing Households in Housing Need ............................................................................................ 67 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 67 Identifying Unsuitably Housed Households ....................................................................................... 67 Assessing Established Households in Unsuitable Housing ................................................................. 68 Established Households Living in Unsuitable Housing ....................................................................... 71 Resolving Housing Unsuitability ......................................................................................................... 71 Households in Housing Need.............................................................................................................. 72 Section 6: Housing Market Dynamics .............................................................................................................. 75 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 75 Assessing Affordability ....................................................................................................................... 75 Assessing Affordability for Owner Occupation................................................................................... 76 Assessing Affordability for Rented Housing ....................................................................................... 76 Modelling the Housing Market ........................................................................................................... 78 Introducing Micro-Simulation Models ............................................................................................... 78 The ORS Housing Market Model (the model) .................................................................................... 79 Understanding the Required Housing Tenure Mix ............................................................................