University of Denver Digital Commons @ DU Electronic Theses and Dissertations Graduate Studies 1-1-2018 From Dissent to Democracy? The Promise and Perils of Civil Resistance Transitions Jonathan C. Pinckney University of Denver Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.du.edu/etd Part of the International Relations Commons Recommended Citation Pinckney, Jonathan C., "From Dissent to Democracy? The Promise and Perils of Civil Resistance Transitions" (2018). Electronic Theses and Dissertations. 1419. https://digitalcommons.du.edu/etd/1419 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate Studies at Digital Commons @ DU. It has been accepted for inclusion in Electronic Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Digital Commons @ DU. For more information, please contact [email protected],[email protected]. From Dissent to Democracy? The Promise and Perils of Civil Resistance Transitions A Dissertation Presented to the Faculty of the Josef Korbel School of International Studies University of Denver In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy By Jonathan C. Pinckney March 2018 Advisor: Dr. Erica Chenoweth Author: Jonathan C. Pinckney Title: From Dissent to Democracy? The Promise and Perils of Civil Resistance Transitions Advisor: Dr. Erica Chenoweth Degree Date: March 2018 Abstract Under what conditions will successful nonviolent revolutions be followed by democratization? While the scholarly literature has shown that nonviolent resistance has a positive effect on a country’s level of democracy, little research to date has disaggregated this population to explain which cases of successful nonviolent resistance lead to democracy and which do not. In this study I present a theory of democratization in civil resistance transitions in which I argue that political actors’ behavior in three strategic challenges: mobilization, maximalism, and holdovers policy, systematically affect the likelihood of democratization. I test this theory using a nested research design that begins with statistical testing on a dataset of every political transition from authoritarian rule in the post-World War II period and continues with three in-depth case studies informed by interviews with key decisionmakers. The testing supports the important of two out of the three challenges: differences in mobilization and maximalism have strong, consistent effects on democratization after civil resistance. ii Acknowledgements This dissertation has benefited from more people than I can possibly name. First, I am deeply grateful to the careful supervision and mentorship of my advisor Erica Chenoweth. I am also grateful for the members of my committee: Cullen Hendrix, Aaron Schneider, and Tim Sisk. I would like to thank my interviewees in all three countries, and the International Center on Nonviolent Conflict, who gave me funding and allowed me to publish findings in their monograph series. In Nepal, my thanks go to Subindra Bogati, Ches Thurber and Chiranjibi Bhandari, for helping identify interview contacts. In Zambia, the same thanks goes to Miles Larmer, Adrienne LeBas, Nic Cheeseman, Marja Hinfelaar, Sishuwa Sishuwa, and Akashambatwa Mbikusita-Lewanika. In Brazil, thanks to my RAs: Karine Fernandes, Fabricio Freitas, Paula Moreira, and Isabela Ottoni. My thanks also goes to Fernando Horta, who hosted me in Brasilia. My thanks also goes to all those who have offered comments on early versions of the research, particularly Luke Abbs, Consuelo Amat, Colin Beck, Killian Clarke, John Chin, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, Milli Lake, George Lawson, Liesel Mitchell, Benjamin Naimark-Rowse, Sharon Nepstad, Daniel Ritter, and Ches Thurber. I also have the joy and the privilege to be part of a community of scholars in the PhD program at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies. Every one of my colleagues at Korbel has been kind, supportive, and encouraging. I would like to particularly thank Joel Day, Kyleanne Hunter, Pauline Moore, and Chris Shay. Finally, my love and gratitude goes out to my family, particularly my parents Coty and Beth Pinckney and my partner Kandyce Pinckney. iii Table of Contents Abstract ............................................................................................................................................ ii Acknowledgements......................................................................................................................... iii List of Tables ................................................................................................................................... vi List of Figures ................................................................................................................................. vii Preface/Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 1 Chapter 1: The Structuration of Democracy. ................................................................................... 5 Understanding Nonviolent Resistance ......................................................................................... 5 The Challenges of Civil Resistance Transitions........................................................................... 14 The Ends of Civil Resistance Transitions .................................................................................... 42 Defining Regimes, Transitions, and Democracy ......................................................................... 47 Theoretical Underpinnings: The Structuration of Democracy ................................................... 56 Where Things Flow: Choosing a Point of Analysis ................................................................. 65 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................. 75 Chapter 2: Testing the Three Behavioral Patterns Quantitatively ................................................. 78 Operationalizing Concepts ......................................................................................................... 80 Describing The Data and Testing CRTs and Non-CRTs ............................................................. 114 Testing the Challenges of Civil Resistance Transitions............................................................. 123 Discussion ................................................................................................................................. 133 Introduction to Case Study Chapters ........................................................................................... 137 The Case Selection Process ...................................................................................................... 137 The Qualitative Research Process ............................................................................................ 141 Chapter 3: Nepal’s Second People’s Movement and Fractious Semi-Democracy....................... 144 Background of the “Jana Andolan II” ...................................................................................... 148 From “Jana Andolan” to Fractious Semi-Democracy ............................................................... 154 Analysis .................................................................................................................................... 175 Chapter 4: “Power is Sweet” Elite Semi-Democracy in Zambia ................................................... 191 Background .............................................................................................................................. 196 Struggling Against the One-Party State ................................................................................... 200 The MMD in Power .................................................................................................................. 205 Analysis .................................................................................................................................... 213 Chapter 5: Brazil: Moderation and Mobilization ......................................................................... 221 iv Brazil: The Road to Military Government and Out of it Again ................................................. 224 The Brazilian Transition ............................................................................................................ 233 Analysis .................................................................................................................................... 240 Conclusion: Civil Resistance and Democratization ...................................................................... 250 Works Cited .................................................................................................................................. 260 Appendix A: Variable Coding and Additional Statistical Tests ..................................................... 283 Expanding Authoritarian Regimes Data ................................................................................... 283 Missing Prior Regimes for Civil Resistance Transitions ........................................................ 290 Additional Information on Sources and Variable Construction ............................................... 291 Democracy: The Polyarchy Score ......................................................................................... 291 Transitional Mobilization ....................................................................................................