nineteenth world congress 2 0 2 1 Virtual 2-6 July programme organized by: With the support of: WELCOME MESSAGE The 19th World Congress of the International Economic Association was to be held in Bali, Indonesia in July 2020. But these are unusual times, and the pandemic has forced us to postpone it to July 2021, and to hold it online and in abbreviated form. Nevertheless, we hope we have managed to put together an interesting program and look forward to your participation. Plenary sessions and a selection of invited sessions will be held online by Zoom between July 2-6, 2021, while other invited sessions and contributed papers will be recorded in advance and uploaded to the congress website. The IEA’s World Congress is one of the largest gatherings of its kind and brings people from all over the world to discuss their research and policy issues of mutual concern and to address and debate the big economic and policy challenges of our time. We expect vibrant discussion as usual, and engagement with new ideas in the coming days. The IEA relies on global cooperation for its success. We are deeply thankful to the Ministry of Finance of Indonesia and in particular to Minister of Finance Sri Mulyani Indrawati who offered to host the original Congress in Bali and have contributed significantly to the realization of the online version. We are hugely appreciative of the tireless work of the members of the program committee, whose names appear on page 2. We are also extremely grateful to Andrea Cavallo, the IEA’s manager and Congress supremo, who has played a pivotal role throughout. The program committee has helped in the selection of papers and organization of sessions along with a range of partner organizations – we are grateful to all of them. The Congress would not have been possible without generous sponsorship. We would like to thank the Asian Development Bank (ADB), Nandan Philanthropies, the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), the University of Illinois at Chicago (UIC) and Bloomberg. Every economic crisis calls for change in the economics profession and for new thinking. This was true after the global financial crisis, and it is even more true after the devastating effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on health and livelihoods around the world. We hope the world pulls out of the pandemic quickly. Greater availability of vaccines and their distribution in poor nations will be critical for that. But even with the pandemic behind us, the economic scars on labor markets in advanced nations and the reversal in developmental gains in poor countries will remain with us. And they are likely to exert a long shadow on the future. Economics is responding to the challenges of our time. Environmental sustainability, inequalities of gender, race, incomes, the rise of authoritarian populism, and the reform of globalization are all centrally on the agenda of the profession. New areas such as behavioral economics, political economy, and the economics of culture continue to develop alongside more traditional fields of the discipline. The IEA has always stood for a combination of relevance and rigor. And we have stood for diversity both in terms of perspectives on economic problems and the representation of participants. The Congress is an opportunity for elevating ongoing discussions and debates within Economics onto a truly global stage. Our aim is to represent the global economics profession in all of its dimensions. We continue to find new members keen to join in this global project and we are welcoming Colegio de Ciencias Económicas de Tamaulipas A.C. (Mexico), Economics Association of Zambia (EAZ) and Global Labor Organization (GLO) to their first World Congress as members. But we do not take our loyal existing members for granted, and we are grateful for their continuing support, recognizing that there is a role for a global federation of economics’ associations. The next World Congress is scheduled for 2023 when we look forward to welcoming you back and Elhanan Helpman will be taking over as President. We wish you an enjoyable and intellectually rewarding Congress. Kaushik Basu, President Dani Rodrik, President-Elect and Congress Chair 1 PROGRAM COMMITTEE Dani Rodrik (Chair) (HarVard UniVersity) Anders Jensen (HarVard UniVersity) ViVi Alatas (AsakreatiVita) Omar Licandro (UniVersity of Nottingham) Chong-en Bai (Tsinghua UniVersity) Luis Felipe López-CalVa (UNDP) Jie Bai (HarVard UniVersity) Dalia Marin (TUM School of Management, Technical UniVersity of Munich) Chatib Basri (UniVersity of Indonesia) Atif Mian (Princeton UniVersity) Haroon Bhorat (UniVersity of Cape Town) Célestin Monga (AfDB) Sam Bowles (Santa Fe Institute) Rohini Pande (yale UniVersity) Leonardo Bursztyn (UniVersity of Chicago) Marta Reynal-Querol (ICREA- UPF, IPEG and Lorenzo Caliendo (yale UniVersity) Barcelona GSE) Wendy Carlin (UniVersity College London) Rohini Somanathan (Delhi School of Economics) Teguh Dartanto (UniVersity of Indonesia) Stefanie StantcheVa (HarVard UniVersity) Ashwini Deshpande (Ashoka UniVersity) Chris Udry (Northwestern UniVersity) Ishac Diwan (Ecole Normale Superieure, Paris) Ercan Uygur (Turkish Economic Association Claudio Ferraz (UBC and PUC-Rio) Foundation) Augustin Fosu (ISSER, UniVersity of Ghana) Juan Vargas (UniVersidad del Rosario) Sergei GurieV (Sciences Po) Leonard Wantchekon (Princeton UniVersity) Rema Hanna (HarVard UniVersity) Firman Witoelar (Australian National UniVersity) Elhanan Helpman (HarVard UniVersity) Chenggang Xu (Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business) LOCAL ORGANIZING COMMITTEE, Ministry of finance Hidayat Amir Ayu Sukorini (Director for Macroeconomic Policy Center) (Head of Secretariat, Fiscal Policy Agency) 2 day 1 | THURSDAY 1 - FRIDAY 2, JULY 2021 wc2021 Thu 1 21:30 to 22:00 EDT | Fri 2 08:30 to 09:00 Jakarta Opening Ceremony Click here to register for this session MEssagEs from: Sri Mulyani Indrawati (Minister of Finance of Indonesia), Kaushik Basu (Cornell University) and Masatsugu Asakawa (ADB President) Sri Mulyani Indrawati Kaushik Basu Masatsugu Asakawa Thu 1 22:00 to 23:00 EDT | Fri 2 09:00 to 10:00 Jakarta PANEL Panel on Asian and Global Policy Issues Click here to register for this session Chair: Kaushik Basu (Cornell University) SpEakErs: Sri Mulyani Indrawati (Minister of Finance of Indonesia), Dani Rodrik (Harvard University) and Mari Pangestu (University of California) Kaushik Basu Sri Mulyani Indrawati Dani Rodrik Mari Pangestu 3 day 1 | FRIDAY 2, JULY 2021 wc2021 Fri 2 00:00 to 01:00 EDT | Fri 2 11:00 to 12:00 Jakarta Bank Indonesia Institute / IBER / Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association (APAEA) COVID-19 and Monetary Policy Click here to register for this session Chair: Paresh K. Narayan (Monash University) PAPER 1 Understanding Market Reaction to COVID-19 Monetary and Fiscal Stimulus in Major ASEAN Economies Paresh K. Narayan (APAEA, Monash Universty, Australia), Syed Aun R. Rizvi (APAEA, Lahore University of Management Sciences, Pakistan), Solikin M. Juhro (Bank of Indonesia) PAPER 2 COVID-19, Policy Responses, and Productivity Around the Globe Bernard Njindan Iyke (Centre for Financial Econometrics, Deakin University & APAEA), Susan Sunila Sharma (Centre for Financial Econometrics, Deakin University & APAEA), Iman Gunadi (Bank of Indonesia Institute) PAPER 3 Covid-19 Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Responses: Evidence from Emerging Market Economies K.P. Prabheesh (Indian Institute of Technology, Hyderabad), Cicilia Harun (Bank of Indonesia), Solikin M. Juhro (Bank of Indonesia) PAPER 4 Fluctuations and Spillovers of Intraday Exchange Rates during COVID-19: Evidence from Selected Asian Countries Neluka Devpura (APAEA, University of Sri Jayewardenepura, Sri Lanka), Aryo Sasongko (Bank of Indonesia), Iman Gunadi (Bank of Indonesia Institute) 4 day 1 | FRIDAY 2, JULY 2021 wc2021 03:00 to 04:00 EDT | 14:00 to 15:00 Jakarta MoF Indonesia The Economic Impact of a Mega Sport Event: A Case Study of Asian Games 2018 Click here to register for this session Chair: Amalia Adininggar Widyasanti (Ministry of National Development Planning/Bappenas) PAPER 1 Long-Term Effect of Mega Sports Event on Host Country’s Tourism: Evidence from the Jakarta-Palembang 2018 Asian Games Mohamad D. Revindo, Amalia A. Widyasanti, Chairina H. Siregar, Devina Anindita, Nurindah W. Hastuti, Sean Hambali and Devianto (University of Indonesia; Ministry of National Development Planning, Indonesia) PAPER 2 Estimating Economic Impact of a Major Sports Event: A Case Study of the 18th Asian Games Mochammad Firman Hidayat (Ministry of National Development Planning/Bappenas), Bertha Fania Maula (FEB-Universitas Brawijaya) and Amalia Adininggar Widyasanti (Ministry of National Development Planning/Bappenas) PAPER 3 Bank Credit Development: A Study of Macro-Prudential Effect Sebastiana Viphindrartin (FEB-Universitas Jember) PAPER 4 Social Capital Roles in Maintaining Investment Sustainability in Lumajang Regency Silvi Asna Prestianawati (FEB-Universitas Brawijaya) 5 day 1 | FRIDAY 2, JULY 2021 wc2021 08:00 to 08:10 EDT | 19:00 to 19:10 Jakarta Stiglitz Essay Prize award ceremony Click here to register for this session Graduate category 1st Prize: Nicolas Longuet Marx (Columbia University) 2nd Prize: Mumin Ahmed (University of Glasgow) 3rd Prize: Wannaphong Durongkaveroj (Australian National University) Undergraduate category 1st Prize: Daksh Walia (Ashoka University) 2nd Prize: Pradnyee Kantak, Fergusson College (Autonomous) 08:00 to 09:00 EDT | 19:00 to 20:00 Jakarta PLENARY Plenary: Development and Macroeconomic Policy in