Ukraine Concorde Capital July 10, 2014 Conference Takeaways Ukraine’s European Vector: Impact on Business London, July 3-4, 2014 ___ Conference outline, July 3: speakers Politics and Reforms Session - Igor Mazepa, CEO, Concorde Capital - Petro Poroshenko, President of Ukraine (via video address) - Andy Hunder, Director of The Ukrainian Institute in London - Sir Gerald Howarth, Member of British Parliament - Edward Lucas, Editor, The Economist - Robert Brinkley, former Ambassador of the United Kingdom to Ukraine - Oleg Bakhmatyuk, Ukrainian businessman Macro Trends Session - Valeriia Gontareva, Head of Central Bank of Ukraine (via live video call) - Dmytro Fedoruk, Counsel, Clifford Chance - Sergei Voloboev, Director, Emerging Markets Economics, Credit Suisse - Alexander Pivovarsky, Senior Adviser, Corporate Strategy, EBRD - Richard Segal, EMEA Credit Strategist, Jefferies International Business Session - Victor Pinchuk, Ukrainian businessman - Yuriy Vitrenko, Senior Advisor to CEO, Naftogaz of Ukraine - Tymur Novikov, First Deputy Chairman of the Board of PrivatBank - Kirill Rubinski, CEO, EastOne - Alexey Golubovich, Founder, Arbat Capital Special Investment Opportunities in Ukraine Roman Ivanyuk, Head of Investment Banking Department Alexander Paraschiy, Head of Research, Concorde Capital One-on-one meeting with funds, July 4: speakers Astarta Mykola Kovalski, Director for Development & IR Avangardco and Ukraldndfarming (ULF) Oleg Bakhmatyuk, main shareholder and CEO (ULF) Ihor Petrashko, Deputy CEO (ULF) Oleksiy Yergiyev, Head of Investments (Avangardco) First Ukrainian International Bank (PUMB) Sergey Chernenko, CEO Igor Kozhevin, CFO Kernel Yuriy Kovalchuk, Director, Corporate Investments MHP (Myronovsky Hliboproduct) Irina Bublik, Head of Investment Planning Naftogaz of Ukraine Yuriy Vitrenko, Senior Advisor to CEO CONCORDE CAPITAL Conference Takeaways Concorde Capital July 10, 2014 ABSTRACTS FROM PRESENTATIONS, JULY 3 Petro Poroshenko, President of Ukraine The now famous EuroMaidan protest proved to the world that the Ukrainian people belong to the European family. As signing the free trade portion of the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement, Poroshenko is now responsible for ensuring that Ukraine’s European choice becomes a permanent reality, rather than a brief illusion. Ukraine has enormous potential in the agriculture and food industries, and the Association Agreement and deregulation that the government is bringing to the sector will serve to unlock it. Other promising sectors are machinery, infrastructure, IT and energy, which are looking for new markets, opportunities and investments. The government is planning to fulfill a wide range of political and economic reforms that will make investment in Ukraine a positive experience with fewer risks. Among these efforts will be attempts to deal with corruption, deregulation of business, judiciary reform as well as reforms in law enforcement bodies. Further steps are planned to improve the stability and efficiency of the banking system. Reforms aren’t something that can be postponed – we have to produce results today. The government has gained a chance to modernize the country and bring real reforms to the benefit of our citizens, business and investors, and we simply can’t afford to lose it. [Concorde Capital note: Indeed, as many experts at the conference noted, reforms are a crucial step in securing Ukraine’s territorial integrity, unlike in 2005 after the Orange revolts, when reforms were just an option]. All the reforms in the pipeline should improve the investment climate in Ukraine, so right now you have a unique opportunity to be the first to get in. Valeriia Gontareva, central bank head Link to Gontareva’s introductory speech (video) on the NBU website Link to the key points of Gontareva’s speech in an NBU press release The primary task of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) is to restore confidence in the banking system and secure the banking system’s stability, including: Securing a fully flexible UAH/USD rate and implement inflation-targeting. Inflation-targeting will be introduced during the next 18 month. Inflation- targeting is impossible to implement without normal working capital markets. Stability of the banking sector. The core task here is to remove all the earlier implemented restrictions. It is important to consolidate the banking sector, with greater focus on the quality of management, high standards of corporate governance and transparency of funding sources. Important tasks also include strengthening supervision over the banking sector, as well as the creation of special programs to stabilize the banking system, its capital and liquidity. This task will be executed in cooperation with the World Bank. Reaching these goals would help boost the confidence of depositors and investors and foster sustainable economic growth in Ukraine. Also among Gontareva’s goals is to abolish regulations that inhibit free cross- border flow of currency. 2 CONCORDE CAPITAL Conference Takeaways Concorde Capital July 10, 2014 Regarding the IMF, its mission’s results will be disclosed by the end of July. Ukraine has met all the parameters to qualify for a new tranche (about USD 1.4 bln in July). View on the economy: Economic performance is better than could have been expected given the turmoil in eastern Ukraine. 2015 GDP is projected to increase by 1-2% owing to a positive shift in the investment climate, gains in price competiveness and structural adjustments in the economy. Outlook for hryvnia: Gontareva didn’t provide any concrete outlook for the UAH/USD rate as she’s committed to not influencing exchange rates. However, she believes the hryvnia might stabilize [Concorde Capital note: we interpret it as the hryvnia might strengthen] in the near term, while much will depend on the situation in the easternmost regions. Some inflow of private deposits has been recently observed, which is encouraging for the future stability of the banking system (deposit inflow was UAH 1.5 bln in June vs. UAH 15.8 bln outflow in May, according to updated information from the NBU. Outflow was still being observed in Crimea and the easternmost regions of Ukraine, while the majority of regions demonstrated 2-5% m/m growth). Victor Pinchuk, businessman On Ukraine’s key drivers Ukraine suffered a real tragedy it had never before and gained its biggest chance as never before. Therefore, it’s an absolute priority for the president to establish peace in Ukraine and for the prime minister is to undertake reforms. Ukraine’s civil society is more mature than its political society, and Ukrainians, as the EuroMaidan events showed, are ready to pay a big price to try to change the country for the better. There is high demand for rule of law and fighting corruption in Ukraine and this is what the government is committed to doing and this is what investors will welcome. Clearly, achieving peace is the main goal right now. When it is achieved, the great combination of strong leadership and a mature society (which Pinchuk believes Ukraine has right now) will make the country popular for investors. Oleg Bakhmatyuk, businessman On new challenges and opportunities for Ukraine The recent political events reflect hopes for the better, though these hopes have yet to become reality. What has really changed in recent times is the consolidation of the whole Ukrainian community against the backdrop of recent challenges. All the elites have united, abandoning their differences and working hard to save Ukraine and promote its prosperity. The new challenges and risks also create a background for new opportunities for Ukraine. Indicative is the example of the latest natural gas war with Russia, which is an opportunity for Ukraine. It started far before the heating season to Ukraine’s benefit, allowing it reconsider its gas dependence on Russia and even find ways to live without Russian gas entirely. Ukraine’s crisis might even trigger reforms of the whole energy sector of Europe now. 3 CONCORDE CAPITAL Conference Takeaways Concorde Capital July 10, 2014 Ukraine’s most prospective sector, as Bakhmatyuk sees it, is grain farming and trading. In the near future, Ukraine will become as important a player on the grain market as Saudi Arabia is on the oil market. It’s important that the government invest the money that is being offered by IFI into Ukraine’s infrastructure. This will provide a good platform for attracting new investments into the private sector already next year. Sergei Voloboev, Credit Suisse On the need for reforms and Ukraine’s macroeconomic outlook By late 2013, Ukraine was facing the most daunting macro imbalances in EEMEA (massive energy subsidies and funding needs, inflexible exchange rate, very low and falling FX reserves) and an oppressive business environment. The strong IFI-backed reform program adopted earlier this year offers arguably the best (yet potentially last) chance for a breakthrough on reform. The main challenge for elites, besides preserving Ukraine’s integrity, is to rise above narrowly interpreted political interests in order to curb corruption, support democracy, and establish a level playing field for businesses and individuals. Ukraine’s progress on reform, in governance and transparency, would offer the best indemnity against future attempts to undermine its integrity. This year will be challenging for the Ukrainian economy. GDP is forecasted to decline 5.3% in 2014, with more downside risk. The hryvnia is set to further weaken to 12.4/USD by the end of the year. (The bank’s analysts also consider in their base-case scenario GDP recovery of 1.5% growth in 2015 and strengthening of the local currency to 12/USD by end-2015). Alexey Golubovich, Arbat Capital On investable sectors of Ukraine The recent political changes give Ukraine an opportunity to be the first big country in the post-Soviet space to make a real large-scale transition from a government-controlled to free market economy. Ukraine has the potential for successful modernization and liberal economic reform. Worsening trade conditions with Russia is the main challenge to Ukraine, and they might harm some sectors (railcar, paper, furniture and confectionery producers).