AN INVENTORY OF SELECTED MATHEMATICAL MODELS RELATING TO THE MOTOR VEHICLE TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED LITERATURE SECOND SUPPLEMENT AN INVENTORY OF SELECTED MATHEMATICAL MODELS RELATING TO THE MOTOR VEHICLE TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED LITERATURE SECOND SUPPLEMENT Barbara C. Richardson Lawrence D. Segel David C. Roberts Kent B, joscelyn Policy Analysis Division Highway Safety Research Institute The University of Michigan UMI RESMH PRESS Ann Arbor, Michigan Copyright @ 1982 The University of Michigan All Rights Reserved Published by UMI Research Press, an imprint of University Microfilms International, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48106. Printed and bound in the United States of America. Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data An Inventory of selected mathematical models relating to the motor vehicle transportation system and associated literature. "UM-HSR 1-81-27"-Verso of t.p. Includes index. 1. Transportation, Automotive--Mathematical models. I. Richardson, Barbara C., 1947- . ll. University of Michigan. Highway Safety Research Institute. Policy Analysis Division. HE5613.159 Suppl. 2. 388.3'0724 81 ~23062 ISBN 0-8357-0594-3 AACR2 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The contributions of several individuals are grateful ly acknowledged. A number of Highway Safety Research Institute staff were indi spen sa ble in the preparation of this report. Richard A. Dargis wrote summaries of several of the models and reports. Ann C. Grimm of the HSRI Information Center obtained many of the reports that are reviewed in this document. Doris L. Dunger and Eric A. Richter typed the report. James E. Haney contributed to in-process editing. The Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Association (MVMA) supported this study by providing unrestricted gi ft funds, The MVMA Subcmmi ttee on Federal Simulation Models served as an advisory group to the study. Committee members included Sol Drescher, Thomas N. Ronayne, and Neil E. South. Christian H. van Schayk of the MVMA served as secretary to the committee. Without the cooperation, support, and critical reviews provided by these individuals, the report would not have been possible. The responsibility for any errors in this report, however, 1 ies entirely with the authors. Kent B, Joscelyn Barbara C. Richardson Principal Investigator Principal Investigator CONTENTS ACKN0WLE:DGEMENTS ........................ LIST OF MODEL INVENTORY REPORTS ................. LIST OF ASSOCIATED LITERATURE ABSTRACTS ............. 1.0 INTRODUCTION........................ 1.1 Organization of this Volume .............. 1.2 Project Background and Objectives ........... 1.3 Technical Approach .................. 1.4 Format of Information Reported ............ 1.4.1 General Information .............. 1.4.2 Detailed Information on Models ......... 1.4.3 Information on Supporting Literature...... 1.4.4 Indexes .................... 2.0 MODEL INVENTORY REPORTS .................. 3.0 ASNSOCIATED LITERATURE ABSTRACTS .............. 4.0 INIDEXES .......................... 4.1 Model Name ...................... 4.2 Report Title ..................... 4.3 Keyword ........................ 4.4 Personal Author .................... 4.5 Organizational Author ................. 4.6 Sponsor ........................ LIST OF MODEL INVENTORY REPORTS Acc . No . Model Name CRA HEDONIC MARKET SHARE MODEL ............. INTEREST RATES AND THE DEMAND FOR CONSUMER DURABLE GOODS ......................... DISAGGREGATE MODEL OF AUTO-TYPE CHOICE ......... ECONOMETRIC MODEL OF CONSUMER DEMAND FOR NEW AND REPLACEMENT AUTOMOBILES ................ ORNL HIGHWAY GASOLINE DEMAND MODEL ........... LINE AND AREA SOURCE EMISSIONS FROM MOTOR VEHICLES ... HEDONIC MODELS OF AUTOMOBILE PRICES .......... A.T. KEARNEY/WHARTON/NHTSA AUTOMOBILE DEMAND MODEL ... HOUSEHOLD CHOICE AMONG MOTOR VEHICLES ......... HIERARCHICAL DECISION-PROCESS MODEL FOR FORECASTING AUTOMOBILETYPE.CHO1CE ................. CANADIAN AUTOMOTIVE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY ....... MULTI-VARIABLE MODELS OF CAR OWNERSHIP ......... AUTOMOBILE FLEET FUEL EFFICIENCY FORECASTING ...... AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY RESPONSE TO GOVERNMENT RULE.MAKING . SHORT-TERM INTEGRATED FORECASTING SYSTEM (STIFS) .... MOBILE SOURCE EMISSIONS MODEL (MOBILEl) ........ AUTOMOTIVE MANUFACTURER RISK ANALYSIS ......... SEPARABLE CONVEX PROGRAMM ING MODEL FOR AUTOMOB ILE PRODUCTION ....................... ACCIDENT TREND MODEL .................. DEMAND FOR PASSENGER CAR TRANSPORT SERVICES AND FOR GASOLINE ........................ CONAES INTEGRATING 40-SECTOR MODEL ........... WORLD DEMAND FOR GASOLINE ............... ONTARIO LEQ TRAFFIC NOISE PREDICTION METHOD ...... 78-474 CRASH INJURY PREDICTION MODEL ............. 75-497 OISAGGREGATE AUTOMOBILE OWNERSHIP CHOICE ........ 56-526 NEW MOTOR TRUCK DEMAND IN THE UNITED STATES. 1935.1955 . 80-531 PARTIAL ADJUSTMENT MODEL OF GASOLINE DEMAND ...... 75-537 FOREST SERVICE VEHlCLE OPERATING COST MODEL ...... 54-542 MOTOR-CAR PRICING AND DEMAND .............. 70-544 BRAND DEMAND MODEL FOR FARM TRACTORS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM ........................ 78-559 LINEAR AND LOGIT AUTOMOBILE DEMAND MODELS USING SEEMINGLY-UNRELATED ESTIMATION ............. 80-563 HIGHWAY FUEL CONSUMPTION MODEL (HFCM) : NED1UM AND HEAVY-DUTY TRUCK FUEL DEMAND MODULE .......... 69-565 MACHINE-INTENSIVE APPROACH TO LAG DETERMI NATION FOR CONSUMER DEMAND ANALYSIS ................ 75-566 URBAN SIZE AND STRUCTURE AND PRIVATE EXPEND1 TURES FOR GASOLINE ........................ 77-574 ECONOMETRIC APPROACH TO FORECASTING THE MARKET POTENTIAL OF ELECTRIC AUTOMOBILES ........... 80-579 HOUSEHOLD AUTOMOBILE EXPENDITURE ............ 80-584 DOE ALTERNATIVE LIGHT-DUTY TRUCK FUEL ECONOMY MODEL . 79-58' TECHNOLOGY/COST SEGMENT MODEL (TCSM) .......... 73-587 TRANSIT ACCESSIBILITY AS A DETERMINANT OF AUTOMOB ILE OWNERSHIP ....................... 80-600 ENERGY USE IN TRANSPORTATION MODEL (ENTRANS) ...... 56-613 LONG-RUN AUTOMOBILE DEMArID ............... 57-614 LONG-RUN DEMAND FOR AUTOMOBILES ............ 79-634.A FHWA LEVEL 1 HIGHWAY TRAFFIC NOISE PREDICTION MODEL (SNAP 1.0). ...................... 79-634B FHWA LEVEL 2 HIGHWAY TRAFFIC NOISE PREDICTION MODEL (STAMINA 1.0) ..................... 79-642 ELECTRIC VEHICLE WEIGHT AND COST MODEL (EVWAC) ..... 79-644 REGIONAL EMISSIONS PROJECTION SYSTEM (REPS) ...... HEDONIC PRICE INDEXES FOR AUTOMOBILES ......... FIRST PURCHASE AND REPLACEMENT DEMAND FOR PASSENGER CARS .......................... ALTERNATIVE SPECIFICATIONS OF STOCK DEPLETION TO MODEL DEMAND FOR CONSUMER DURABLES .............. EXPLORATORY MODELS OF DOMESTIC AUTOMOBILE DEMAND .... HEDONIC PRICE INDEXES ................. HOUSEHOLD VEHICLE HOLDINGS AND VALUE OF HOLDINGS .... AUTOMOB ILE STYLE CHANGE ................ AUTOMOBILE CONSUMPTION BY STATES. 1940-1950 ...... CONSUMER CAPITAL GOODS PRICE AND QUALITY CHANGE .... EXPLORATION OF AUTOMOBILE QUALITY CHANGE ........ INTERNATIONAL DIESEL ENGINE PRICE COMPARISONS ..... VINTAGE QUALITY CHANGE ................. WEST GERMANY/U.S. HEDONIC TRUCK PRICES......... HEDONIC PRICE INDEXES FOR UNITED KINGDOM CARS ..... AUTOMOBILE CHARACTER1STICS DEMAND ........... QUALITY ADJUSTMENT MODEL OF MARKET SHARES IN OLIGOPOLY . AUTOMOBI LE HEDON IC QUALITY MEASUREMENT ......... LIST OF ASSOCIATED LITERATURE ABSTRACTS Acc. No. Report Title Page PASSENGER CAR FUE:L ECONOMY TRENDS THROUGH 1976. ... LIGHT DUTY AUTOMOTIVE FUEL ECONOMY.. .TRENDS THROUGH 1978. ........................ LIGHT DUTY AUTOMOTIVE FUEL ECONOMY. ..TRENDS THROUGH 1979. ........................ PASSENGER CAR AND LIGHT TRUCK FUEL ECONOMY TRENDS THROUGH 1980. .................... TRANSPORTATION ENERGY CONSERVATION DATA BOOK: EDITION 4 ...................... REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION ENERGY CONSERVATION DATA BOOK: EDITION 1 ................... TRANSPORTATION ENERGY CONSERVATION DATA BOOK: EDITION 3 ...................... TRANSPORTATION ENERGY CONSERVATION DATA BOOK: A SELECTED, ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY: EDITION 3. .... TRANSPORTATION ENERGY CONSERVATION DATA BOOK: A SELECTED, ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY: EDITION 2. .... REGIONAL ANALYSES OF HIGHWAY ENERGY USE ....... TRANSPORTATION ENERGY CONSERVATION DATA BOOK: EDITION 2 ...................... STUDY OF POTENTIAL FOR MOTOR VEHICLE FUEL ECONOMY IMPROVEMENT: POL.ICY ASSESSMENT PANEL REPORT . , . ENERGY POLICY MODELING: A SURVEY .......... CATALOG OF ON-GOING AND RECENTLY COMPLETED STUD IE S OF: 1. MOTOR VEHICLE SALES, 2. VEHICLE MILES TRAVELLED, 3. FUEL CONSUMPTION. ........... FUEL ECONOMY OF AUTOMOTIVE VEHICLES: A COMPENDIUM OF STATISTICAL APPLICATIONS. .............. PROJECTIONS OF DIRECT ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY MODE: 1975-2000 BASELINE. ................. EFFECTS OF FUEL ECONOMY MANDATES AND TAXES ON DRIVERS: IMPACTS BY INCOME GROUPS. ......... 5-78-404 STUDY OF CONSUMER AUTOMOTIVE PREFERENCE WITH REGARD TO FUEL ECONOMY MEASURES. .............. 2 53 COSTS OF URBAN AND SUBURBAN PASSENGER TRANSPORTAT I0N MODES ........................ DEVELOPMENT OF A QUANTITATIVE MEASURE OF "VEHICLE SIZEnn ........................ PROCEED1 NGS ON THE WORKSHOPS ON TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE IN THE U.S. AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY OCTOBER 1977 THROUGH APRIL 1978 AND THE SYMPOSIUM ON TECHNOLOGY, GOVERNMENT AND THE AUTOMOTIVE FUTURE OCTOBER 19-20, U.S. AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY TRENDS FOR THE 1980s--A DELPHI FORECAST ................... REVIEW OF DIESEL COMBUSTION MODELS FOR NOx AND SMOKE EMISSIONS ...................... MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS AND FUEL CONSUMPTION MODELING ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF TRANSPORTATION ENERGY POLICIES ON TRAVEL BEHAVIOR: A PRELIMINARY APPROACH. SOME OUTSTANDING PROBLEMS IN THE CAUSAL MODELING OF CAR OWNERSHIP AT THE LOCAL LEVEL. .........