DECEMBER 1939 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE BUREAU OF FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC COMMERCE WASHINGTON VOLUME 19 NUMBER 12 CONTENTS Volume 19 of the Survey of Current Business SPECIAL ARTICLES No. Page Trend of Long-Term Debts in the United States, 1934-37 .... 1 10 Review of Business Conditions in 1938 2 3 Salient Features of the 1937 Census of Manufactures 3 9 Incomes of Dentists and Osteopathic Physicians 4 7 Capital Movements in the United States Balance of Payments. 5 12 National Income in 1938 at 64 Billion Dollars . 6 10 Alcoholic Beverage Industry Reestablished 7 10 Recent! Developments in Construction Activity 8 9 Trends in Wholesale Volume, 1929-38 9 11 Financial Aspects of Unemployment Compensation Experience. 9 12 The Impact of War on Commodity Prices 10 10 The Depreciation of the Pound Sterling 11 H The Position of United States Shipping 12 8 Capital Expenditures of the Railroads 12 14 TABLES OF NEW OR REVISED STATISTICAL SERIES No. Page No. Page Alcoholic beverages: Failures, commercial, Canada, 1934-38 11 18 Total distilled spirits and whisky, production, tax- Farm wage rates, without board, 1923-38 ] 11 18 paid withdrawals, imports, and stocks, 1901-39 7 15, 16 Federal debt, including non-interest-bearing debt and Fermented malt liquors, production, stocks, and tax- special issues to government agencies, 1916-39 4 16 paid withdrawals, 1901-39 : • • - 7 16 Federal expenditures, general (including recovery and Rectified spirits and wines, production, total, and whisky, relief) revolving funds, transfers to trust accounts, and 1934-39 • 7 17 debt retirements, net, 1931-38 4 17 Indicated consumption for beverage purposes of all Federal receipts, total, 1931-38 4 17 spirits and whisky, 1934-39 7 17 Floor and wall tile, shipments, 1935-39 ...... *. .'. .. 6 18 Still wines, production, stocks, tax-paid withdrawals, Foodstuffs and raw materials, world prices, 1920-38. *. .'. 1 17 and imports, 1901-39. • • • 7 17, 18 Foodstufis and raw materials, world stocks, 1920-38.. 1 17 Sparkling wines, production, stocks, tax-paid with- Hog-corn ratio, 1913-39 6 18 drawals, and imports, 1901-39 7 18 Imports by grand divisions and countries and by economic Automotive replacement battery shipments, indexes, unad- classes and commodities, 1937 ' 4 15 justed and adjusted, 1934-39 8 17 Income payments, 1929-38... 10 15, 16 Beef steers, average wholesale price, 1913-39........ 8 18 Inner tubes, production, shipments, stocks, and exports, Benzol production, 1923-39 H 18 1921-39. 5 17, 18 Butter receipts, five markets, 1919-38 . 3 17 Lard, including neutral lard, exports, 1913-39 11 16 Candy sales by manufacturers, 1928-38 1 17 Manufactures, durable and nondurable, indexes, unadjusted Capital flotations (Commercial and Financial Chronicle) all and adjusted, 1919-38 3 14 series, 1937 and 1938 S 15,16 Meats and meat products, including lard, total exports, Cellulose plastic products, 1935-38 3 18 1913-39 .... 11 16 Cheese, total production, 1920-38. - - 11 17 Milk, standard grade, dealers' price, 1922-39 8 18 Construction contracts awarded (valuation of total build- New loans, estimated volume, by all building and loan ing) 1925-39 11 17 associations, 1936 and 1937 3 16 Construction costs, standard six-room frame house (Federal Passengers carried on electric street railways, 1929-38. ... 3 15 Home Loan Bank Board) 1923-39 6 17 Petroleum and petroleum products, 1937 3 15 Corn, weighted average wholesale price, five markets, Pneumatic casings, production, total shipments, stocks, 1918-39 8 18 shipments of original and replacement equipment, and Corporation profits, 1932-38 4 18 exports, 1921-39. 5 16, 17 Cotton cloth, exports, 1913-39 11 17 Powdered milk, production and stocks, 1918-37 3 17 Cotton cloth mill margins, 1925-39 11 18 Price, average, of United States Treasury bonds, 1931-38.... 3 18 Cotton spindle activity, 1933-38 3 18 Production indexes (Federal Reserve Board), rubber tires Cotton stocks, world total, American cotton (in the United and tubes, unadjusted, 1936-39, and petroleum refining, States and in foreign countries) and foreign cotton, unadjusted and adjusted, 1934-39 8 17 1920-39 8 15, 16 Pullman Company, selected operating statistics, 1913-38.. 1 18 Dollar sales of general merchandise in small towns and rural Sawed timber, exports, 1913-39 10 18 areas, by geographic divisions, adjusted, 1934-39 8 17 Sawmill products, total imports, 1913-39 10 18 Electrical products, orders received and sales billed, 1934-39. 6 18 Stock price indexes, companies producing capital goods Employment and pay roll indexes, unadjusted and adjusted, and consumers' goods, 1926-38 4 18 1934-39 10 17 Washing and ironing machines, sales, 1929-38 10 17 Exports by grand divisions and countries and by economic Wheat stocks in the United States, 1923-39 6 17 ^classes and commodities, 1937 4 14 Yield, average, on United States Treasury bonds, 1919-38 3 18 Volume 19 Number 12 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE HARRY L. HOPKINS, Secretary BUREAU OF FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC COMMERCE JAMES W. YOUNG, Director SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS DECEMBER 1939 A publication of the DIVISION OF BUSINESS REVIEW M. JOSEPH MEEHAN, Chief MILTON GILBERT, Editor TABLE OF CONTENTS SUMMARIES Page CHARTS—Continued Page Business situation summarized 3 Figure 6.—Percent of entrances and clearances in United States Finance , 6 Foreign Trade, by trade routes and nationality of vessels for the Foreign trade 7 year 1938 13 Figure 7.—Net railway operating income and expenditures for con- SPECIAL ARTICLES struction and equipment, 1919-38 14 The position of United States shipping 8 Figure 8.—Unfilled orders of equipment manufacturers, 1920-39... 16 14 Capital expenditures of the railroads Figure 9.—Employment and pay roll indexes, car (electric and steam railroad) and locomotive (other than electric) building CHARTS industries, not including railroad repair shops, 1923-39 17 Figure 1.—Monthly business indicators, 1929-39 2 Figure 2.—New orders for selected commodities, by weeks, 1939.... 3 Figure 3.—Pay rolls in selected durable goods industries, 1937-39.. 4 STATISTICAL DATA Figure 4.—World steam and motor tonnage of ships over 100 gross tons, June 30, 1914 and 1939 8 Monthly business statistics 19 Figure 5.—Zones established under the neutrality act, 1939 12 General index Inside back cover Subscription price of the monthly and weekly issues of the SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS is $2 a year. Single-copy price: Monthly, 15 cent*; weekly, 5 cents. Foreign subscriptions, 33.50. Price of the 1938 Supplement is 40 cents* Make remittances only to Superintendent of Documents, Washington, D. C. 193528—39 1 1 SUKVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS December 1939 Monthly Business Indicators, 1929-39 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INCOME PAYMENTS AND CASH FARM INCOME 140 VOLUME (1823~E5-1OC) MONTHLY INCOME PAYMENTS (1929=100) 120 CASH FARM INCOME (l924~1929»100) 50 *CASH INCOME FROM FARM MARKETINGS (EXCLUSIVE OF RENTAL & BENEFIT PAYMENTS) —w 40 1929 1930 1931 1932 1333 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS AWARDED** FOREIGN TRADE * 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1933 1939 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 FACTORY EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLLS WHOLESALE PRICES AND COST OF LIVING 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 RETAIL SALES * STOCK PRICES 175 AUTOMOBILE SALES (1929~3I»1OO) DEPARTMENT STORE SALES (1923-25=100) 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 * ADJUSTED FOB SEASONAL VARIATION • THREE-MONTH MOVING AVERAGE December 1939 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS Business Situation Summarized NDUSTRIAL output for November was higher than been increased in September under expectations of war- I the average for October when the trend was sharply time prices have receded considerably. Orders for upward. There was, however, not much actual ex- paperboard continued in large volume into October pansion during November from the rate reached at though they subsequently have fallen below production the end of October, and a steadier pace of activity which is exceptionally high. Paper manufacturers generally characterized the economy. This higher rate located in Massachusetts received much smaller orders of production was maintained to some extent at the in October than in September. Cotton-textile mills, expense of unfilled orders, but current backlogs are seemingly sufficient to continue the November rate of WEEKLY AV JAN.-JULY 1939= 100 production to the end of the year against the usual 300 seasonal decline for December. 250 - The slowing of the rise in business activity came after 2 months of swift and substantial readjustments which 200 had raised industrial volumes by about one-fifth and had resulted in material improvement in employment 150 - and consumers' incomes. Factory employment, in- creasing slightly in November, contrary to the custom- ary seasonal decline, was about 6 percent higher than in August on an adjusted basis. An expansion in inventories and some advancement in the placement of contemplated orders for capital goods were the primary WEEKLY AV. JAN.-JULY 1939 = 100 factors responsible for the magnitude of the rise experi- 800 enced since August. New Orders in Smaller Volume. The position of orders relative to production is, of course, somewhat different from industry to industry, but the volume of incoming business has generally fallen off from the recent highs; in many lines orders have dropped to about or below the pre-September volumes. This is a clear indication that the brief period of anticipatory buying based upon expectations of war inflation has run its course for the present at least.