View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Bilkent University Institutional Repository KAZAKHSTAN: TRANSITION TO DEMOCRACY? The Institute of Economics and Social Sciences of Bilkent University by OZAT TOKHTARBAYEV In Partial Fulfilment of the Requirements for the Degree of MASTER OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION in THE DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION BILKENT UNIVERSITY ANKARA September 2001 To my country KAZAKHSTAN: TRANSITION TO DEMOCRACY? A Master’s Thesis by OZAT TOKHTARBAYEV Department of Political Science and Public Administration Bilkent University Ankara September 2001 I certify that I have read this thesis and have found that it is fully adequate, in scope and quality, as a thesis for the Degree of Master of Political Science and Public Administration. -------------------------------- Prof. Dr. Ergun Özbudun Supervisor I certify that I have read this thesis and have found that it is fully adequate, in scope and quality, as a thesis for the Degree of Master of Political Science and Public Administration. ------------------------------- Assis. Prof. Dr. Meryem Kırımlı Examining Committee Member I certify that I have read this thesis and have found that it is fully adequate, in scope and quality, as a thesis for the Degree of Master of Political Science and Public Administration. ------------------------------ Assis. Prof. Dr. Ömer Faruk Gençkaya Examining Committee Member Approval of the Institute of Economics and Social Sciences ------------------------------- Prof. Dr. Kürşat Aydoğan Director ABSTRACT KAZAKHSTAN: TRANSITION TO DEMOCRACY? Tokhtarbayev, Ozat M.A., Department of Political Science and Public Administration Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Ergun Özbudun September 2001 Thıs thesis focuses on the Kazakhstani way of transition to democracy. After having analysed the history of Kazakhstan, the author examines social, national, political and state structures, political leaders and international factors have affected Kazakhstan’s transition to democracy. However, the thesis encompasses future perspectives of the Republic and includes suggestions on what should be done on the subject as well. Keywords: Former Soviet Union, Kazakhstan, Democratic transition. iii ÖZET Kazakistan: Demokrasiye Geçiş Mi? Tokhtarbayev, Ozat Master, Siyaset Bilimi ve Kamu Yönetimi Bölümü Tez Yöneticisi: Prof. Dr. Ergun Özbudun Eylül 2001 Bu çalışma Kazakistan’a özgü demokrasiye geçiş yolu üzerinde yoğunlaşmaktadır. Tez yazarı, Kazakistan tarihini inceledikten sonra, Kazakistan’ın demokrasiye geçiş yolunu etkileyegelen toplumsal, ulusal, siyasal ve devlet yapılarını, siyasal liderlerini ve uluslararası etkenleri ele almaktadır. Bununla birlikte, çalışma Kazakistan’ın gelecek perspektifleri de kapsamakta ve konu üzerinde nelerin yapılması gerektiği ile ilgili önerileri de içermektedir. Anahtar Kelimeler: Eski Sovyetler Birliği ülkeleri, Kazakistan, Demokrasiye geçiş iv TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT................................................................................................................iii ÖZET...........................................................................................................................iv TABLE OF CONTENTS............................................................................................. v LIST OF TABLES .....................................................................................................vii LIST OF FIGURES...................................................................................................viii INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................ 1 CHAPTER I: HISTORICAL REVIEW....................................................................... 6 1.1 The First Kazakh State .................................................................................... 7 1.2 Russian Colonization..................................................................................... 12 1.3 Alash-Orda Government ............................................................................... 19 1.4 Joining the USSR .......................................................................................... 23 1.4.1. The Initial Years.................................................................................... 23 1.4.1.1. The General Trends .................................................................... 23 1.4.1.2. The Kazakh Soviet Apparatus .................................................... 25 1.4.2. The Hard Decades................................................................................ 26 1.4.2.1. The General Trends .................................................................... 26 1.4.2.2. Soviet Policy towards Intelligentsia ........................................... 29 1.4.3 Decades of Economic Revival .............................................................. 30 1.4.3.1 The General Trends ..................................................................... 30 1.4.3.1.1 The Economy of Kazakhstan........................................... 30 1.4.3.1.2 The Kazakhstani society.................................................. 32 1.4.3.2 The Kazakh Apparatchiki ............................................................ 33 1.5 After the Collapse of the Soviet Union ...................................................... 37 1.5.1 General Trends of 1990s ...................................................................... 37 1.5.2 Developments in the Political Arena ................................................... 43 1.5.2.1 The President ............................................................................. 43 1.5.2.2 The Formation of a Multy-Party System................................... 45 1.5.2.3 Non-governmental organizations (NGOs)................................. 67 v 1.5.2.4.GeneralAssessment....................................................................70 CHAPTER II: THEORETICAL ANALYSIS ........................................................... 73 2.1 Social Structure ............................................................................................. 73 2.2 The National Structure .................................................................................. 77 2.3 State Structure ............................................................................................... 82 2.4 Political Structure .......................................................................................... 88 2.5 Political Leadership....................................................................................... 97 2.6 Development Performance .......................................................................... 100 2.7 International Factors.................................................................................... 102 CHAPTER III: FUTURE PROSPECTS.................................................................. 105 3.1 An Authoritarian State................................................................................. 105 3.2 A Democratic State ..................................................................................... 106 3.3 The Middle Way.......................................................................................... 107 CONCLUSION........................................................................................................ 112 SELECT BIBLIOGRAPHY .................................................................................... 116 APPENDICES.......................................................................................................... 121 APPENDIX A. Distribution of Kazakhstani Population by Selected Nationalities 116 APPENDIX B. Parties and Political Organisations in Kazakhstan ......................... 123 vi LIST OF TABLES 1. Changes in Real Average Wage between 1990-1993, (Ruble)........................... 38 2. Changes in Nominal Average Wage in Kazakhstan between 1994-1998............ 38 3. Macroeconomic Indicators (1994-2000).............................................................. 41 4. Distribution of Reel Income among Kazakhstanis (after Taxation), (%) ............ 42 5. Party Composition of the Kazakhstani Supreme Soviet Following the General Election of 1994 ................................................................................................... 47 6. Party Representation in the Parliament of Kazakhstan, December 1995............. 54 7. Freedom Ratings in Kazakhstan, 1992-2000 ....................................................... 57 8. The Results of the Presidential Election, January 10, 1999................................. 60 9. Political Make-up of the Majilis after 1999 Elections ......................................... 63 10. Inward and Outward Migration in Kazakhstan (1990-1997)............................... 78 11. Reasons for the stability in interethnic relations in Kazakhstan .......................... 81 vii LIST OF FIGURES 1. Types of NGO in Kazakhstan .............................................................................. 69 2. Simplified Structure of Decision Making in the USSR (after 1977 Constitution)......................................................................................................... 83 3. Schematic Outline of Decision-Making Environment of Municipal Government in the USSR (after 1977 Constitution)............................................ 85 4. Powers of the President in Kazakhstan...............................................................