Year 2007 UCD—ITS—RR—07—07 A Low-Carbon Fuel Standard for California Part 1: Technical Analysis August 1, 2007 Project Directors Alexander E. Farrell, UC Berkeley Daniel Sperling, UC Davis Contributors S.M. Arons, A.R. Brandt, M.A. Delucchi, A. Eggert, A.E. Farrell, B.K. Haya, J. Hughes, B.M. Jenkins, A.D. Jones, D.M. Kammen, S.R. Kaffka, C.R. Knittel, D.M. Lemoine, E.W. Martin, M.W. Melaina, J.M. Ogden, R.J. Plevin, D. Sperling, B.T. Turner, R.B. Williams, C. Yang Institute of Transportation Studies ◊ University of California, Davis One Shields Avenue ◊ Davis, California 95616 PHONE: (530) 752-6548 ◊ FAX: (530) 752-6572 WEB: http://its.ucdavis.edu/ A Low Carbon Fuel Standard For California 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary.......................................................................................................... 8 1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 17 1.1 Goals................................................................................................................. 18 1.2 Strategies .......................................................................................................... 21 1.3 Why sector-specific strategies for transportation ............................................. 22 1.4 Definitions ........................................................................................................ 24 1.5 Fuel carbon intensity after 2050 ....................................................................... 25 1.6 Structure of this report...................................................................................... 27 1.7 References ........................................................................................................ 27 2 Methods..................................................................................................................... 29 2.1 Baseline ............................................................................................................ 29 2.2 Scope of the standard........................................................................................ 29 2.3 Measuring GHG intensity................................................................................. 31 2.4 Scope of the intensity metric ............................................................................ 32 2.5 Baseline AFCI, 2020 target and compliance pathways .................................... 34 2.6 Compliance paths ............................................................................................. 37 2.7 Mid-GHG and low-GHG biofuels.................................................................... 39 2.8 Life cycle assessment ....................................................................................... 39 2.9 Summary of the WTW analysis........................................................................ 44 2.10 Scenario analysis with the VISION model....................................................... 45 2.11 References ........................................................................................................ 48 3 Fuel Characteristics ................................................................................................. 51 3.1 Fossil hydrocarbon fuels................................................................................... 51 3.2 Biofuels............................................................................................................. 58 3.3 Electricity ......................................................................................................... 68 3.4 Hydrogen .......................................................................................................... 70 3.5 Other environmental issues .............................................................................. 72 3.6 References ........................................................................................................ 72 4 Resources for Low-Carbon Fuels............................................................................ 77 4.1 Biomass resources for low-carbon fuels........................................................... 77 4.2 Natural gas...................................................................................................... 101 4.3 Petroleum and fossil substitutes...................................................................... 102 4.4 Electricity ....................................................................................................... 104 4.5 Hydrogen ........................................................................................................ 107 4.6 References ...................................................................................................... 113 5 Representative scenarios........................................................................................ 117 5.1 Scenario definitions ........................................................................................ 118 5.2 Scenario infrastructure costs........................................................................... 120 5.3 Scenario assumptions ..................................................................................... 123 5.4 Scenario results............................................................................................... 128 5.5 Low-GHG fuels in heavy-duty and off-road applications.............................. 174 5.6 Electrification of off-road diesel fuel applications ......................................... 175 5.7 References ...................................................................................................... 178 A Low Carbon Fuel Standard For California 3 LIST OF TABLES Table ES-1: Potential low-carbon fuel supplies (million gallons of gasoline equivalent per year)..............9 Table ES-2: Scenario results using the VISION-CA model .......................................................................11 Table ES-3: Global Warming Impacts estimated by two LCA models, adjusted for energy at the wheel (g CO2 eq / MJ)......................................................................................................................................13 Table 1-1: California transportation fuel GHG emissions in the baseline year, 2004 ...............................20 Table 1-2: California’s climate change policies and initiatives..................................................................22 Table 1-3: Effect of a $25/MT CO2e price on energy prices .....................................................................23 Table 2-1: Baseline and 2020 target AFCI values ......................................................................................35 Table 2-2: Possible LCFS compliance schedules .......................................................................................38 Table 2-3: Global warming impacts estimated by two LCA models under various assumptions (gCO2-e / MJ) .....................................................................................................................................................47 Table 3-1: Fuels considered in this section................................................................................................51 Table 3-2: GHG emissions from fossil-based transportation fuels............................................................54 Table 3-3: Gross System Power, 2005 (GWh) ..........................................................................................68 Table 4-1: Estimates of current total annual residue biomass in California ..............................................78 Table 4-2: California starch and sugar crop yields, acres harvested, and ethanol potentials.....................84 Table 4-3: Starch and sugar crop land area requirements for in-state ethanol production goals (thousand acres) ..................................................................................................................................................84 Table 4-4: Oil seed crop requirements to meet in-state production goals for conventional biodiesel (thousand acres) .................................................................................................................................85 Table 4-5: California lignocellulosic ethanol potential..............................................................................90 Table 4-6: Characteristics and potential energy of landfilled urban waste in California...........................95 Table 4-7: Theoretical ethanol yields of organic MSW components.........................................................96 Table 4-8: Estimates of annual ethanol or liquid hydrocarbon potential from lignocellulosic fraction of California landfill stream ...................................................................................................................97 Table 4-9: Estimated capital costs for enzymatic cellulose-ethanol process with on-site boiler and turbine/generator ................................................................................................................................98 Table 4-10: PG&E May 2006 residential electricity tariffs and equivalent gasoline prices for PHEVs .105 Table 4-11: Near term hydrogen supply options for California...............................................................108 Table 4-12: Crude oil and hydrogen capacities for California refineries.................................................109 Table 4-13: Industrial hydrogen