Clark Public Utilities Conservation Potential Assessment October 22, 2015 Prepared by: 570 Kirkland Way, Suite 100 Kirkland, Washington 98033 A registered professional engineering corporation with offices in Kirkland, WA and Portland, OR Telephone: (425) 889-2700 Facsimile: (425) 889-2725 October 22, 2015 Mr. Larry Blaufus Clark Public Utilities P.O. Box 8900 Vancouver, Washington 98668 SUBJECT: 2015 Conservation Potential Assessment – Final Report Dear Larry: Please find attached the Final Report summarizing the 2015 Clark Public Utilities Conservation Potential Assessment (CPA). This report covers the time period from 2016 through 2035 (20 years). Significant changes have occurred since the last CPA due to updated measure and appliance standard information. The overall energy efficiency potential is significant, but due to changes in market conditions and measures since the Sixth Power Plan, it is somewhat lower than the previous assessment. We would like to acknowledge and thank you and your staff for the excellent support in developing and providing the baseline data for this project. Best Regards, Gary Saleba President 570 Kirkland Way, Suite 100 Kirkland, Washington 98033 Telephone: 425 889-2700 Facsimile: 425 889-2725 A registered professional engineering corporation with offices in Kirkland, WA and Portland, OR Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................................... 1 BACKGROUND ............................................................................................................................................................... 1 RESULTS ....................................................................................................................................................................... 2 TARGETS AND ACHIEVEMENT ........................................................................................................................................... 5 CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................................................................ 6 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................................... 7 OBJECTIVES .................................................................................................................................................................. 7 ELECTRIC UTILITY RESOURCE PLAN REQUIREMENTS .............................................................................................................. 7 ENERGY INDEPENDENCE ACT ............................................................................................................................................ 8 STUDY UNCERTAINTIES ................................................................................................................................................... 8 REPORT ORGANIZATION .................................................................................................................................................. 9 CPA METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................................................ 11 BASIC MODELING METHODOLOGY .................................................................................................................................. 11 TYPES OF POTENTIAL .................................................................................................................................................... 12 RECENT CONSERVATION ACHIEVEMENT .............................................................................................................. 17 CURRENT CONSERVATION PROGRAMS ............................................................................................................................. 17 SUMMARY .................................................................................................................................................................. 21 CUSTOMER CHARACTERISTICS DATA ................................................................................................................... 22 RESULTS – ENERGY SAVINGS AND COSTS ............................................................................................................. 29 TECHNICAL ACHIEVABLE CONSERVATION POTENTIAL ........................................................................................................... 29 ECONOMIC ACHIEVABLE CONSERVATION POTENTIAL .......................................................................................................... 30 SECTOR SUMMARY ....................................................................................................................................................... 30 COST ......................................................................................................................................................................... 34 SCENARIOS .......................................................................................................................................................... 37 BASE CASE.................................................................................................................................................................. 37 SCENARIOS ................................................................................................................................................................. 37 SAVINGS SHAPE RESULTS ..................................................................................................................................... 41 PEAK DEMAND SAVINGS...................................................................................................................................... 43 SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................................................... 46 METHODOLOGY AND COMPLIANCE WITH STATE MANDATES ................................................................................................ 46 CONSERVATION TARGETS .............................................................................................................................................. 47 SUMMARY .................................................................................................................................................................. 47 REFERENCES ......................................................................................................................................................... 48 APPENDIX I – ACRONYMS .................................................................................................................................... 50 APPENDIX II – GLOSSARY ..................................................................................................................................... 51 APPENDIX III – DOCUMENTING CONSERVATION TARGETS .................................................................................. 53 APPENDIX IV – AVOIDED COST AND RISK EXPOSURE ........................................................................................... 57 APPENDIX V – CPU LOAD AND COINCIDENCE FACTORS ....................................................................................... 66 APPENDIX VI – MEASURE LIST .............................................................................................................................. 68 APPENDIX VII – ENERGY EFFICIENCY POTENTIAL BY END-USE .............................................................................. 76 APPENDIX VIII – MEASURE DETAIL ....................................................................................................................... 78 Clark Public Utilities—Conservation Potential Assessment i List of Tables Table ES-1 Cost-Effective Potential - Base Case (aMW) .......................................................................... 2 Table ES-2 Comparison of 2013 CPA and 2015 CPA Cost-Effective Potential (aMW) ............................. 4 Table 1 Residential Building Characteristics ..................................................................................... 22 Table 2 Commercial Building Square Footage by Segment .............................................................. 23 Table 3 Industrial Sector Load by Segment ...................................................................................... 24 Table 4 Process Shares – Indoor Agriculture Segment ..................................................................... 26 Table 5 Cost-Effective Achievable Potential (aMW) ......................................................................... 30 Table 6 Distribution Efficiency – 20-Year Cost-Effective Achievable Potential ................................ 34 Table 7 Cost for Economic Achievable Conservation Potential ........................................................ 35 Table 8 Cost Scenarios for Base Case Economic Achievable Conservation Potential ...................... 36 Table 9 Cost per MWh Savings (First Year) for Base Case Economic Achievable Potential ............. 36 Table 10 Cost-Effective Achievable Potential – Low Scenario (aMW) ................................................ 38 Table 11 Cost-Effective Achievable Potential – Accelerated Base Scenario (aMW) .......................... 38 Table 12 Cost-Effective