2008 EIGHT-HOUR OZONE ATTAINMENT PLAN FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY FINAL - DECEMBER 2016 SAN DIEGO COUNTY AIR POLLUTION CONTROL DISTRICT 10124 OLD GROVE ROAD SAN DIEGO, CA 92131 1.0 Introduction and Overview 2008 EIGHT-HOUR OZONE ATTAINMENT PLAN FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE 1.0 INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW ...................................................................................1 1.1 Background ..................................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1.1 Ozone ................................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 Health and Welfare Effects .................................................................................................................. 2 1.1.3 National Ozone Air Quality Standards ................................................................................................. 2 1.1.4 Ozone Designation Status..................................................................................................................... 2 1.1.5 Tribal Nations ....................................................................................................................................... 3 1.2 Emission Control Efforts ................................................................................................................................ 3 1.3 Ozone Air Quality Improvement .................................................................................................................... 3 1.3.1 Transported Pollution ........................................................................................................................... 4 2.0 GENERAL ATTAINMENT PLAN REQUIREMENTS .....................................................5 2.1 Emission Inventory ......................................................................................................................................... 6 2.1.1 Inventory Development Process ........................................................................................................... 6 2.1.2 Inventories for 2012 Base Year and 2017 Attainment Year ................................................................. 6 2.1.3 Emission Budgets ................................................................................................................................. 8 2.1.3.1 On-Road Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets for Transportation Conformity ............................. 8 2.1.3.2 Military Growth for General Conformity................................................................................... 8 2.1.3.3 San Diego International Airport Growth for General Conformity ............................................. 9 2.1.3.4 Pre-Baseline Banked Emission Credits .................................................................................... 10 2.1.4 Long-Term Emission Trends .............................................................................................................. 11 2.2 Emission Statement Certification ................................................................................................................. 13 2.3 New Source Review (NSR) .......................................................................................................................... 14 3.0 MODERATE AREA ATTAINMENT PLAN REQUIREMENTS ....................................15 3.1 Emission Control Measures .......................................................................................................................... 17 3.1.1 State and Federal Control Programs .................................................................................................. 17 3.1.2 Local Control Measures ..................................................................................................................... 19 3.2 Reasonably Available Control Measures (RACM) Demonstration .............................................................. 19 3.2.1 RACM Requirements ......................................................................................................................... 19 3.2.2 Identifying Potential RACM for Stationary Sources .......................................................................... 20 3.2.3 Identifying Potential RACM for Transportation Sources ................................................................... 22 3.2.3.1 Implementation Status of Transportation Control Measures.................................................... 25 3.2.3.2 Emission Reduction Potential of Transportation Control Measures ........................................ 30 3.2.4 Identifying Potential RACM for Mobile Sources ............................................................................... 30 3.2.5 RACM Analysis Conclusion............................................................................................................... 31 3.3 Reasonable Further Progress (RFP)............................................................................................................... 31 3.3.1 RFP Requirements .............................................................................................................................. 31 3.3.2 RFP Demonstration............................................................................................................................. 32 2008 Eight-Hour Ozone Attainment Plan Page II 1.0 Introduction and Overview PAGE 3.4 Attainment Demonstration ............................................................................................................................ 33 3.4.1 Background ......................................................................................................................................... 33 3.4.2 Summary of Results ............................................................................................................................ 34 3.4.3 Modeled Attainment Test ................................................................................................................... 35 3.4.3.1 Ozone Representativeness ........................................................................................................ 36 3.4.3.2 Model-Predicted 2017 Design Value ....................................................................................... 36 3.4.3.3 Model Performance Analysis ................................................................................................... 37 3.4.3.4 Unmonitored Area Analysis ..................................................................................................... 37 3.4.4 Weight of Evidence Demonstration .................................................................................................... 37 3.4.4.1 Physical Context ...................................................................................................................... 37 3.4.4.2 Air Quality Trends ................................................................................................................... 38 3.4.4.3 Emission Trends....................................................................................................................... 39 3.4.4.4 Eight-Hour Ozone Design Value Trend Statistical Analysis ................................................... 41 3.4.4.5 Recent Ozone Concentration Increases .................................................................................... 42 3.4.4.6 Meteorological Representative of Recent Years ...................................................................... 45 3.4.4.7 Graphical Representation of Recent Meteorological Conditions and Ozone Concentrations .............................................................................................................. 49 3.4.4.8 Shortened Ozone Season .......................................................................................................... 51 3.4.5 Summary ............................................................................................................................................ 51 3.5 Contingency Measures .................................................................................................................................. 52 4.0 CONCLUSION .......................................................................................................................54 2008 Eight-Hour Ozone Attainment Plan Page III 1.0 Introduction and Overview ATTACHMENTS PAGE Attachment A Emission Inventories for 2012 and 2017 ........................................................... A-1 Attachment B Planned Military Projects Subject to General Conformity .................................B-1 Attachment C Planned San Diego International Airport Projects Subject to General Conformity ........................................................................................C-1 Attachment D ARB Control Measures, 1985 to 2015 .............................................................. D-1 Attachment E ARB Analyses of Key Mobile Source Regulations and Programs providing Emission Reductions .......................................................................... E-1 Attachment F Pre-Baseline Banked Emission Reduction Credits ............................................. F-1 Attachment G Analyses of Potential Additional Stationary Source Control Measures ............ G-1 Attachment H ARB Analyses of Potential Additional Mobile Source Control Measures ....... H-1 Attachment