2 019 PRISMVOL. 8, NO. 3 | 2019 SINGULARITY PRISM VOL. 8, NO. 3 NO. 8, VOL. THE JOURNAL OF COMPLEX OPER ATIONS PRISM ABOUT VOL. 8, NO. 3 2019 PRISM, the quarterly journal of complex operations published at National Defense University (NDU), aims to illuminate and provoke debate on whole-of-government EDITOR IN CHIEF efforts to conduct reconstruction, stabilization, counterinsurgency, and irregular Mr. Michael Miklaucic warfare operations. Since the inaugural issue of PRISM in 2010, our readership has expanded to include more than 10,000 officials, servicemen and women, and practi- tioners from across the diplomatic, defense, and development communities in more MANAGING EDITOR than 80 countries. Ms. Patricia Clough PRISM is published with support from NDU’s Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS). In 1984, Secretary of Defense Casper Weinberger established INSS ASSOCIATE EDITOR within NDU as a focal point for analysis of critical national security policy and Mr. Dale Erickson defense strategy issues. Today INSS conducts research in support of academic and leadership programs at NDU; provides strategic support to the Secretary of Defense, EDITORIAL ASSISTANT Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, combatant commands, and armed services; Ms. Madison Harnett and engages with the broader national and international security communities. COPY EDITOR COMMUNICATIONS PRISM welcomes unsolicited manuscripts from policymakers, practitioners, and Ms. Lisa Yambrick, scholars, particularly those that present emerging thought, best practices, or train- U.S. Government Publishing ing and education innovations. Publication threshold for articles and critiques varies Office Ctr. but is largely determined by topical relevance, continuing education for national and international security professionals, scholarly standards of argumentation, quality of DESIGN writing, and readability. To help achieve threshold, authors are strongly encouraged Ms. Jamie Harvey, to recommend clear solutions or to arm the reader with actionable knowledge. U.S. Government Publishing Office Our review process can last several months. The PRISM editorial staff will contact authors during that timeframe accepting or regretfully rejecting the submis- EDITORIAL BOARD sion. If the staff is unable to publish a submission within four months of acceptance, Dr. Gordon Adams PRISM will revert publication rights to the author so that they may explore other publication options. Dr. Pauline Baker Constructive comments and contributions are important to PRISM. We also wel- Ambassador Rick Barton come Letters to the Editor that are exclusive to PRISM—we do not publish open letters. Dr. Alain Bauer The PRISM editorial staff will contact authors within two months of submission if Dr. Hans Binnendijk they accept the letter for publication. Potential authors can submit their manuscript for blind peer review at <prism@ ADM Dennis Blair, USN (ret.) ndu.edu>. Writing guidelines, tips, and tricks are available at <https://ndupress.ndu. Ambassador James Dobbins edu/Journals/PRISM/>. Dr. Francis Fukuyama DISCLAIMER Ambassador Marc Grossman This is the authoritative, official U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) edition Ambassador John Herbst of PRISM. Any copyrighted portions of this journal may not be reproduced or Dr. Laura Junor (ex officio) extracted without permission of the copyright proprietors. PRISM should be Dr. David Kilcullen acknowledged whenever material is quoted from or based on its content. The opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied Ambassador Jacques Paul Klein within are those of the contributors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Dr. Roger B. Myerson DOD or any other agency of the Federal Government, or any other organization Dr. Moisés Naím associated with this publication. Ambassador Thomas Pickering Dr. William Reno Lt. Gen. John F. Sattler, USMC (ret.) Dr. James A. Schear Dr. Joanna Spear ADM James Stavridis, USN (ret.) Dr. Ruth Wedgwood ISSN 2157-0663 FEATURES 2 Cyber Physical Systems: the Coming Singularity By Marty Trevino 14 On the Worst Day: Resuscitating U.S. Telecommunications for Global Competition By Thomas Donahue 36 Directed Energy Weapons are Real. And Disruptive By Trey Obering 48 Redefining Neuroweapons: Emerging Capabilities in Neuroscience and Neurotechnology By Joseph DeFranco, Diane DiEuliis, and James Giordano 64 Strategic Competition for Emerging Military Technologies: Comparative Paths and Patterns By Michael Raska 82 Minds at War: China’s Pursuit of Military Dominance Through the Cognitive Sciences and Biotechnology By Elsa Kania 102 Killing Me Softly: Competition in Artificial Intelligence and Unmanned Aerial Systems By Norine MacDonald and George Howell 128 The Ethics of Acquiring Disruptive Technologies: Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Weapons, and Decision Support Systems By C. Anthony Pfaff 146 The Challenges Facing 21st Century Military Modernization By Bernard F.W. Loo 158 A Small State Perspective on the Evolving Nature of Cyber Conflict: Lessons from Singapore By Eugene E.G. Tan INTERVIEW 172 “Thinking About What Could Be” General John M. Murray, Commanding General, Army Futures Command BOOK REVIEWS 178 The Future of Leadership: Rise of Automation, Robotics and Artificial Intelligence by Brigette Tasha Hyacinth Reviewed by Ronald Sanders TREVINO The evolution and possible weaponization of Cyber Physical Systems will pose significant challenges to the joint force in the emerging global threat environment. (Nicolle Rager Fuller, National Science Foundation) 2 | FEATURES PRISM 8, NO. 3 Cyber Physical Systems The Coming Singularity By Marty Trevino t this moment, a subtle but fundamental technological shift is occurring that is uniting our digital and physical worlds at the deepest architectural and operational levels. This technological shift will alter the global business, government, military and intelligence ecosystems. It is nothing Aless than a technological singularity and this technology will forever change our world—it is called Cyber Physical Systems (CPS). This ill understood technological singularity is easily dismissed through cognitive error by strategic decisionmakers who are inundated by cries of technological revolution on a weekly basis. Yet, Silicon Valley visionaries, former National Security Agency (NSA) Senior and Technical Officers, and Tier 1 researchers are comparing this technological shift to a “black swan” event and when assessing its effects, are placing it in the “Unknown / Unknown” category of former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld’s quadradic event characterization schema.1 Cyber Physical Systems are at the center of the unification of what have always been distinct physical and virtual worlds. And while the convergence of our physical and virtual worlds is not conceptually new, it is the capability which CPS possess that creates one of the greatest intellectual and technical challenges of our time. Cyber Physical Systems are creating “open systems” able to dynamically reconfigure, reorga- nize and operate in closed loops with often full computational and communication capability. Machine Learning can be fully integrated within a CPS network and this will soon be followed by partial, and even- tually full, Artificial Intelligence—often without the ability of humans to observe the ongoing processes of the system. Cyber Physical Systems are at times even composed of unconventional computational and physical substrates such as Bio, Nano, and Chemical. It is the convergence and morphing of the physical and cyber worlds into multi-agent, intelligent CPS that constitutes nothing less than the technological sin- gularity of our time. Dr. Marty Trevino works for Fortinet in the office of the CISO as the Senior Director of Security Strategy. He previously served as the Technical Director of Mission Analytics for the National Security Agency of the United States. PRISM 8, NO. 3 FEATURES | 3 TREVINO Tech Hype and Buzzwords or the challenges of our time—the concatenation of the Unknown/Unknown virtual and physical worlds into what has become No industry enjoys creating hype more than the tech- known as Cyber Physical Systems (CPS). nology industry. Every new mobile App, computer Cyber Physical Systems represent the coupling program, algorithm, machine learning construct, etc. of two distinct worlds and their subsets to include: is dubbed as revolutionary and destined to change industrial and operational technology, building the world. The reality is that very little of this hype automation, the Internet of Things (IoT), high speed is accurate; but this does not violate the premise that connectivity (4G and soon to be 5G), cloud and “black swans” do exist and when they are discov- machine learning (ML), all made supremely effec- ered, they are highly impactful. CPS is today not tive with feedback loops and within cutting edge only highly impactful and seemingly improbable; new architectures. The term “cyber-physical sys- but in the framing of Rumsfeld, CPS also falls into tems” is generally credited to Helen Gill, Program the Unknown / Unknown category. Simply put, we Director for Computer and Network Systems at the ignore this technological shift at our peril and open National Science Foundation. Gill coined the term the door to our adversaries who do not ignore this somewhere around the year 2006 to characterize shift. the intersection of the physical and cyber worlds. The fact that we are entering a CPS and Internet Cengarle et al., notes that CPS is subject to numer- of