Climate Change Adaptation Planning in Latin American and Caribbean Cities FINAL REPORT: CASTRIES, SAINT LUCIA This page is intentionally blank Climate Change Adaptation Planning for Castries, Saint Lucia Climate Change Adaptation Planning in Latin American and Caribbean Cities A report submitted by ICF GHK in association with King's College London and Grupo Laera Job Number: J40252837 Cover photo: Castries Port as shown from Vigie, May 2012 ICF GHK 2nd Floor, Clerkenwell House 67 Clerkenwell Road London EC1R 5BL T +44 (0)20 7611 1100 F +44 (0)20 3368 6960 www.ghkint.com Climate Change Adaptation Planning for Castries, Saint Lucia Document Control Document Title Climate Change Adaptation Planning in Latin American and Caribbean Cities Complete Report: Castries, Saint Lucia Job number J40252837 Prepared by Climate-related hazard assessment Dr Rawlings Miller, Dr Carmen Lacambra, Clara Ariza, Ricardo Saavedra Urban, social and economic adaptive capacity assessment Dr Robin Bloch, Nikolaos Papachristodoulou, Jose Monroy Institutional adaptive capacity assessment Dr Zehra Zaidi, Prof Mark Pelling Climate-related vulnerability assessment Dr Rawlings Miller, Dr Robin Bloch, Dr Zehra Zaidi, Nikolaos Papachristodoulou, Ricardo Saavedra, Thuy Phung Strategic climate adaptation institutional strengthening and investment plan Dr Robin Bloch, Nikolaos Papachristodoulou, Jose Monroy Checked by Dr Robin Bloch, Nikolaos Papachristodoulou ICF GHK is the brand name of GHK Consulting Ltd and the other subsidiaries of GHK Holdings Ltd. In February 2012 GHK Holdings and its subsidiaries were acquired by ICF International. Climate Change Adaptation Planning for Castries, Saint Lucia Contents Executive summary ............................................................................................................ i Understanding the problem of flooding and landslides .............................................................................i Strategic climate adaptation institutional strengthening and investment plan ......................................... iii 1 Introduction .........................................................................................................1 1.1 About the project ...................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Outline of the report ................................................................................................................. 1 1.3 Context and study area ............................................................................................................ 3 2 Climate-related hazard assessment: floods and landslides ....................................8 2.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 8 2.2 Methodology ............................................................................................................................. 8 2.3 Physical environment ............................................................................................................... 9 2.4 Current coastal flooding hazard ............................................................................................. 16 2.5 Current inland flooding hazard ............................................................................................... 23 2.6 Current landslide hazard ........................................................................................................ 28 2.7 Future hazards ....................................................................................................................... 34 3 Urban, social and economic adaptive capacity assessment .................................. 46 3.1 Urban, social and economic context ...................................................................................... 46 3.2 Methodology ........................................................................................................................... 47 3.3 Economic characteristics ....................................................................................................... 47 3.4 Urban development, spatial expansion and demographic change ........................................ 51 3.5 Distribution and quality of critical infrastructure ..................................................................... 58 3.6 Social and economic impact upon hazards ........................................................................... 61 4 Institutional adaptive capacity assessment ......................................................... 63 4.1 Institutional context ................................................................................................................ 63 4.2 Methodology ........................................................................................................................... 63 4.3 Policy instruments .................................................................................................................. 65 4.4 Institutional mapping .............................................................................................................. 68 4.5 Gaps in existing capacity and opportunities for adaptation ................................................... 69 5 Climate-related vulnerability and risk assessment ............................................... 74 5.1 City profile .............................................................................................................................. 74 5.2 Institutional vulnerability in Castries ....................................................................................... 77 5.3 Landslide and flood vulnerability and risk in Castries ............................................................ 83 6 Strategic climate adaptation investment and institutional strengthening plan ..... 93 6.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 93 6.2 Approach and tools for adaptation planning .......................................................................... 93 6.3 Strategy and adaptation measures ........................................................................................ 95 6.4 Action plan: from measures to action ................................................................................... 105 6.5 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................... 110 7 References ....................................................................................................... 112 Annex 1 Methodology of climate-related hazard assessment ............................... 118 Annex 2 Hazard maps .......................................................................................... 124 Annex 3 Topographic maps .................................................................................. 126 Annex 4 Planning guidelines ................................................................................ 130 Annex 5 Maps of flood and landslide vulnerability ............................................... 132 Climate Change Adaptation Planning for Castries, Saint Lucia Table of tables Table 1.1 Population growth in Castries ............................................................................................. 5 Table 1.2 Estimated population by political constituency ................................................................... 5 Table 1.3 Settlements and their corresponding constituencies and districts ...................................... 6 Table 2.1 Observed 1-day rainfall extreme values (2.33 RP) for two station locations in Saint Lucia, Source: developed using data from Saint Lucia Meteorological Services ........................ 15 Table 2.2 Probability of a tropical cyclone (%) simulated for Barbados and considered a proxy for Saint Lucia. ....................................................................................................................... 19 Table 2.3 Values of 1-day extreme rainfall amounts (2.33 RP) for each level of risk to flooding ..... 27 Table 2.4 Classification of landslides, Source: USGS, 2004 based on Varnes, 1978. .................... 29 Table 2.5 Mean annual precipitation exposure thresholds ............................................................... 33 Table 2.5 Annual temperature projections in 2040 for Saint Lucia under Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 compared to a 1970 to 1999 baseline. ............................................................................. 34 Table 2.6 Annual precipitation (in millimetres) for Saint Lucia under current conditions and future climate change scenarios. Coloured shading denotes where precipitation exceeds landslide risk exposure thresholds. ................................................................................... 34 Table 2.7 Projected change 1-day extreme precipitation (2.33 RP) for George F.L. Charles Airport (mm). ................................................................................................................................. 35 Table 2.8 Summary of the projected change in temperature, precipitation for the 2040s and 1-day extreme precipitation for the 2060s. ................................................................................. 36 Table 2.9 Qualitative summary of change in flood and landslide hazard in Castries by 2040 compared to current levels. ..............................................................................................