Talent Report at Wilkes University A collaboration among Geisinger Commonwealth School of Medicine, Johnson College, Keystone College, King’s College, Lackawanna College, Luzerne County Community College, Marywood University, Misericordia University, Penn State Scranton, Penn State Wilkes-Barre, The Wright Center, University of Scranton & Wilkes University Page | 2 Table of Contents Research Methodology ................................................................................................................................ 4 Report Highlights .......................................................................................................................................... 5 Workforce & Demographic Characteristics ................................................................................................. 6 Economic & Workforce Trends .................................................................................................................. 12 Key Industry Profile: Health Care .............................................................................................................. 17 Key Industry Profile: Retail Trade ............................................................................................................. 20 Key Industry Profile: Manufacturing ........................................................................................................ 23 Key Industry Profile: Transportation, Warehousing & Logistics .............................................................. 26 Key Industry Profile: Accommodation & Food Service ............................................................................ 29 Key Industry Profile: Administrative & Support Services ........................................................................ 32 Key Industry Profile: Construction ............................................................................................................ 35 Key Industry Profile: Finance and Insurance ............................................................................................ 38 The Institute ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..………...40 The Institute is an economic and applied research and consulting group that fulfills two related priorities. The Institute provides customized client solutions and strategies to facilitate decision- making and planning that enhances growth, impact, and sustainability for organizations. The Institute was formed as a unique collaborative of regional higher education institutions and the business community, so it serves a public mission to provide data, analytics, and research to the community at large to improve regional quality of life and standard of living. Teri Ooms, Executive Director Andrew Chew, Senior Research & Policy Analyst Christopher Ritter, Research Analyst Joseph Gallo, Research Assistant Kara McGrane, Research Assistant Jill Avery-Stoss, Data Coordinator Susan Magnotta, Director Community Outreach and Fundraising Saidat Sanni, Graduate Assistant Page | 3 Research Methodology In this report, The Institute for Public Policy and Economic Development analyzes the current and forecasted workforce, industry, and educational profile of Lackawanna and Luzerne Counties and the citizens. By so doing, this report highlights the top sectors and occupations in the region, based on the number of employed workers. Fastest growing industries and occupations are also highlighted, as well as the forecasted job growth, replacement demands, exits, and transfers within these industries. This study provides answers to questions regarding the education and talent demand and supply in the two-county region. This includes the projected job growth, the size of the aging population leaving the workforce, and the number of graduates and skilled workers entering the workforce. The quantitative data sources include JobsEQ, a subscription-based labor market data software, U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES). Page | 4 Report Highlights This report compiles key statistics relating to meeting the current and future workforce challenges in Lackawanna and Luzerne Counties. Workforce Trends • As of 2017, both counties had a total workforce of 262,714 workers. In the next five years, the population distribution by age suggests that both counties could face a net deficit of nearly 9,390 workers. This is because the total number of workers (ages 55 to 64 years) who might be leaving the workforce is higher than the number of people who would be entering the workforce (ages six to 15 years) to replace them. • The labor force participation rate in Lackawanna and Luzerne Counties has consistently remained lower than the rates in the rest of the state and nation. • The region’s higher education infrastructure is an asset in addressing workforce needs. In the 2016- 2017 academic year, a total of 7,747 degrees were awarded by 15 colleges and universities in Lackawanna and Luzerne Counties. Key Industries The following industries were examined in detail due to each comprising a relatively large share of the regional economy. Health Care Retail Trade Employees: 46,639 Employees: 30,469 Average Annual Growth Rate: + 0.8% Average Annual Growth Rate: - 1.0% Forecasted Job Demand, 2018-23: 25,450 Forecasted Job Demand, 2018-23: 19,319 Manufacturing Transportation, Warehousing & Logistics Employees: 26,058 Employees: 23,044 Average Annual Growth Rate: + 0.8% Average Annual Growth Rate: + 6.0% Forecasted Job Demand, 2018-23: 11,093 Forecasted Job Demand, 2018-23: 12,951 Accommodation & Food Service Administrative & Support Services Employees: 20,707 Employees: 16,129 Average Annual Growth Rate: + 1.8% Average Annual Growth Rate: + 2.4% Forecasted Job Demand, 2018-23: 16,538 Forecasted Job Demand, 2018-23: 9,664 Construction Finance and Insurance Employees: 10,891 Employees: 10,417 Average Annual Growth Rate: + 1.4% Average Annual Growth Rate: + 0.8% Forecasted Job Demand, 2018-23: 5,651 Forecasted Job Demand, 2018-23: 4,757 Page | 5 Workforce & Demographic Characteristics Page | 6 Population According to the 2017 Census Bureau estimates, Lackawanna and Luzerne Counties had a combined population of 528,104 people. This makes the Scranton--Wilkes-Barre--Hazleton, PA Metro Area the 100th largest metropolitan area in the United States, with total population of 555,426 residents. Population Change Since 2010, the nationwide population has continued to increase. The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania has also shown population increases, except in 2016. Over the years, Lackawanna and Luzerne Counties have shown some consistency in their total populations. However, both counties saw a combined population decline between 2012 and 2016. The population decline could be attributed to natural causes and migration. Total Population: 2010-2017 Lackawanna & Luzerne Counties Pennsylvania USA 2010 535,355 12,702,379 308,745,538 2011 535,307 12,742,811 311,644,280 2012 535,329 12,768,034 313,993,272 2013 533,420 12,778,450 316,234,505 2014 531,916 12,790,341 318,622,525 2015 529,794 12,791,124 321,039,839 2016 527,673 12,787,085 323,405,935 2017 528,104 12,805,537 325,719,178 Source: Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2017 Estimate Net Migration Lackawanna and Luzerne Counties saw a combined population decrease of 7,252 people from 2010 to 2017. They are two of the 47 counties in Pennsylvania that experienced population declines in that time period. Lackawanna County had a slightly higher decline in population than Luzerne County. The population of Lackawanna County decreased by 3,679, while Luzerne County saw a decline of 3,573 people. The figure below shows that from 2010 to 2017, both counties reported more deaths than births. In the same timeframe, the number of people migrating internationally to and from both counties increased. On the other hand, domestic migrations to and from both counties dropped. 15,905 19,326 2010-2017 22,877 28,829 BIRTHS DEATHS POPULATION CHANGE BIRTHS DEATHS NATURAL -3,679 -3,573 NATURAL MIGRATION LACKAWANNA LUZERNE MIGRATION COUNTY COUNTY -3,032 5,675 -4,873 4,742 DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL Source: Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2017 Estimates Page | 7 Age Distribution of Lackawanna and Luzerne Counties In both counties combined, people between the ages of 50 and 59 years are the most represented in the population. This trend has remained consistent since 2010. Age Distribution of Lackawanna and Luzerne Counties 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% <10 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70 and Over 2010 2016 Source: Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimate (2012-2016) Shifting Demographics Over 10 Years As of 2017, both counties had a total workforce of 262,714 workers. In the next five years, the population distribution by age suggests that both counties could face a net deficit of nearly 9,390 workers. This is because the total number of workers (ages 55 to 64 years) who might be leaving the workforce is higher than the number of people who would be entering the workforce (ages six to 15 years) to replace them. Incoming Workers Outgoing Workers (Population ages 6-15) (Population ages 55-64) 64,981 74,371 Five-Year Employment Growth In the past five years, both counties combined have seen a net employment growth of more than 6,000 – an increase of 2.4 percent. Page | 8 Employment Growth in Lackawanna and Luzerne Counties: 2013-2018 258,000 253,833 254,000 250,000 247,818 246,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018