() Stantec Dartford Local Plan Strategic transport modelling Stage 3 –Local Plan option testing methodology On behalf of Project Ref: 46416/001 | Rev: AA | Date: February 2021 Registered Office: Buckingham Court Kingsmead Business Park, London Road, High Wycombe, Buckinghamshire, HP11 1JU Office Address: T: E: Stage 3 – Local Plan option testing methodology () Stantec Dartford Local Plan - Strategic transport modelling Document Control Sheet Project Name: Dartford Local Plan – Strategic Transport Modelling Project Ref: 46416-5501 Report Title: Stage 3 – Local Plan option testing methodology Date: 23rd February 2021 Name Position Signature Date Prepared by: Gary Heard Senior Associate 23-02-2021 Reviewed by: Gary Heard Senior Associate 23-02-2021 Approved by: Gary Heard Senior Associate 23-02-2021 For and on behalf of Stantec UK Limited Revision Date Description Prepared Reviewed Approved This report has been prepared by Stantec UK Limited (‘Stantec’) on behalf of its client to whom this report is addressed (‘Client’) in connection with the project described in this report and takes into account the Client's particular instructions and requirements. This report was prepared in accordance with the professional services appointment under which Stantec was appointed by its Client. This report is not intended for and should not be relied on by any third party (i.e. parties other than the Client). Stantec accepts no duty or responsibility (including in negligence) to any party other than the Client and disclaims all liability of any nature whatsoever to any such party in respect of this report. J:\46416 - GH - Dartford Local Plan (SATURN)\BRIEF 5501 - Transport\REPORTS\Stage 3 methodology ii v09.docx Stage 3 – Local Plan option testing methodology () Stantec Dartford Local Plan - Strategic transport modelling Contents 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Dartford Cordon of the Lower Thames Area Model (DCLTAM) .................................... 1 1.3 Local Plan preferred option ........................................................................................... 2 1.4 This document ............................................................................................................... 2 2 Traffic generation ..................................................................................................................... 3 2.2 TRICS - residential (houses) trip generation rates ........................................................ 3 2.3 TRICS - residential (flats) trip generation rates ............................................................. 5 2.4 TRICS - B1a/b office and research trip generation rates .............................................. 6 2.5 TRICS - B1c industrial processes ................................................................................. 8 2.6 TRICS - B8 warehousing trip generation rates ........................................................... 10 2.7 TRICS - B8 parcel distribution trip generation rates .................................................... 11 2.8 TRICS - Retail trip generation rates ............................................................................ 13 2.9 TRICS - Leisure trip generation rates.......................................................................... 15 2.10 TRICS – Hospitality trip generation rates .................................................................... 20 3 Mode share data ..................................................................................................................... 24 3.2 2011 census ................................................................................................................ 24 3.3 2011 journey to work census data mode share – Dartford residents .......................... 24 3.4 2011 journey to work census data mode share – Dartford employees ....................... 26 3.5 2011 census data summary ........................................................................................ 29 3.6 TRICS mode share ...................................................................................................... 29 3.7 TRICS mode share – residential (houses) .................................................................. 29 3.8 TRICS mode share – residential (flats) ....................................................................... 30 3.9 TRICS mode share – B1a/b office and research ........................................................ 31 3.10 TRICS mode share – B1c industrial processes .......................................................... 32 3.11 TRICS mode share – B8 warehousing ........................................................................ 34 3.12 TRICS mode share – B8 parcel distribution ................................................................ 34 3.13 TRICS mode share – Retail ........................................................................................ 35 3.14 TRICS mode share – Leisure ...................................................................................... 37 3.15 TRICS mode share – Hospitality ................................................................................. 39 4 Mode shift scenarios .............................................................................................................. 42 4.2 Context ........................................................................................................................ 42 4.3 Mode shift scenarios.................................................................................................... 43 4.4 Mode shift scenario 1 – Standard TRICS .................................................................... 43 4.5 Mode shift scenario 2 – Core mode shift assessment ................................................ 44 4.6 Mode shift scenario 3 – High mode shift assessment ................................................. 45 4.7 Achieving the proposed mode shift ............................................................................. 45 4.8 Smarter Choices (2004) .............................................................................................. 45 4.9 Sustainable Travel Towns ........................................................................................... 47 J:\46416 - GH - Dartford Local Plan (SATURN)\BRIEF 5501 - Transport\REPORTS\Stage 3 methodology iii v09.docx Stage 3 – Local Plan option testing methodology () Stantec Dartford Local Plan - Strategic transport modelling 4.10 Fastrack ....................................................................................................................... 48 4.11 Travel trends ................................................................................................................ 48 5 Land use quanta ..................................................................................................................... 51 5.2 Local Plan preferred option quanta ............................................................................. 51 5.3 Comparison with Reference Case ............................................................................... 51 6 Potential traffic generation .................................................................................................... 53 6.2 Site locations ............................................................................................................... 53 6.3 Local Plan preferred option generation ....................................................................... 53 6.4 Comparison with Reference Case (AM peak hour) ..................................................... 54 6.5 Comparison with Reference Case (PM peak hour) ..................................................... 55 7 Distribution ............................................................................................................................. 57 7.2 Principles ..................................................................................................................... 57 7.3 Methodology ................................................................................................................ 57 7.4 Local Plan preferred option vehicle matrix .................................................................. 59 Appendices A Residential TRICS data B B1a / b office TRICS data C B1c industrial TRICS data D B8 warehousing TRICS data E B8 parcel distribution TRICS data F Retail - shopping centre – local shops TRICS data G Retail park including food TRICS data H Leisure park TRICS data I Leisure centre TRICS data J Leisure – cinema TRICS data K Hotel TRICS data L Pub / Restaurant TRICS data M Land use schedule N Traffic generation J:\46416 - GH - Dartford Local Plan (SATURN)\BRIEF 5501 - Transport\REPORTS\Stage 3 methodology iv v09.docx Stage 3 – Local Plan option testing methodology () Stantec Dartford Local Plan - Strategic transport modelling 1 Introduction 1.1.1 Stantec have been appointed by Dartford Borough Council (DBC) to provide strategic modelling evidence in support of their emerging Local Plan. The current Dartford Local Plan comprises the Core Strategy 2011 and the Development Policies Plan 2017. 1.1.2 The Council is carrying out a review of its Local Plan, with a time horizon for the Local Plan of 2036. On current information, DBC consider that the existing permissions and identified sites will be capable of delivering the new homes required to meet local housing need. On this basis, considerations