To: MPR's Morning Edition From: Mark Seeley, Univ. of Minnesota Extension, Dept of Soil, Water, and Climate Subject: Minnesota WeatherTalk for Friday, January 4, 2008 HEADLINES: -Jet Streaming podcast this week -A music contest continues -The January Thaw -Weekly Weather Potpourri -The snow season so far -Almanac for January 4th -Oddities in our temperature climatology -The Cloud Bar -Outlook Topic: On this week's "Jet Streaming" podcast This week's podcast, available at the MPR web site, includes a discussion about the weather and climate headlines of 2007. What were some of the most significant events and consequences? What evidence of climate change surfaced? The weather geeks all take a turn at such topics and Cathy Wurzer has another interesting web site of the week. You can listen at the following web sites....... http://minnesota.publicradio.org/radio/programs/morning_edition/ or http://minnesota.publicradio.org/radio/podcasts/jet_streaming/ Topic: A music contest for your consideration.... If you are an MPR "Morning Edition" listener, you may have noticed that we've been trying out some new music to introduce our conversations about the weather on Friday mornings. For many years we played Mark O'Connor's fiddle tune, "Soppin' the Gravy," but we feel it's time for something new. We are experimenting with new tunes. If you like any of the new ones, or you prefer the old one, we'd like to know. You could even compose something yourself and play it into our answering machine if you're so inspired. We are looking for a short musical introduction with a lively start and a strong finish that is in tune with Mark's personality. If you have any ideas, call the Morning Edition comment line at 651-290-1080. If your piece of music is selected as the new theme for Friday's WeatherTalk segment, Mark will send you a signed copy of his book "Minnesota Weather Almanac." Topic: The January Thaw - A variable feature of the Minnesota climate Most residents of the Twin Cities area consider the January thaw to be a given each year. They know it will come, just not precisely when. This time it comes early with the Saturday through Tuesday period expected to see daily highs above the freezing mark. file:///G|/2008/WeatherTalk_2008-01-04.txt[9/22/2015 4:02:16 PM] Indeed for many central and southern Minnesota locations a January thaw is quite common. The definition of a January thaw is variable. Some consider it to be any single day with a temperature above 32 degrees F. But consequences associated with a January thaw, like loss of snow cover, melting and drying of street surfaces and sidewalks, softening of lake ice, etc are generally not realized unless temperatures rise above the freezing mark for two or more days. Using this as a sorting criteria we can look at the historical frequency of such temperatures for various locations in Minnesota. These frequencies of January thaws (listed below) indeed show great reliability in most of southern Minnesota, and even parts of central Minnesota, but more like a 50/50 probability in the northern sections of the state. Historical frequency of January thaws at various locations since 1948 (here defined as two or more days with daytime temperatures greater than 32 F) Twin Cities 92 percent Rochester 95 percent Pipestone 92 percent Fairmont 93 percent St Cloud 87 percent Morris 80 percent Crookston 62 percent Duluth 60 percent International Falls 50 percent It is interesting to note that the three consecutive years of 1977, 1978, and 1979 brought no January thaw to most of Minnesota. All three were dominated by abundant January snow cover and are ranked among the top 15 coldest Januarys in state history. The last year without a January thaw in most places was 1994. Topic: Weekly Weather Potpourri..... Locally in the Twin Cities, the Active Life and Running Club (ALARC) achieved a world record on New Year's Day with 689 people taking the Lake Minnetonka plunge. This is believed to be a new record for the number of people diving into a frozen lake at one event. Elsewhere a heavy New Year's Eve snowfall, up to 8 inches or more, disrupted most celebrations in eastern Canada. It was reported that officials cancelled a number of public events in Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, and New Brunswick as a result of the snow storm. It appears that the Weather Channel is up for sale. It was reported this week that the current owner, Landmark Communications, is interested in selling one of the last privately owned cable stations. One of the most successful cable stations, it may be worth as much as $5 billion. The Weather Channel is based in Atlanta, GA. Speaking of Atlanta, the National Weather Service reported this week that a year ending rain in the city prevented the driest year on record there. Prolonged drought in 2007 was threatening to break the all-time driest record from 1954 (31.82 inches), but four consecutive days of rain to end the year brought the 2007 total precipitation up to 31.87 inches, still only about 63 percent of normal for that city. Also in the SE USA a cold snap and frost occurred in the citrus and vegetable growing areas of Florida. Sprinkler irrigation was used to protect some of the crops and it appears that damage was not extensive. Many growers hustled ahead of the frost to pick mature fruit from the trees. A cold spell hit parts of India this week and was blamed for up to 50 deaths, mostly among the homeless and slum dwellers. New Delhi fell to 36 degrees F on Wednesday, but some northern parts of the country reported lows in the teens and twenties F. file:///G|/2008/WeatherTalk_2008-01-04.txt[9/22/2015 4:02:16 PM] Government officials were taking steps to curb further deaths by opening shelters, distributing blankets and encouraging the use of roadside bonfires to keep warm overnight. Scientists reported this week that one of the drivers of climate change overlooked in the recent international talks in Bali is that of aviation emissions. Some project that the effect of aviation emissions is up to five times that of ground transportation. Apparently there was little discussion about curbing aviation emissions compared to other features of climate change. It was also reported by scientists this week that it may be possible to design a new fuel cell that utilizes the action of bacteria in breaking down organic waste to make electricity. Almost any form of waste will do. Called the microbial fuel cell (MFC), NASA scientists and others are working on the research needed to develop efficient biofilm anodes. MPR listener question: Given that December brought over 18 inches of snowfall to the Twin Cities, is it likely that will be our snowiest month for this winter? Answer: There are two ways of answering this question climatologically: How often is December the snowiest month in the Twin Cities and how often is our maximum monthly snowfall for the winter season 18 inches or greater? Since 1884 (a period of 123 years) December has been the snowiest month of the season 23 times, a little less than 20 percent of the time. The last time this happened was the winter of 2000-2001 when it snowed over 30 inches in December. Nevertheless, historically December is the snowiest month about one out of every five years, but when the total snowfall has exceeded 18 inches it has been the snowiest month 11 out of 12 years. Another way of looking at it is to note that the snowiest month of the year has exceeded 18 inches only 39 times in the last 123 years, about one third of the time. So regardless of the month, 18 or more inches of snowfall is a great deal and very likely not to be surpassed. There have been only 7 snow seasons when two months recorded 18 inches or more of snowfall, and only one when three months recorded over 18 inches of snowfall (winter of 1961-62). Thus, the historically probability suggests a greater than 90 percent chance that December of 2007 will be the snowiest month of the season for the Twin Cities. Twin Cities Almanac for January 4th: The average MSP high temperature for this date is 21 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 5 degrees F (plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation). MSP Local Records for January 4th: MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 41 degrees F in 1898 and 2007 (Pioneer Era shows 42 degrees F in 1839 and 1858); lowest daily maximum temperature of -10 degrees F in 1924; lowest daily minimum temperature of -23 degrees F in 1924 (Pioneer Era shows -32 degrees F in 1834 and 1884); highest daily minimum temperature of 33 F in 2007. Record rainfall file:///G|/2008/WeatherTalk_2008-01-04.txt[9/22/2015 4:02:16 PM] for this date is 0.57 inches in 1997. Record snowfall is 6.0 inches in 1910. Average dew point for January 4th is 5 degrees F, with a maximum of 37 F in 1946 and a minimum of -39 degrees F in 1924. All-time state records for January 4th: The state record high temperature for this date is 50 degrees F at Worthington (Nobles County) in 1930. The state record low temperature for this date is -48 degrees F at Breese (Marshall County) and Leech Lake (Cass County) in 1896, and at Red Lake Falls (Red Lake County) in 1968.