STRONGMEN AND STATE AUTHORITY: A STATE- IN- SOCIETY APPROACH TO UNDERSTANDING THE PRESENCE OF TERRORIST SANCTUARIES by MELIA T. PFANNENSTIEL B.S., Central Methodist University, 2006 M.A., Kansas State University, 2008 AN ABSTRACT OF A DISSERTATION submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Department of Security Studies College of Arts and Sciences KANSAS STATE UNIVERSITY Manhattan, Kansas 2015 Abstract The goal of this dissertation is two-fold. First, is to investigate the relationship between the consequences of state failure and terrorist sanctuaries, which is the prevailing explanation in extant literature. Post 9/11 United States counterterrorism policy has focused on the role of the state in providing safe haven or sanctuary to transnational terrorist organizations. However, anecdotal evidence suggests that both weak and strong states host terrorist sanctuaries. Thus, no clear explanation for why transnational terrorist sanctuaries are in some weak and strong states but not present in others currently exists. Second, this dissertation seeks to fill this gap by adopting Migdal’s (1988) state-society interaction approach to explain the presence of terrorist sanctuaries. This dissertation hypothesizes that the role of society’s structure and societal strongmen’s interactions with the state are an important determinant in whether or not transnational terrorist organizations will seek to establish safe haven within a given territory. Sageman’s (2008) hub and node approach on the operational capacities of transnational terrorist sanctuary networks helps to explain differences in types of sanctuaries. Using a newly constructed dataset on terrorist sanctuaries for quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis through case studies, this dissertation intends to show that the presence of terrorist sanctuaries in both weak and strong states can be understood through four state-society interaction typologies. The implications of this study are relevant for policymakers seeking to understand and counter the enduring threat of transnational terrorism across the globe. STRONGMEN AND STATE AUTHORITY: A STATE- IN- SOCIETY APPROACH TO UNDERSTANDING THE PRESENCE OF TERRORIST SANCTUARIES by MELIA T. PFANNENSTIEL B.S., Central Methodist University, 2006 M.A., Kansas State University, 2008 A DISSERTATION submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Department of Security Studies College of Arts and Sciences KANSAS STATE UNIVERSITY Manhattan, Kansas 2015 Approved by: Major Professor Emizet Kisangani, PhD Copyright MELIA T. PFANNENSTIEL 2015 Abstract The goal of this dissertation is two-fold. First, is to investigate the relationship between the consequences of state failure and terrorist sanctuaries, which is the prevailing explanation in extant literature. Post 9/11 United States counterterrorism policy has focused on the role of the state in providing safe haven or sanctuary to transnational terrorist organizations. However, anecdotal evidence suggests that both weak and strong states host terrorist sanctuaries. Thus, no clear explanation for why transnational terrorist sanctuaries are in some weak and strong states but not present in others currently exists. Second, this dissertation seeks to fill this gap by adopting Migdal’s (1988) state-society interaction approach to explain the presence of terrorist sanctuaries. This dissertation hypothesizes that the role of society’s structure and societal strongmen’s interactions with the state are an important determinant in whether or not transnational terrorist organizations will seek to establish safe haven within a given territory. Sageman’s (2008) hub and node approach on the operational capacities of transnational terrorist sanctuary networks helps to explain differences in types of sanctuaries. Using a newly constructed dataset on terrorist sanctuaries for quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis through case studies, this dissertation intends to show that the presence of terrorist sanctuaries in both weak and strong states can be understood through four state-society interaction typologies. The implications of this study are relevant for policymakers seeking to understand and counter the enduring threat of transnational terrorism across the globe. Table of Contents List of Figures ................................................................................................................................ ix List of Tables .................................................................................................................................. x Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................ xi Dedication ..................................................................................................................................... xii Chapter 1 - Introduction .................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 The Question ......................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 The Argument ....................................................................................................................... 3 1.3 Scope and Significance of the Study .................................................................................... 5 1.4 Plan for the Dissertation ....................................................................................................... 9 Chapter 2 - Literature Review ....................................................................................................... 11 2.1 Conceptual Issues: Terrorism and Terrorist Sanctuaries .................................................... 11 2.2 Literature Review: Terrorist Sanctuaries ............................................................................ 15 2.2.1 State Failure and Terrorism ......................................................................................... 16 2.2.2 Strong States and Terrorism ......................................................................................... 23 2.2.3 Capacities of Terrorist Sanctuaries .............................................................................. 25 2.2.4 A Critical Overview of Extant Literature .................................................................... 27 Chapter 3 - Theoretical Development ........................................................................................... 31 3.1 State-Society Interactions and Sanctuaries ......................................................................... 31 3.1.1 Strong State, Strong Society: Polyarchical Polity ........................................................ 38 3.1.2 Strong State, Weak Society: Pyramidal Polity ............................................................ 41 3.1.3 Weak State, Strong Society: Diffused Polity ............................................................... 47 3.1.4 Weak State, Weak Society: Anarchical Polity ............................................................. 50 Chapter 4 - Quantitative Methods ................................................................................................. 54 4.1 Research Design and Methodology .................................................................................... 54 4.1.1 Operational definitions ................................................................................................. 54 a. Dependent variable........................................................................................................ 55 b. Independent variables. .................................................................................................. 58 c. Control variables ........................................................................................................... 62 4.2 Analysis of the Statistical Results ....................................................................................... 65 vi 4.3 Discussion of Findings ........................................................................................................ 71 Chapter 5 - Qualitative Methods ................................................................................................... 75 5.1 Qualitative Research Design ............................................................................................... 78 5.1.1 Structured, Focused Comparison ................................................................................. 78 5.1.2 Process Tracing ............................................................................................................ 81 5.2 Case Selection ................................................................................................................. 84 5.2.1 United States ............................................................................................................ 86 5.2.2 Germany ................................................................................................................... 87 5.2.3 Iraq ........................................................................................................................... 88 5.2.4 Democratic Republic of Congo ............................................................................... 88 Chapter 6 - The United States ......................................................................................................