IPCS Issue Brief 38 September 2006 AKBAR BUGTI AND AFTER IMPLICATIONS FOR BALOCHISTAN & PAKISTAN D Suba Chandran Assistant Director Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies Akbar Bugti’s killing in a military Bugti become a rallying point for operation during the last week of Baloch nationalism? Will his killing August 2006 has raised many issues, trigger an armed movement against including questions about the future the security forces? Is the opposition of Pakistan’s federal structure and likely to unite and wage a political suggestions of the downfall of Gen struggle against Musharraf? Finally, is Musharraf, internal political disorder there an external conspiracy in what is and external intervention leading to an happening in Balochistan? Is there a independent Balochistan. How far are role for India? these assertions credible? Will Akbar I BALOCH NATIONALISM WILL AKBAR BUGTI BECOME THE RALLYING POINT? Akbar Bugti was never in the forefront nationalism, amongst many factors of Baloch nationalism, when was expressed more by tribal compared to other Baloch leaders like resistance and tribal honour.” Will Khair Bux Marri or Ataullah Mengal. Akbar Bugti’s killing become the He remained primarily a Bugti, rallying point for the Balochis? Is the fighting for his own tribe, and in line between Pakistan and Balochistan particular his sub tribe. Bugti was not really drawn? Will Balochistan become only respected and admired, but also another East Pakistan? Will there be a hated and despised, even by his own Baloch tribal resistance to defend their sub clans. His death, however, seems honour? to have changed the position of Akbar Bugti. Many believe that Musharraf Three factors would determine the has made him a hero. answers for the above questions. First, how strong is the Baloch triumvirate – Ataullah Mengal made an important Bugti-Mengal-Marri--without Akbar observation: Bugti's death has drawn a Bugti. Khair Bux Marri, Ataullah line between Balochistan and Pakistan. Mengal and Akbar Bugti, the much Some commentators even compared it respected and feared leaders of the with the events of 1971 and hinted that three major Balochi tribes formed a Balochistan was becoming East triumvirate at the apex level, support Pakistan. The Daily Times mentioned by their respective tribes. Today, the in its editorial that “Baloch Bugtis are themselves divided, thanks INSTITUTE OF PEACE AND CONFLICT STUDES B-7/3, Safdarjung Enclave, New Delhi 91-11-4100 1900 (Tel); 91-11-4165 2560 (Fax) IPCS Issue Brief 38 September 2006 to the oppressive and narrow policies change. Much would depend on the pursued by Akbar Bugti. Since the “tribal resistance” based on concepts killing of his son, Salal Bugti, in June of honour and revenge. 1992, Akbar Bugti carried out a vendetta against the sub clans of Third, there is no adequate political or Kalpars and Masuris, uprooting them material support from external from Dera Bugti, not allowing them to powers. This would play an important return. Since January 2006, the military role in taking the Baloch separatist regime has initiated a drive to movement further. Any comparison rehabilitate the Kalpars and Masuris, with East Bangladesh should consider and facilitate their return to Dera this important point. The Baloch Bugti, mainly to undermine Akbar grievances may be comparable to that Bugti’s hold over the entire Bugti tribe. of the East Pakistan, but without an Those who are being resettled openly active external support, Baloch support Musharraf. The Bugti jirga, nationalism leading to an independent just preceding Akbar Bugti’s death, Balochistan is unlikely. was part of this initiative. There have also been reports that the Bugti family What will Bugti's killing then bring itself stands divided in finding a about? It may lead to emergence of successor to Akbar Bugti and the pan-Balochi nationalism, which would division of his huge property. These prove costly for Pakistan over the long stories may be planted, but cannot be run. The Balochis will not forgive ruled out. Pakistan for killing Bugti. What he could not achieve in his life, he may Second, the movement is not cohesive, have achieved by his death. All this but is divided by tribal loyalties. The may occur over the long run; but there Bugtis till recently fought primarily for is no clear indicator that such a their own rights, and not for any pan- development is taking place now, that Baloch cause. More jobs and increased might lead to the creation of an royalties for the Sui gas to the Bugtis independent Balochistan. were their main demands. As late as three years ago, the Bugtis were On the other hand, if Islamabad fighting the other tribes in Balochistan. decides to adopt a serious political Akbar Bugti could not reconcile approach, this could have a positive himself to the Marris and Mengals impact. If the military regime allows after the 1973 rebellion. The Marris the two Parliamentary Committees on and Mengals for their part did not Balochistan to work and takes a back trust Akbar Bugti either. seat by stopping military operations, a political solution is possible. Such a course would not remove the sense of Unfortunately, Baloch nationalism has alienation and deprivation, but would not transcended tribal rights and still create a dent in the demand for an sentiments. There is some involvement independent Balochistan. of the middle class, but it is not substantial. This may or may not 2 AKBAR BUGTI AND AFTER: IMPLICATIONS FOR BALOCHISTAN AND PAKISTAN II WILL THE BALOCH ARMED MOVEMENT INTENSIFY? Sardar Atalluah Mengal angrily have been numerous disappearances, responded “back to the mountains” to with more than 800 Balochis being a question posed where they would go held by the security/intelligence after his party members resigned from agencies. It is unfortunate that the the Balochistan Legislative Assembly. international community has failed to The Balochistan Liberation Army take notice of human rights violations (BLA) is waging guerilla warfare in in Balochistan, giving Pakistan’s the mountains. Are the Baloch security forces a free hand. The nationalists likely to join the BLA? Is Human Rights Commission of Akbar Bugti’s death likely to intensify Pakistan (HRCP) made a valiant the armed movement against attempt, especially after the December Islamabad? The following factors 2005 campaign to highlight these would determine the success of an atrocities. armed movement, ultimately leading to an independent Balochistan. Third, there is no external material First, the strength and composition of support for the Baloch armed the BLA. It consists primarily of movement. An armed struggle against Marris, though other tribes are an established state requires funding, reported to have joined the BLA. training, safe havens and an arms pipe Fortunately for the security forces in line from a country bordering the Pakistan, the armed movement in region where the armed conflict is Balochistan is divided in terms of the taking place to succed. Lack of support Bugtis and the rest. Most of the attacks for the BLA or any other Balochi carried out in Dera Bugti, especially in armed movement would be their and around Sui, were undertaken by greatest drawback in fighting a Bugti tribesmen close to Akbar Bugti. sustained war against the Pakistani Until the BLA transcends from being a security forces. Marri militia, it is unlikely to threaten the Pakistani security forces. On the The resistance has not become a full other hand, there are reports fledged armed movement so far. On indicating that the BLA is slowing the other hand, it has slowed down as down its activities in the recent evident from surrenders, and fewer months, after being proactive in 2004 pitched battles and attacks on security and 2005. There have been numerous installations. Unless there is a strong surrenders and no pitched battles in external involvement, supported by recent months, though there were international concerns voiced many explosions and attacks on gas regarding the human rights situation pipelines. In the second half of 2006, in Balochistan, the armed movement is there have been a series of surrenders unlikely to achieve its ultimate end – by the Bugti and Marri tribesmen. an independent Balochistan. There may be a series of attacks and Second, the State is going full throttle, explosions all over Balochistan, but with no regards for human rights. The that is acceptable to Islamabad. State has used heavy weapons and aerial bombing to fight the BLA. There 3 INSTITUTE OF PEACE AND CONFLICT STUDES B-7/3, Safdarjung Enclave, New Delhi 91-11-4100 1900 (Tel); 91-11-4165 2560 (Fax) III WILL BUGTI’S KILLING DESTABILIZE THE MUSHARRAF REGIME? WILL IT CREATE INSTABILITY AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL? It was commented that Akbar Bugti’s Assembly and launch a national killing would mark the beginning of campaign since Akbar Bugti’s death, the end for Gen Musharraf and that which is yet to materialize. Chaudhry the opposition parties would come Shujaat Hussain made an interesting together, leading to political instability calculation - if 20 PPP members at the national level. Are these events resigned, he would also resign to likely to happen? show his solidarity for Balochistan and Bugti. After three weeks of Bugti’s Political developments both in killing, only one person belonging to Balochistan and at the national level in the BNP has resigned from the Pakistan do not reveal that Gen Parliament. Musharraf’s position has become unstable or that the internal political Second, there is a clear divide between situation is heading towards anarchy. Punjab and Balochistan, with little or It may ultimately, but not yet. Akbar no sympathy in Punjab over the death Bugti’s killing is unlikely to be a of Akbar Bugti. While the strikes catalyst to trigger such a political called by the parties and groups in development for the following Balochistan and Karachi were reasons.