Peace and Security in 2020 Overview of EU action and outlook for the future STUDY EPRS | European Parliamentary Research Service Lead author: Elena Lazarou Members' Research Service PE 652.041 – September 2020 EN Peace and Security in 2020 Overview of EU action and outlook for the future This is the third Peace and Security Outlook produced by the European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS). The series is designed to analyse and explain the contribution of the European Union to the promotion of peace and security internationally, through its various external policies. The study provides an overview of the issues and current state of play. It looks first at the concept of peace and the changing nature of the geopolitical environment, in light of global shifts of power and of the impact of the coronavirus crisis. It then follows the logic of the annual series, by focusing on the promotion of peace and security in the EU's external action. Linking the study to the Normandy Index, which measures threats to peace and democracy worldwide based on the EU Global Strategy, each chapter of the study analyses a specific threat to peace and presents an overview of EU action to counter the related risks. The areas discussed include violent conflict, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, climate change, cyber-attacks, disinformation, and terrorism, among others. The EU's pursuit of peace is understood as a goal embodied in several EU policies, including development, democracy support, humanitarian assistance, security, and defence. The study concludes with an outlook for the future. A parallel study, published separately, focuses specifically on EU peace- building efforts in the Sahel. The studies have been drafted as a contribution to the Normandy World Peace Forum in October 2020. EPRS | European Parliamentary Research Service AUTHORS Elena Lazarou, with contributions from Naja Bentzen, Alina Dobreva, Beatrix Immenkamp, Tania Latici, Velina Lilyanova, Eric Pichon, Martin Russell, Branislav Stanicek and Ionel Zamfir, Members' Research Service, EPRS. Research assistance, Tessa Fardel. Graphics produced by Samy Chahri and Nadejda Kresnichka-Nikolchova. This paper is an updated version of Peace and Security in 2019, published in May 2019 in advance of the Normandy Peace Forum 2019. It has been drawn up by the Members' Research Service, within the Directorate- General for Parliamentary Research Services (EPRS) of the Secretariat of the European Parliament. To contact the authors, please email: [email protected] LINGUISTIC VERSIONS Original: EN Translations: DE, FR Manuscript completed in August 2020. DISCLAIMER AND COPYRIGHT This document is prepared for, and addressed to, the Members and staff of the European Parliament as background material to assist them in their parliamentary work. The content of the document is the sole responsibility of its author(s) and any opinions expressed herein should not be taken to represent an official position of the Parliament. Reproduction and translation for non-commercial purposes are authorised, provided the source is acknowledged and the European Parliament is given prior notice and sent a copy. Brussels © European Union, 2020. Photo credits: © fotomaster / Adobe Stock. PE 652.041 ISBN: 978-92-846-7004-8 DOI:10.2861/22 CAT: QA-04-20-452-EN-N [email protected] http://www.eprs.ep.parl.union.eu (intranet) http://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank (internet) http://epthinktank.eu (blog) Peace and Security in 2020 Executive summary The promotion of global peace and security is a fundamental goal and central pillar of European Union (EU) external action, following the model of its own peace project. Both within and beyond the EU, there is a widespread expectation among citizens that the Union will deliver results in this crucial area. Nevertheless, the deteriorating security environment of the past decade has posed significant challenges. Following the release of its Global Strategy in 2016, and in line with the wording and spirit of the Lisbon Treaty, the EU has been intensifying its work in pursuit of peace and security in a number of key policy areas. According to the Global Peace Index, the state of peace in the world deteriorated in 2019, reflecting the instability that characterises the geopolitical environment. In addition, multilateralism, a core element in the EU's foreign policy and identity, and a cornerstone of its approach to peace and security, is under increasing pressure from alternative value systems and ideologies, not least due to the effects of the novel coronavirus pandemic. The coronavirus crisis has accelerated pre-existing trends, which were signalling the advent of a more competitive international geopolitical environment, characterised by great power rivalries and the weakening of multilateral security guarantees. In response to these trends, the new European Commission under President Ursula von de Leyen inaugurated in 2019, with the support of the new European Parliament elected in the same year, has committed to empowering the EU's external action. Its fundamental goals remain those stipulated by the founding Treaties, including the achievement of peace. The over-arching values and objectives of the EU guide all facets of its external action, including common foreign and security policy (CFSP); democracy support; development cooperation; economic, financial and technical cooperation; humanitarian aid; trade; and neighbourhood policy. As envisaged by the Lisbon Treaty, the 2016 Global Strategy introduced several elements to refine and improve the EU's efforts, including the promotion of resilience and capacity-building in the world. While the promotion of peace remains the objective of EU foreign policy, achieving it is also linked to understanding peace and its components. Thus, measuring peace and the threats that challenge it is becoming an increasingly relevant exercise. In that context, the Normandy Index attempts to measure threats to peace based on variables identified in the EU Global Strategy. The European External Action Service (EEAS) itself is conducting a comprehensive threat analysis in 2020, as part of the plans to develop an EU Strategic Compass. The EU's contribution to countering threats to peace, security and democracy globally has been growing significantly through legislation, financing and the creation of new structures and initiatives. A significant share of EU aid goes to fragile states and to issues related to securing peace. The EU's 'new consensus on development' emphasises the role of development cooperation in preventing violent conflicts, mitigating their consequences and aiding recovery from them. The new consensus clearly focuses on fragile and conflict-affected countries, which are the main victims of humanitarian crises. On the ground, the EU has been able to strengthen the nexus between security, development and humanitarian aid through the implementation of comprehensive strategies, for example in the Horn of Africa and in the Sahel. Through the CSDP, the EU runs 17 missions and operations, making it one of the United Nation's main partners in peacekeeping. In 2019, the EU advanced its work on countering new threats to peace, such as disinformation, cyber-attacks and climate change. New elements strengthening EU security and defence capabilities, launched under the previous European Commission and European Parliament legislature, are being implemented with the aim of boosting EU strategic autonomy, including its capacity to work for peace and security. These elements of 'hard power', together with the EU's long- I EPRS | European Parliamentary Research Service standing experience in the practice of soft power, form the backbone of its action for peace and security. The EU also continues to work multilaterally on the global and regional levels to counter global threats, such as the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, terrorism and global health crises, including the economic consequences of the coronavirus pandemic across the world. A consistent focus in the EU's work is on its neighbourhood, with the aim of building resilience and upholding peace and democracy, both challenged by the implications of the health crisis. Looking to the future, the global environment is expected to grow in complexity, not least because of the effects of the coronavirus pandemic. New threats, such as cyber-attacks, disinformation and foreign influence campaigns, demand new types of multifaceted responses. While the EU has made significant progress in furthering its aim of strengthening its presence and efficiency in the area of peace and security, more remains to be done. The proposals for the post-2020 multiannual financial framework (MFF), which focus on streamlining the EU's various programmes and instruments, would allow for sufficient flexibility to respond to unforeseen threats, while also implementing innovative financial instruments. Underlying the quest for flexibility, efficiency and innovation is the strategic goal of empowering the EU in its global role as a promoter of peace and security, while adapting to the new realities of the international order and the rapid technological, environmental and societal changes of our times. Strategic autonomy and foresight capabilities will be invaluable tools in achieving this objective. II Peace and Security in 2020 Table of contents 1. Introduction ________________________________________________________________ 1 1.1. Peace and security in the face of coronavirus ____________________________________