Appendix 4.1 PORIRUA COMMERCIALLY Client: FEASIBLE RESIDENTIAL Project No: CAPACITY ASSESSMENT Date: SCHEDULE Code Date Information / Comments Project Leader 51670.7 May 2019 Report Tim Heath / Phil Osborne DISCLAIMER 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION ..................................................................... 6 1.1. KEY RESEARCH OBJECTIVES ............................................. 8 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................... 10 3. POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD FORECASTS ........................... 12 4. DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILING ................................................... 15 5. PROJECTED HOUSING TYPE DEMAND ..................................... 17 6. RESIDENTIAL SALES SYNOPSIS ............................................ 20 6.1. SALES PRICE POINT ANALYSIS ....................................... 20 6.2. REGIONAL COMPARISON OF SALES DATA ........................ 24 7. RESIDENTIAL BUILDING CONSENTS ...................................... 26 8. VISITOR DEMAND ................................................................ 27 9. UNOCCUPIED DWELLINGS .................................................... 29 10. RESIDENTIAL FEASIBILITY MODELLING ................................. 30 10.1. THEORETICAL CAPACITY ............................................ 30 10.2. FEASIBLE CAPACITY MODELLING ................................ 31 10.3. FEASIBLE CAPACITY OUTPUTS .................................... 39 10.4. REALISABLE CAPACITY OUTPUTS ................................ 40 10.5. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS ............................................. 43 APPENDIX 1: DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILING ..................................... 45 APPENDIX 2: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS TABLES .............................. 48 3 LIST OF TABLES TABLE 1 - PORIRUA CITY POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS ......................... 12 TABLE 2 - USUALLY OCCUPIED AND EMPTY DWELLINGS – 2013 CENSUS ........................ 29 TABLE 3 – PORIRUA THEORETICAL RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT CAPACITY BY SUBURB ... 30 TABLE 4 – PORIRUA STANDALONE BUILD VALUE / SQM BY SUBURB ............................... 33 TABLE 5 – PORIRUA TERRACED BUILD VALUE / SQM BY SUBURB ................................... 34 TABLE 6 – PORIRUA APARTMENT BUILD VALUE / SQM BY SUBURB ................................. 34 TABLE 7 – PORIRUA AVERAGE SALES / CV BY SUBURB .................................................. 36 TABLE 8 – PORIRUA STANDALONE BUILD COST BY SUBURB .......................................... 37 TABLE 9 – PORIRUA TERRACED BUILD COST BY SUBURB .............................................. 38 TABLE 10 – PORIRUA APARTMENT BUILD COST BY SUBURB ........................................... 38 TABLE 11 – PORIRUA PER DWELLING DEVELOPMENT COSTS ......................................... 39 TABLE 12 – PORIRUA FEASIBLE RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT CAPACITY BY SUBURB – OWNER AND DEVELOPER ........................................................................................... 40 TABLE 13 – PORIRUA GREENFIELD DEVELOPMENT CAPACITY ......................................... 41 TABLE 14 – DEVELOPER REALISABLE PROFIT RATES ..................................................... 41 TABLE 15 – PORIRUA REALISABLE RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT CAPACITY BY SUBURB .... 42 TABLE 16 – FEASIBLE CAPACITY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS............................................... 43 TABLE 17 – REALISABLE CAPACITY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS ........................................... 44 4 LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1: PORIRUA DISTRICT GEOSPATIAL EXTENT ...................................................... 7 FIGURE 2 PORIRUA CITY POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS .......................... 14 FIGURE 3: ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE ................................. 15 FIGURE 4: PORIRUA CITY HOUSEHOLD STRUCTURE COMPOSITION FORECAST 2018 – 2048 .............................................................................................................................. 18 FIGURE 5: PORIRUA CITY GROWTH 2017 - 2048 BY HOUSEHOLD STRUCTURE ................. 19 FIGURE 6: MEDIAN QUARTERLY RESIDENTIAL HOUSE SALE PRICE TRENDS 2000 – 2016 .. 20 FIGURE 7: PORIRUA RESDIENTIAL SALES VOLUME ....................................................... 21 FIGURE 8: PORIRUA CITY MEDIAN RESIDENTIAL SALES 1993 - 2017 ............................. 22 FIGURE 9: PORIRUA CAU 2016/17 MEDIAN SALES PRICE .............................................. 23 FIGURE 10: WELLINGTON REGION MEDIAN RESIDENTIAL SALES 1993 – 2017 ............... 24 FIGURE 11: PORIRUA CITY NEW RESIDENTIAL BUILDING CONSENTS 2000 - 2017 ........... 26 FIGURE 12: PORIRUA CITY MONTHLY GUEST NIGHTS (2003 – 2017) .............................. 27 FIGURE 13: PORIRUA CITY MONTHLY OCCUPANCY RATE (2003 – 2017) .......................... 28 FIGURE 14: PROPERTY ECONOMICS RESIDENTIAL FEASIBILITY MODEL OVERVIEW .......... 32 FIGURE 15 – PORIRUA LAND VALUE / SQM SCALE ........................................................ 35 5 1. INTRODUCTION 6 7 1.1. KEY RESEARCH OBJECTIVES • • • • • • • • 8 2.1 INFORMATION & DATA SOURCES • • • • • • • • • • 9 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 10 11 3. POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD FORECASTS Net # Net % Scenario 2018 2021 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 Growth Growth 2018-2048 2018-2048 High 57,800 59,660 63,700 66,200 68,300 70,200 72,100 14,300 25% Population Medium 56,600 57,620 59,500 60,300 60,600 60,500 60,400 3,800 7% .id 56,900 59,960 68,700 75,500 80,200 82,800 85,400 28,500 50% High 19,700 20,600 22,400 23,700 24,800 25,800 26,900 7,200 37% Households Medium 19,300 19,900 21,100 21,700 22,200 22,600 23,000 3,700 19% .id 18,300 19,380 22,400 24,700 26,500 27,600 28,700 10,400 57% High 2.93 2.90 2.84 2.79 2.75 2.72 2.68 -0.25 -9% Houshold Size Medium 2.93 2.90 2.82 2.78 2.73 2.68 2.63 -0.31 -10% .id 3.11 3.09 3.07 3.06 3.03 3.00 2.98 -0.13 -4% High - 1.07% 0.92% 0.78% 0.63% 0.56% 0.54% - - Population growth Medium - 0.60% 0.41% 0.27% 0.10% -0.03% -0.03% - - (p.a.) .id 1.79% 2.16% 1.98% 1.25% 0.65% 0.63% High - 1.52% 1.13% 1.16% 0.93% 0.81% 0.85% - - Household growth Medium - 1.04% 0.79% 0.57% 0.46% 0.36% 0.35% - - (p.a.) .id 1.97% 2.29% 2.05% 1.46% 0.83% 0.80% 1 The Statistics NZ and Forecast id population and household projections are only available up to the year 2043 for population figures and 2038 for household numbers and as such have been extrapolated out to 2048 by Property Economics. 12 13 90,000 85,400 82,800 80,200 80,000 75,500 72,100 70,200 68,700 68,300 70,000 66,200 59,960 63,700 59,660 60,000 57,800 60,600 53,700 59,500 60,300 60,500 60,400 50,400 57,620 49,200 56,900 50,000 53,700 56,600 50,400 49,200 40,000 27,600 28,700 24,700 26,500 30,000 22,400 26,900 24,800 25,800 23,700 22,400 Population and Households and Population 19,700 20,600 17,800 20,000 16,000 16,550 22,200 22,600 23,000 21,100 21,700 19,300 19,900 17,800 16,000 16,550 18,300 19,380 10,000 - Population High Population Medium Population .id Households High Households Medium Households .id 14 4. DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILING 40% 38% 35% 35% 30% 28% 25% 20% 18% 18% 18% 18% 15% 14% 15% 15% 13% 12% 11% 11% 9% 9% 9% 10% 8% 5% 0% $20,000 or Less $20,001–$30,000 $30,001–$50,000 $50,001–$70,000 $70,001–$100,000 $100,001 or More HOUSEHOLD INCOME Porirua City Wellington Region New Zealand • 15 • • • • 16 5. PROJECTED HOUSING TYPE DEMAND 17 FIGURE 4: PORIRUA CITY HOUSEHOLD STRUCTURE COMPOSITION FORECAST 2018 – 2048 30,000 28700 27600 27,000 26500 20% 24700 19% 5,680 5,440 24,000 19% Single 5,130 22400 19% 4,640 21,000 18% 19380 4,150 29% 18300 Couple (Without Children) 29% 8,530 18,000 18% 29% 8,000 18% 3,570 28% 7,660 3,320 7,060 27% 15,000 6,270 26% Family (With Children) 26% 5,270 12,000 4,850 Forecast Household Growth Household Forecast 37% 36% 9,000 37% 10,260 38% 9,710 10,040 39% 9,190 Single Parent (With Children) 8,470 39% 39% 7,460 6,000 7,180 3,000 Other Multiperson 13% 13% 13% 13% 14% 14% 14% 3,270 3,440 3,540 3,620 2,570 2,650 3,020 - 2018 2021 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 Source: Property Economics, PDC 18 FIGURE 5: PORIRUA CITY GROWTH 2018 - 2048 BY HOUSEHOLD STRUCTURE 30,000 28,710 22,690 1,790 21,950 27,000 1,720 21,120 1,650 3,870 24,000 1,550 3,720 20,200 3,550 Apartment 1,410 3,280 21,000 19,360 2,970 18,290 1,220 18,000 1,170 2,560 2,410 15,000 Terraced 12,000 23,050 Forecast Dwelling Demand Dwelling Forecast 22,170 21,300 19,860 9,000 18,020 15,590 14,720 6,000 Standalone 3,000 - 2018 2021 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 Source: Statistics NZ, Property Economics 19 6. RESIDENTIAL SALES SYNOPSIS 6.1. SALES PRICE POINT ANALYSIS FIGURE 6: MEDIAN QUARTERLY RESIDENTIAL HOUSE SALE PRICE TRENDS 2000 – 2016 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 Median QuarterlyResidential Dwelling SalesPrice ($) $100,000 $- 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Property Economics, Core Logic 20 350 300 250 200 Source: Property Economics, Core Logic Core Economics, Property Source: FIGURE FIGURE 150 7 : PORIRUA RESDIENTIA PORIRUA : QuartlyResidential Sales Volume 100 50 L SALES VOLUME SALES L 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 21 FIGURE 8: PORIRUA CITY MEDIAN RESIDENTIAL SALES 1993 - 2017 Source: Property Economics, Core Logic 22 FIGURE 9: PORIRUA CAU 2016/17 MEDIAN SALES PRICE 23 6.2. REGIONAL COMPARISON OF SALES DATA FIGURE 10: WELLINGTON REGION MEDIAN RESIDENTIAL SALES 1993 – 2017 24 25 7. RESIDENTIAL BUILDING CONSENTS FIGURE 11: PORIRUA CITY NEW RESIDENTIAL BUILDING CONSENTS 2000 - 2017 300 21 28 29 250 47 50