Electrically Powered Transport- the rise, the fall, and the rise again U3A , Wellington City 4th September, 2018 4/09/2018 MBA565 Lecture 6 Innovation in Transport 1 A talk in five parts……… • 1) Transport • 2) Henry Ford and all that • 3) Who killed the electric car? • 4) Who revived the electric car? • 5) Where are we going? 4/09/2018 MBA565 Lecture 6 Innovation in Transport 2 Part 1) Transport 4/09/2018 MBA565 Lecture 6 Innovation in Transport 3 Transport is important because it enables communication and trade between people, which is essential for the development and maintenance of civilizations. Virtually everything you buy has been transported, in many cases around the globe 4/09/2018 MBA565 Lecture 6 Innovation in Transport 4 Transportation • Transport, and the movement of people and goods from one place to another, is fundamental to our way of life. In the earliest times it was limited to what we could carry:- and there are parts of the world where this is still the case 4/09/2018 MBA565 Lecture 6 Innovation in Transport 5 Then we used animals:- 4/09/2018 MBA565 Lecture 6 Innovation in Transport 6 But, as population centres grew larger relying on animals brought serious problems: Their working life was only about 2 years By the 1880s there was traffic chaos in the larger cities They were And their waste products were a dreadful not treated problem that large cities found almost well insurmountable 4/09/2018 MBA565 Lecture 6 Innovation in Transport 7 Consider how big was the problem of horse’s waste products? At 10 kg per day of solid waste and 20 litres per day of liquid waste (per horse)... And with 200, 000 horses in New York City in 1880. .. there was approximately 2000 tonnes of solid waste per day and 4000 tonnes of liquid waste. Every day of the year. And in 1885 15000 dead horses were removed from the streets of New York. The noise, the smell, the flies and the disease was appalling. The coming of mechanised transport was seen by many as4/09/2018 a blessing. MBA565 Lecture 6 Innovation in Transport 8 First mechanised transport 1884 – La Marquise steam car This 127 year old steam car is still in 1885- Benz Motorwagen, the first roadworthy and operable condition First practical electric car, built car to go into production with an (France) by Thomas Parker in 1884 internal combustion engine (England) (Germany) 4/09/2018 MBA565 Lecture 6 Innovation in Transport 9 What drove the choice of motive power? As we have seen, in the 1890s motive power came from a mix of sources, including electric, steam-power, and the internal combustion engine (ICE) In 1899 and 1900 the land speed record was held by a Battery powered car, subsequently by steam powered and then by internal combustion engine cars And up to about 1910 it was not clear which power source would dominate 4/09/2018 MBA565 Lecture 6 Innovation in Transport 10 The first hybrids, the Lohner-Porsche First production hybrid car, 1900 Semper Vivus 10–14 hp, 2 or 4 hub-mounted electric motors; Twin in-wheel electric motors, two 2.5 hp driven by battery and/or petrol engine. single cylinder IC engines, driving two 1.8 kW generators, charging a 44-cell Pb acid Weight of 4WD model, about 3.5 tonnes battery “ 4/09/2018 MBA565 Lecture 6 Innovation in Transport 11 The low power density and short life of lead-acid batteries was well known but in 1901 Edison developed the hugely reliable Ni-Fe battery. However, it was too little, too late…… the ICE was already dominating Bailey Electric that competed a 1,000-mile endurance run in 1910 using Edison storage batteries 4/09/2018 MBA565 Lecture 6 Innovation in Transport 12 Four developments/trends led to the dominance of the internal combustion engine 2. Model T assembly line; a major Wikipedia contributor to minimising the cost of cars, i.e. In 1909 a Model T was $850, by 1920 it was $260 1. Electric starter; first production vehicle National Geographic Good Roads Campaign, ca 1916 was the 1912 Cadillac 4. As car ownership Waldronexhaust.com 3. Muffler ca 1910 increased, the national movements to build improved intercity roads were pursued more vigorously University of North Carolina Carolina of North University 4/09/2018 MBA565 Lecture 6 Innovation in Transport 13 Also, electric buses and lorries were widely available 1906, the London Electric Bus Co 1914 Walker Electric Truck 4/09/2018 MBA565 Lecture 6 Innovation in Transport 14 Part 2) Henry Ford and all that 4/09/2018 MBA565 Lecture 6 Innovation in Transport 15 Henry Ford …. • Henry Ford, more than any other person, is associated with the success of the motor car and the rise of the American motor industry 4/09/2018 MBA565 Lecture 6 Innovation in Transport 16 Main achievements: - the use of the assembly line - the design of the Model-T Ford 4/09/2018 MBA565 Lecture 6 Innovation in Transport 17 Model-T Ford production and price Production in thousands of cars Price in dollars 1910 1915 1920 1925 4/09/2018 MBA565 Lecture 6 Innovation in Transport 18 Rise of the automobile, New York 5th Avenue 1900 1910 Clara Ford’s Detroit Electric runabout 4/09/2018 MBA565 Lecture 6 Innovation in Transport 20 Part 3) The revival, and then the fall of the electric car Two documentaries; 2006, Who killed the electric car 2011 Revenge of the electric car 4/09/2018 MBA565 Lecture 6 Innovation in Transport 21 By 1920 the ICE totally dominated the market as the vehicle engine of choice. But, there were (are) consequences……………….. 4/09/2018 MBA565 Lecture 6 Innovation in Transport 22 Impacts of Transport • Transport, particularly using fossil fuels, is responsible for many and serious health impacts, and over a million road deaths a year • Fossil fuels contribute to carbon dioxide emissions and climate change • And it can be/is responsible for high levels of pollutions 4/09/2018 MBA565 Lecture 6 Innovation in Transport 23 And then there is pollution…………….. 4/09/2018 MBA565 Lecture 6 Innovation in Transport 24 Los Angeles, 1980 4/09/2018 MBA565 Lecture 6 Innovation in Transport 25 And people made jokes about it! "There's so much pollution in the air now that if it weren't for our lungs there'd be no place to put it all.“— Robert Orben“ “Fall is my favorite season in Los Angeles, watching the birds change color and fall from the trees."— David Letterman ‘We've got to pause and ask ourselves: How much clean air do we need?"— Lee Iacocca 4/09/2018 MBA565 Lecture 6 Innovation in Transport 26 And it is still a problem Beijing, 2010 Delhi, 2017 By the 1980’s, the smog in LA had become so bad that in the California Air Resources The ZEV mandate required the 7 major Board (CARB) passed the Zero-emissions automobile suppliers in the US to offer zero vehicle (ZEV) mandate emission vehicles, i.e. electric vehicles, if they wished to continue sales of their gasoline-powered vehicles in California. Developments in battery technology now made this a more feasible option than was the case in 1900. Most companies offered modified versions of their existing models. However, in 1996 GM’s answer was the EV1 4/09/2018 MBA565 Lecture 6Treehugger Innovation in Transport 28 The EV1, what happened to it? The EV1 was the first mass- produced and purpose-designed electric vehicle of the modern era from a major automaker: • 0 to 100km/h 8 sec • Max speed 130km/h • Weight 1400kg • Range 70 to 100 miles • Originally Pb acid batteries Later, NiMH batteries It all seemed very positive, Treehugger But back in Washington the oil companies and car manufacturers were intensively lobbying against the ZEV mandate……. 4/09/2018 MBA565 Lecture 6 Innovation in Transport 29 Lobbying by the motor and oil industry was successful and everything went back to business as usual. In 1999 production was halted and in 2003 all EV1 cars were recalled, (they had only ever been leased to their owners) and the great majority crushed for scrap. As a result, the EV1 is possibly the rarest car from the 1990’s In 2006, former GM Chairman and CEO Rick Wagoner stated that his worst decision during EV1.org his tenure at GM was "axing the EV1 electric- car program 4/09/2018 MBA565 Lecture 6 Innovation in Transport 30 Part 4) Who revived the electric car? 4/09/2018 MBA565 Lecture 6 Innovation in Transport 31 Following the EV1 the next successful electric car came out of Japan… 4/09/2018 MBA565 Lecture 6 Innovation in Transport 32 What was happening at Toyota? In 1993 Eiji Toyoda, Toyota’s Chairman, expressed concern about the future of the automobile in the face of high oil prices and “peak oil”. Executive VP Akihiro Wada was made responsible for the Global 21 project aimed at substantially improving the fuel economy of Toyota cars. He made two critical decisions: Lionel Lionel 141 • he appointed Takeshi Uchiyamada as the project leader, and Eiji Toyoda, 1913 to 2013 • in 1994 he supported his engineers’ HYBRID concept against the advice of his marketing and business managers. •(HYBRID HAS A COMBINATION OF ICE AND ELECTRIC PROPULSION) 4/09/2018 MBA565 Lecture 6 Innovation in Transport 33 The result was the Prius In December 1997 the Prius went on sale in Japan and sold 18000 in the first year. In May 1999 it went on sale in America selling 5600 in the first year and 15600 in the second year.