The changing Broads…? A summary of the Broads Climate Adaptation Plan 2016 CLIMATE Join the debate Contents 1 The changing Broads page 4 2 The changing climate page 4 3 A climate-smart response page 5 4 Being climate-smart in the Broads page 6 5 Managing flood risk page 12 6 Next steps page 18 Table 1 Main climate change impacts and preliminary adaptation options page 7 Table 2 Example of climate-smart planning at a local level page 11 Table 3 Assessing adaptation options for managing flood risk in the Broads page 14 Published January 2016 Broads Climate Partnership Coordinating the adaption response in the Broads Broads Authority (lead), Environment Agency, Natural England, National Farmers Union, Norfolk County Council, local authorities, University of East Anglia Broads Climate Partnership c/o Broads Authority 62-64 Thorpe Road Norwich NR1 1RY The changing Broads... This document looks at the likely impacts of climate change and sea level rise on the special features of the Broads and suggests a way forward. It is a summary of the full Broads Climate Adaptation Plan prepared as part of the UK National Adaptation Programme. To get the best future for the Broads and those who live, work and play here it makes sense to start planning for adaptation now. The ‘climate-smart’ approach led by the Broads Climate Partnership seeks to inspire and support decision makers and local communities in planning for our changing environment. It is supported by a range of information and help available through the Broads oCommunity initiative (see page 18). ‘Big skies’ at Horsey Mere and windpump The changing Broads... ? A summary of the Broads Climate Adaptation Plan 3 1 The changing Broads 2 The changing climate The Norfolk and Suffolk Broads is a unique and We all notice the changes in our day-to-day internationally important wetland. A member of the weather and short-term variations in our climate, UK family of National Parks, the Broads is such as the recent winter storm events. designated for its landscape, nature conservation Climate change science, on the other hand, analyses and cultural features. It is enjoyed by its residents the average weather trends or cycles at a particular and millions of visitors for its tranquil, ‘big skies’ place over much longer periods of time, generally landscape and recreational opportunities on land around 30-50 years. and on 200km of navigable waterways. Climate science has been evolving for decades, The Broads is a dynamic, living landscape, shaped using evidence from the past and computer over centuries by nature, people and climate. Over modelling to project what is likely to happen in the the next century it will continue to change. In future. While climate prediction modelling is particular, its low-lying nature and closeness to extremely complex, with many variables to be the East coast makes the Broads, a predominantly considered, modelling results are coming closer and freshwater habitat, particularly vulnerable to the closer together. impacts of climate change and sea level rise. Based on probable climate projections, over the These impacts are likely to become increasingly coming 50 years the Broads is likely to see: significant as we move through the coming decades, affecting our water resource, habitats and species, built heritage, navigation, property and • Hotter, drier summers with more cloud-free infrastructure, agriculture and tourism. days and future average temperatures closer to current maximum temperatures, and This summary of the Broads Climate possibly extreme rainfall events. Adaptation Plan outlines the likely impacts of • Slightly wetter, warmer winters with rainfall in climate change and sea level rise on the Broads more intense bursts. and considers adaptation responses. • Streams and the sea getting warmer, with (For more information on the full plan, see associated changes in wildlife and water page 18 of this summary). patterns. • More extremes in the intensity and frequency of rainfall and storms, and possibly heatwaves and drought. These could coincide with surge tide events, creating still higher flood levels. Sea level is rising due to land settlement. In addition, the expansion of water as it warms up suggests that sea level will be at least 30-40cm higher, possibly over a metre higher by the end of the century if greenhouse gas emissions are not In 2014 there were approximately 7.7 million reduced rapidly. If climate ‘tipping points’ of visitors to the wider Broads National Park area irreversible change are reached, perhaps enabling lots of polar land ice to melt, sea levels could be much higher. 4 The changing Broads... ? A summary of the Broads Climate Adaptation Plan 3 A climate-smart response While there may be uncertainty about the rate and magnitude of climate change over the coming decades, ‘uncertainty paralysis’ needs to be avoided. Changes are already occurring and will continue to occur. The decision should not be whether to begin preparing for change, but how much change to prepare for.… it is often cheaper to design for a change than to retrofit for the change later. Dr Jeff Price, Tyndall Centre, University of East Anglia The uncertainty about climate change should not The long-term aim of climate-smart planning is to be a reason to avoid preparing for it. However, we sustain the natural environment and the multiple need climate adaptation responses that are robust, benefits it provides for people and nature. Adaptive informed and flexible. To help develop adaptation actions should also seek to reduce greenhouse gas planning in the Broads we are suggesting using a emissions and improve evidence and understanding ‘climate-smart’ approach. of climate change processes and impacts. Climate-smart planning can be done at a small, local We can test whether our plans will help us adapt to site level (such as a farm, nature reserve or tourist changes in weather, climate change and sea level attraction) or a larger organisational level (such as rise by: a recreation strategy, habitat or species recovery Focusing on future possibilities rather than trying plan, or spatial planning policy). In simple terms it is • to retain the past about adding climate adaptive thinking to our management planning cycle (Fig.1). • Being flexible enough to cope with climate uncertainties • Addressing climate impacts alongside other pressures, such as changes in food production or Implement Define trends in tourism actions and planning monitor purpose and results scope • Considering what to do locally within the context of the wider landscape Evaluate Assess and select climate • Avoiding adaptation actions that actually makes adaption impact and (other) things worse – sometimes known as vulnerabilities options ‘maladaptation’ Identify Review goals, possible objectives and adaptation strategies options Figure 1 Climate-smart planning cycle1 1 Adapted from ‘Climate-Smart Conservation: Putting Adaptation Principles into Practice’ (National Wildlife Federation, 2014) The changing Broads... ? A summary of the Broads Climate Adaptation Plan 5 4 Being climate-smart in We also propose adaptation actions that could help now, while not restricting future choices that may the Broads be available as climate understanding continues to improve. When people are asked why they love the Broads, These and other options would obviously need to the ‘special qualities’ most commonly mentioned be considered in detail, and there are likely to be include: Rivers and open water bodies (‘broads’); some difficult and complex decisions ahead. fens, reed beds and wet woodlands; grazing marshes and ditches; estuary and coast; navigable, Many adaptation choices will need long-term lock-free waterways; farmland; abundant wildlife; planning to gain necessary agreements, change historic structures, especially mills; countryside practice or policy, or gather more evidence of what access on land and water; and the sense of may be possible or acceptable. Reaching a tranquillity, wildness and ‘big skies’. Although this consensus on some actions will be very plan dwells on these special qualities, the wider challenging, with many different interests and needs of people, especially our local communities, needs to be considered. also needs to be at the forefront of thinking. We know that one of the most significant To develop our climate-smart planning challenges likely to face the Broads is the approach for the Broads, we have looked at management of flood risk. At the same time, we likely climate impacts on these special qualities, need to recognise that change will also bring and potential vulnerabilities and adaptation opportunities to enhance the Broads. opportunities (Table 1, page 7) As a starting point for debate and evidence gathering, we have assessed the potential of some For the most significant impacts we consider what of the short-term priorities and longer-term goals could be done to get the best for the Broads in for managing this risk (Section 5, page 12). adapting to the likely changes. Iconic features of the Broads: Bittern (left) and wherries in full sail (right) 6 The changing Broads... ? A summary of the Broads Climate Adaptation Plan Table 1 Main climate impacts and preliminary possible adaptation options (Cost and challenge: 1=low, 5=high) Climate event Significant climate impacts Some possible adaptation Indicative Indicative Some possible ‘low regret’ adaptation and vulnerabilities on the options cost challenge actions area’s special qualities The changing Broads... ? The changing Broads... A. Hotter drier 1. Lack of water for i. Alter water abstraction licensing 2 2 a. Continue review of abstraction licencing to summers abstraction and the or processes seek sustainable solutions for the environment along with lack environment and users of water to flush rivers ii. Hold back water within the 2 2 b. Promote grants to create farm reservoirs floodplain by altering surfaces, and/ and processes to hold back water or adopting more integrated, whole c. Improve monitoring to understand sources catchment water management and flows of pollutants iii.